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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Bombay Shining.....
Markets shrugged off the nervousness and acted positively to the credit policy of RBI. As predicted earlier not much would come in the credit policy and it didn’t actually except for a rise in CRR of 25bps which would suck the liquidity and would help stem the inflation expectations.

Today the nifty crossed 5200 mark the real test would be at 5250 levels and if it can break the 5300 levels than the bears might have little hope of pulling it back and if they are unable to pull the nifty back we might even see 5500 levels soon. So the bulls have 100 points more to score to put real pressure on the bears.

The star performer of the day undoubtedly was Bombay Dyeing it almost crossed the 1k mark. RPL has also crossed 200 levels and looks strong along with RNRL there might be some resistance at these levels for both but if they were to cross 210 and 130 respectively one can see levels of 230-240 for RPL and 135-140 levels for RNRL.

Tomorrow the markets might once again show some signs of nervousness as the BOJ and FED is scheduled to meet tomorrow. But like RBI nothing will come from BOJ and Fed may either cut rate by 25 bps or may do nothing.

We have given recommendation on Modern India Ltd. The company has received permission from Government of Maharashtra, Urban Development Department to develop / redevelop the mill land as per Regulation 58 of Revised Development Control Regulation Gr., Mumbai 1991. It will approximately develop 7.5 lac sq feet land in Mahalaxmi area Mumbai. Modern India Ltd is also planning to set up (IT / ITES SEZ (Information Technology / Information Technology Enabling Services) (Special Economic Zone) 15 Hectare of land at Khopoli and the project will be implemented through a wholly owned subsidiary Company viz. Modern India Property Developers Ltd. The land was acquired by the Company about six months ago at a cost of about Rs 35 Crores and the State Government has already given their recommendation to the Central Government for formal approval of the project.

"If Columbus had an advisory committee he would probably still be at the dock."

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Sesa Goa Board approves Stock Split, Bonus Issue & recommends final dividend
Sesa Goa Ltd has informed that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on April 28, 2008, inter alia, has approved the following:

1. Recommendation of Final Dividend of Rs 30/- per share (i.e. 300%) on the existing capital in addition to Interim Dividend paid @ Rs 15/- per share (i.e. 150%).

The same amount of Final Dividend would also be payable to recipients of Company's shares on approval of merger of Sesa Industries Ltd (SIL) with the Company w.e.f. April 01, 2005.

2. The Board has also recommended the following for approval of the Members through Postal Ballot:

a) Sub-division of the Equity Shares of the Company of the face value of Rs 10/- (Rupees ten) each to the face value of Re 1/- ( Rupee one) each.

b) Issue of Bonus Shares in the proportion of 1 (one) Bonus Share of Re 1/-(Rupee one) each for every 1 (one) fully paid-up Equity Shares of Re 1/- (Rupee one) each.

Nerve before the event
"There are persons who, when they cease to shock us, cease to interest us."

Globally all markets were doing pretty good but our markets were in red with lack lusture trading. This is because if markets don’t shock us than they will cease to have interest in them. Market was actually showing signs of nervousness before the RBI meet slated tomorrow where in much are only expected but not much would come.

RBI has already taken steps secondly today Govt has proposed a 15% export duty on steel products. This kept the market subdued for the major part of the trade and made the market nervous.

One of our research Bhagwati Gas has posted Rs.23.6 mn profit YoY as against Rs. 17.2 mn last year. It is currently quoting at 16 times it 08 earnings. It has procured new plant in Khetrinagar and installation and commissioning work is going on. It is also started decommissioning of 120 tpd plant which will be relocating to Bhandara, Maharashtra.

More over Rotor-1 Ltd having registered office in Russia at 77-B Lenina Street, Kursk, a Russian Company with whom Bhagawati Gases Ltd has entered into Memorandum of Understanding in relation to the bids invited by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC), has been awarded tender by ONGC for Low Frequency Passive Seismic Survey for detection of Direct Hydrocarbon in South Kadi Area of Western Onshore Basin in the state of Gujarat (India).The Contract is valued at 885,300 US Dollars.

Bhagwati Gas seems to be well placed and looks an attractive investment bet for couple of years.

"When people are free to do as they please, they usually imitate each other."

ADAG back...
ADAG is back with a big bang. It was ADAG’s day out, all ADAG stocks were on fire and kept the market buoyant. The inflation numbers were bad and few statements from the FM and PM suggested that it would take some time before the effects of the measures come through thereby keeping the inflation in check. It always happens that the effect of measures takes time to come.

One would think as to why the markets are behaving in opposite manner i.e with higher inflation how our GDP growth can be justifiable. The answer is simple the open interest in Eurodollar trades are diminishing which suggests that the dollar might appreciate. Fed is slated to meet on 30th this month and there are chances that Fed might reduce the rates by 25bps but if they don’t do so i.e if they keep rates untouched than dollar might stop depreciating which will put downwards pressure on commodities.

We can already see the effects on gold and oil which have already started their southward march. It is also speculated that the Fed might actually stop cutting rates and the ECB might just reduce the rates as European Union is experiencing slow down. With ECB reducing rates and Fed keeping rate cut on hold dollar is slated for a bigger appreciation which would further curtail oil and gold prices which in turn would stop the prices of wheat, rice, etc and controlling inflation globally.

Small investors may pick Asian Oil, RDB, Stelco, India Foil, SS Duncan, Bihar Tubes, Martin Burn, HEG, IDBI, IFCI, Punj, HDIL or any other stock where they see more value and wait for the tide to turn in their favour.

"The best things and best people rise out of their separateness; one should be against a homogenized society because every one wants the cream to rise."

Destination India
The moment few broking houses started giving buy calls and traders started jumping into the band wagon, market stoped rising. In any case today was the last day of the settlement and market always behaves to the positions.

After IFCI Arvind Mills made great recovery and we expect news of its land bank J V for joint development at prime location land at Ahmedabad will do wonders for this stock.

Try to catch all realty stocks which will rise in tandem with fall in inflation. There will be huge action in HDIL, DLF, Unitech, Punj etc in next 2 months. We expect DLF to touch again Rs 1000 in next 2 months. This will help all small realty stocks to see new heights such as Network, RDB, SGL Global etc which will give returns in multiples.

Why am I so bullish in Indian stock markets irrespective of all the recent drama, correction, high inflation and slow growth..? I think people call me perennial bull. Yes, I am bull till 2012 and I do not subscribe to the views expressed by wizards on the wire channels which are threatening the prospects as well as life of petty small investors. There is no governance applicable to them.

I am bullish in India irrespective of all near term negatives because I hold that Indian rupee is set to rise to Rs 25 against the dollar in next 5 years and believe or not if my projections come through then we will cross Sensex 40 K very easily and whole globe will come and sit in India. You can’t ignore a country whose currency rises 50% in just 5 years. This is inevitable and therefore my choice of investment will remain India and that too equity.

We have not even seen 1% growth in infrastructure and we are tiring. Bejing infrastructure spending in today’s context is 50 bn USD a year. Bombay is struggling for 1 bn USD. Make your mind broad and think loudly. I am seeing a say where companies will start getting orders of 25000 crs to 50000 crs in one single stretch and when execution takes place the profits will become like RIL profits. What will happen if microsoft will ask 5 mn sq ft space in mumbai and IBM another 5 mn in Chennai and Marks and Spenser consume around 10 mn sq ft....? India has land and minerals which is not there with other countries. We sell minerals and land for gold like arbas sell oil for gold.

Just do not listen to any sick advice and stay invested. Today’s small cap will become mid cap of tomorrow and large cap in 5 years. Any way it is your call at the end of the day. I am bullish and watching every day FII and instituitional sellers sell their holding only to buy at all time high.

Faith is to believe what you do not see; the reward of this faith is to see what you believe.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

RIL, Essar mull units in Venezuela
Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) and the Ruia-owned Essar Oil have submitted proposals to the Venezuelan Government for setting up petrochemicals complex in the oil-rich nation. RIL has also wrapped up a major deal for long-term supply of crude oil for its upcoming Jamnagar refinery.

Jamnagar refinery

Official sources said that RIL would buy 7.5 million tonnes of crude oil from Venezuela for its upcoming export-oriented refinery at Jamnagar in Gujarat. Interestingly, the Venezuelan Oil Minister, Rafael Ramirez, had recently said that PDVSA had held talks with senior RIL officials and had agreed to supply 1.50 lakh barrels a day of crude oil from June under a long-term contract.

Reliance Petroleum CEO, P. M. S. Prasad, was recently in Venezuela to hold talks with PDVSA officials. He reportedly also took up the matter of setting up of a petrochemical complex in that country. A similar proposal is also understood to have been submitted by Essar Oil.

Reliance has been sourcing crude oil from Venezuela, the only OPEC member country from Latin America, for its existing 6.60 lakh barrels a day refinery at Jamnagar. It bought 2.32 million tonnes of oil from Venezuela in 2006-07 and 8.76 lakh tonnes in April-December 2007-08.

Mr. Ramirez had stated that the oil might be used for its 5.80 lakh barrels a day export-oriented refinery coming up adjacent to the existing plant. Chevron Corp of the U.S. has five per cent stake in Reliance Petroleum, a unit of Reliance Industries, which is building the over $6 billion refinery.

Hub

The new RIL refinery, that will make Jamnagar the largest refining hub in the world, is likely to be completed ahead of its original December 2008 deadline. At present, the U.S. is the highest crude oil buyer from Venezuela but is working to diversify its oil basket resulting in huge opportunity to India and its companies.

Singapore hot stocks-S-shares soar after tax cut in China

Shares of Singapore-listed Chinese firms or S-shares surged after a share trading tax cut in China, dealers said.

"The trading tax cut will start a rebound in the Chinese stock markets. Valuations of Chinese companies will improve and that pulls the S-shares along," a dealer said.

The FTSE China Index rose as much as 5 percent to 516.51 points. The index has fallen 32 percent so far this year.

Large cap firms such as rig-builders Cosco Corp and Yangzijiang rose as much as 5.4 and 9.8 per cent each. Sportswear maker China Hongxing jumped as high as 6.9 per cent to an intraday high of S$0.70.

Analysts said the trading tax cut is likely to end a six-month bear market and could boost Chinese stocks by more than 20 percent in the next few weeks.

0303 GMT - Straits Times Index up 0.86 per cent. Shares of Yanlord Land rose as much as 9.1 per cent to S$2.63 with over 2.4 million shares traded on bargain hunting of stocks that are trading below net asset value.

Citigroup analyst Tony Tsang said in a research report that China's property market should start to stabilise and recover after correcting in the last few months.

"Yanlord now trades at 48 percent discount to our 2008 NAV (net asset value). With its landbank predominantly located in prime city-centre areas and with its high product quality, we see strong long-term upside for its landbank," Tsang said.

The stock has fallen about 40 percent since reaching a high of S$4.40 in October.

Straits Times Index up 1.16 percent. Contract electronics firm Venture Corp fell as much as 3.4 percent to S$11.32 after the company an unexpected drop in its first-quarter earnings.

Venture, Singapore's second-largest contract electronics maker, said its net profit fell 20 percent, due to slower orders, a weak U.S. dollar and losses in its investment portfolio.

For more details, double-click [ID:nSIN94740] Credit Suisse kept its investment rating for Venture at "outperform" with a share price target of S$13.70, citing net profit in line with its estimates, despite collateralised debt obligation provisions.

"Share price has rallied from S$10 to S$12 in the last month and may pull back on the negative headline numbers. We would look to accumulate if it falls back closer to S$10," Credit Suisse analyst Keng Hock Lim said in a client note.

R-Power`s Butibori project to begin soon
The 300 mw Group Captive Power Project (GCPP) being set up by Vidarbha Industries Power (VIPL), a special purpose vehicle (SPV) formed by Reliance Power, at Butibori near Nagpur in Maharashtra, will soon enter the construction phase.

Sources said the required land has been acquired and the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board (MPCB) has given the green signal for setting up the project.

Reliance Power will soon award the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the Rs 1500 crore project. The project is expected to take off by 2010, said sources.

The Butibori project is one of the first major power projects being set up in India under the GCPP concept. Power produced from the plant will be mainly supplied to the industrial consumers in Maharashtra at subsidised tariffs.

The project was awarded to Reliance Power by Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC), a nodal development agency of the Maharashtra government, through a competitive international bidding process.

The project will be beneficial to the consumers and developers alike. Industrial consumers will get discounted tariff upto 25 paise a unit and developers will garner better returns as the tariff will be higher than long-term power purchase agreements (PPA), said sources.

Reliance Power has ensured coal linkage for the project from Western Coalfields. Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC) has allotted the land and committed adequate water from the Wadgaon dam near Nagpur.

Other statutory approvals and environmental clearances are expected soon, said sources. Reliance Power is setting up 13 power projects with a combined capacity of 28,200 mw. This includes two ultra mega power projects of 4000 mw capacity at Sasan and Krishnapatinam.

Videocon rings MTN for GSM foray

Datacom Solutions in talks with South African telecom major for investments, technology.

Datacom Solutions, promoted by consumer electronic goods maker Videocon Industries, is close to roping in South African telecom major MTN group as a partner for its GSM foray in the country.

According to sources, Datacom, which was scouting for a partner to bring in investments and technology, has short-listed MTN. Discussions with the South African company are in the final stage and a deal is expected to be signed soon.

It was not immediately clear how much stake Datacom was willing to offer a foreign partner, or whether the agreement would be based on a different model.

When contacted, Videocon Industries Chairman and Managing Director Venugopal Dhoot said the company was in discussions with various players.

He declined to give any details, citing a non-disclosure agreement with foreign telecom companies Datacom was in discussions with.

Responding to an e-mail, an MTN spokesperson said that “in line with its vision to be a leading telecom services provider in emerging markets, the group continued to seek appropriate, value enhancing expansion opportunities that meet its investment criteria.” However, the spokesperson would not comment “on specific activities at this time”.

Datacom is one of eight players that have been recently given licences to operate pan Indian mobile networks. Some others are Unitech group, Shyam-Sistema, S-tel and BPL-promoted Loop Telecom.

Numerous international telecos and private equity funds have shown interest in investing in these new Indian telecom companies which will require large funds to build their networks.

Among these companies are AT&T, United Arab Emirates-based National Telecom Company and Russia’s Alpha Group.

Current government policy allows foreign direct investment in telecom up to 74%.

MTN group is a mobile telecommunications company with operations in over 21 countries across Africa and West Asia, including Cameroon, Congo, Cyprus, Ghana and Afghanistan.

MTN, launched in 1994, had more than 40 million subscribers as of December 2006.

Datacom, which has received GSM spectrum in the Tamil Nadu circle, has lined up an investment of over Rs 6,000 crore for its GSM rollout.

The company recently signed on former Alcatel-Lucent chief Ravi Sharma to head the venture, the first instance of a global telecom infrastructure head moving over to a service provider.

The company has been awarded Universal Access Service Licence (UASL), which permits it to begin telecom operations in all the 23 circles.

The company also leads the queue for spectrum allocation in these circles, except Mumbai and Delhi, where it is in second position. Datacom expects to rope in over 40 million subscribers in five years and break even in a couple of years.

IDFC arm to raise $700m
Indian infrastructure specialist IDFC Private Equity is raising a new $700 million fund to buy stakes in firms expected to thrive as the country modernises its rag-tag power and transport networks.

IDFC's MD for investment, Satish Mandhana, said fund would close in the next two to three weeks, with 85% of money from abroad. Foreign investors are increasingly drawn to Indian infrastructure, as government estimates about $500 billion will be needed to build new roads, ports, airports and power plants by 2012 to keep pace with a fast growing economy.

Around 30% of that spending is expected to come from private sector, with rest split between federal and state governments.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

HOEC - Updates

Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd (HOEC) has informed that the Company has conducted a drill stem test (DST) covering about 17 meters (in three Zones) out of a total of about 45 meters in eight gas bearing reservoir zones in Dirok-1 discovery well in block AAP-ON-94/1.

The DST has resulted in flow of natural gas at an initial rate of approximately 6 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) in the aggregate from the three tested zones along with condensate at an initial rate of approximately 75 barrels per day through 6.35 mm bean, indicating discovery being of potential commercial interest.

The Company (the Operator), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd and Oil India Ltd presently have 40.323%, 43.548% and 16.129% participating interest respectively in the exploration phase.

Oil India Ltd, the licensee of the block, has an option under the Production Sharing Contract to acquire additional 30% participating interest in the development and production phase. Should, Oil India Ltd exercise this option, the revised participating interest in the development and production phase shall be 26.882%, 29.032% and 44.086% for the Company, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd and Oil India Ltd respectively.

RPL plans setting up unit in Kuwait

In line with its plans to set up greenfield projects outside India, Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance group is considering setting up a polypropylene unit in Kuwait.

Reliance Petroleum Ltd (RPL) has begun the spadework, and is in the process of completing necessary surveys for the project, company sources said.

The company already has operations in the Gulf states to market polypropylene. If this project fructifies, it will be Reliance’s first unit outside India. The company is in talks with a couple of players to join in the polypropylene project.

The company is also in the process of recruiting manpower for the project, according to sources familiar with the developments.

Reliance is Asia’s largest polypropylene manufacturer and with a combined capacity of over one million tonnes, it figures among the top eight polypropylene producers in the world. The company has a 70 per cent share in the Indian market and caters to three per cent of the world’s consumption of polypropylene.

Third refinery

Reliance Industries (RIL) is also looking to set up a refinery project in Kuwait. “Reliance is exploring the Gulf region as an option for its proposed third refinery,” the sources said.

Kuwait Petroleum Corp has said in the past that it was in talks with Reliance for a partnership in refining and petrochemicals projects together with Dow Chemicals. A Reliance spokesperson said that the company has been carrying out feasibility studies in various countries, including Kuwait, but he refused to comment on any specific project.

Exploring partnerships

RIL has also signed an MoU with GAIL to explore opportunities for petrochemical plants outside India.

RIL and GAIL are already working together in specific areas in the natural gas sector, as in gas pipelines and for city gas distribution.

Last year, the two companies listed ten countries, among them Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Vietnam, Australia, South Africa, and Russia, as likely locations for chemical projects of up to two million tonnes. At Jamnagar, RPL has completed 90 per cent of work on a new refinery coming up within an SEZ.

The refinery is likely to be commissioned in September this year.

IFCI vaults 15.6% higher on strong Q4 numbers

IFCI led the volume chart, with around 3.45 crore shares changing hands. It ended the day at Rs 58.80, 15.63 per cent higher as the firm announced a strong set of Q4 numbers. Net profit has shot up 146.5 per cent to Rs 318.94 crore in the fourth quarter ended March 2008 on a y-o-y basis, while its net sales grew 58.8 per cent to Rs 574.4 crore.

The stock hit an intra-day high of Rs 59.90 and a low of Rs 50.05. The stock had hit a 52-week high of Rs 121.2 on December 17, 2007, and a 52-week low of Rs 36.60 on April 24, 2007. The stock has increased 44 per cent in the past one month alone.

Upbeat on Wall Street

Stock futures rose early Friday after Internet giant Google defied the economic slowdown and posted a hefty quarterly profit, good news that was balanced by more pain in financial sector results.

About three hours before the market open, Nasdaq and S&P futures were higher and indicating a positive start for Wall Street despite mixed earnings results from the most recent company reports.

Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) reported a 30% jump in quarterly profit late Thursday. The company also reported a rise in its paid clicks, quieting fears of slowing growth. Paid clicks measure how often users click on text ads.

Google shares surged 15% in early trading in Frankfurt Friday morning.

Stocks finished mixed Thursday as investors weighed a string of earnings. Merrill Lynch disappointed investors with a big loss while IBM turned in a solid performance.

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) showed there was still more pain in financial sector, as the nation's largest bank reported a loss of $5.1 billion loss that was worse than expected as it announced another $12.1 billion in writedowns.

Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), another stock in the Dow 30, also is due to post its quarterly results before the opening bell.

Motion is on
Market closed 85 points down which I see no reason to worry for. Tomorrow is the last day of the settlement and therefore some nervousness is bound to be there. Some counters where retail has gone long will correct and some where short built will fire is the buzz. The clear winners from today’s perspectives was IFCI which broke 200 DMA and on the BOD meet the air will be cleared. The deal could happen at Rs 108 or more. This will spark huge upside in IFCI and consequentially in IDBI.

I had mentioned about IFCI yesterday which has now come in the media today. Now the next bullet stocks could be R Com and R Power. RPL has crossed Rs 195 which was the high in this vallan giving exit to all those who were stuck. Now the stock will start roaring as very few are long in this counter.

In cash segment ANIL SPECIAL STEEL is set to explode to new height as it has crossed its 200 DMA as well as its previous high giving exit to all petty holders. A very strong hand had entered ANIL last time at Rs 36 and took it to Rs 60 has tried to suppress the price till Rs 20 by selling short. However by doing this his average cost has gone up to Rs 45 plus and therefore the said fund will take the share price to anything above Rs 85 to 100 the potential price of the stock which reflect its earnings as well as its huge landbank in the most costliest part of the world JAIPUR. However the decision to buy or not and whether to buy in full flow must be taken by doing your own due diligence because we have vested interest in the stock.

Our calls on mid cap and small caps are going with great guns. Though Gremach opened the circuit today I would suggest to enter this stock at Rs 140 levels again because it has potential to touch Rs 376.

You have seen the stock picking ability of I DEVELOP. Entire world was shorting Tisco at Rs 520 levels where we suggested buy Tisco which has now touched Rs 800. Similar was the case with Bombay Dyeing, RIL, RPL, RNRL. All other stocks selected by us will fire sooner than later.

We have some virgin stories too for you. Dharmsi Morarji is a great buy at current level due to restructuring exercise and interest of India’s no 1 broking house. This stock is worth Rs 100. More we will let you in course of time.

Never mistake motion for action.

Be fighting champions...
Jina Yahah Marna Yahah Isske siva jana kahah ….if this slogan could have been digested by investors probably they could have been better off. From 14700 to 16700 market recovered and the very old stories are back in fashion. Bears kept on shorting and stocks kept on rising. In that sense bears had the first bad month i e April. They have been caught on wrong foot. Now it is just matter of time when we can see Nifty 5300.

MTNL and Power grid in full control of bulls whereas Peninsula was the star performer after DLF rose handsomely. Yes, Mr Singh will be a worried man when he saw his market cap becoming 50% from the peak and will come with magic wonders sooner than later as no promoters can see their own stock getting hammered.

JP Hydro, J P Associates, RNRL and Petronet LNG were all I Develop calls which have outperformed. We have given more than what you all have expected from us and yet we are not trying to take any credit on this account because we know you all have suffered a lot. Our objective is to prove and create base trusted and loyal members base whom we can provide services for a longer period of time. We really do not want any fly by night kind of traders who try to shift their failures to us.

Yesterday I had received a report from a leading broking house for Sensex target of 19 to 21 K. I was laughing because I could not have cried now. It the same broking house advocating 12K target when market was falling and had to face severe margin problems and bad debts.

It is so strange to see bears turning bulls. Who has lost in the process…? None other than investors who listen to them…? We had been only on one side of market and it is Bull Run. Corrections may last for 3 months, 6 months, 12 months or even 18 months yet it is not called a bear run. On the one hand our Hon”ble FM still maintains that GDP may cross 9% against all odds which means the man at the helm of affairs knows something which we do not know and we have to wait.

We are in perennial Bull Run of commodities and hence equities too. These kinds of corrections are not new for I Develop and we have always shouldered the responsibility to take you out from such crisis. Those are with me are smiling and those taken their own call are now cursing their luck as usual.

Our call in IFCI is still wire at Rs 82 ( post crash) though it touched as low of Rs 32 in the crash. We are very sure that in next 2 to 3 weeks IFCI will cross our call intonation price once again. Something is set to be announced in next 7 days which bring back IFCI valuation to Rs 107 the basic core price where LIC had decided to convert its debt into equity. It was real common sense for those who have sold IFCI at 32 that they had committed a grave mistake. Even at that time I had written about the fact that LIC the premier institute having converted debt at Rs 107 is also capable to over the management control of the IFCI. This is the reason IFCI rose by 20% today with huge volumes and in post closing session on NSE also the buyers were more than 2 mn shares.

IFCI is set to roar till Rs 107 at least in coming months for sure Rs 82 comes ahead of Rs 107. Now is that why did we imitated buy call in IDBI. IDBI was ignored for a very long time and still the rumors are there that one big block is for sell in IDBI at 116. Since the IFCI deal could take center stage in 3 digits, IDBI too will start firing. Reportedly our sources says that the big block could be grabbed in IDBI at 116 in just next 2/3 days which will provide another good platform for IDBI to take the heat on.

For bulls there is no trouble this time in rolling over the positions whereas bears are paying huge mark to mark in carry over positions. There is also possibility that Nifty might rise by another 150 points in next 2 days only bear short covering. May is the month where the real drama is required to be seen. Whether Nifty crosses 5312…? Once that happens then at least dozen more broking houses will start giving buy call in market with Sensex target of 21 K. The last thing on the earth the man who sees tomorrow is now in bear mode will turn bull only after this level is crossed as he openly maintains in the public forum than market will not test new high in this calendar.

You become a champion by fighting one more round. When things are tough, you fight one more round.

Monday, April 21, 2008

The Sensex continued its winning streak this on the back of string Q4 numbers for

the IT companies coupled by improved global economic scenario. The Sensex gained

nearly 5 percent to end the week at 16481.20, while the Nifty ended by nearly 4.8

percent. Bulls dominated the whole week with support from good numbers and a

great guidance from the IT major Infosys on Tuesday. This was backed by good set

of numbers from HCL Technologies and midcaps like Mindtree Consulting and Mastek.

The BSE IT index gained 13.3 percent and was a clear winner, followed by Consumer

Durables and Realty which gained nearly 6 percent. Although it was a short one, the

past week could be viewed as something the market really needed the most.

US markets continued to rally and kept pace with gains in Dalal street with decent

gains by the end of the week. The Dow and S&P gained nearly 4 percent, where as

the Nasdaq gained nearly 5 percent. Better than expected earnings results from the

likes of JP Morgan, IBM, United Technologies, Honeywell, and Google helped improve

the sentiment in the markets and underlined the view that the economy is not bad as everyone expected. After good set of numbers from the IT majors and financial

firms, the market will be looking forward for the results from Microsoft, Boeing and

Apple.

Key Corporate Earnings/ Events in the coming week:

Domestic Markets:

* More Q4 numbers continue to pour in

US Markets:

* Home sales & orders for durable goods for March, weekly jobless claims, and the

Michigan consumer sentiment survey

Stocks to Watch in the coming week

  1. Megasoft - Rs 95
  2. Polaris Software-Rs 103
  3. Exide Ind - Rs 74
  4. IL&FS Investment Managers- Rs 249
  5. HCL Infosys - Rs 191

Technical View & Suggestion : Only to Premium Subscribers

Friday, April 18, 2008

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Inflation Update

April 17, 2008

Weekly y-o-y WPI inflation decreased to 7.14% for the week ended April 5, 2008 compared to previous week’s level of 7.41%. The WPI index rose 0.6 points to 226.6 from 226.0 in the previous week.

Weight in the Index

Index in previous week

Index in week ended Apr 5 2008

Increase

Contribution to inflation

WPI index

100.00%

226

226.6

0.27%

Primary articles

22.03%

235.1

236

0.38%

0.08%

Food

15.40%

227.2

228.5

0.57%

0.09%

Non-food

6.14%

226.6

226.4

-0.09%

-0.01%

Minerals

0.48%

595.8

595.8

0.00%

0.00%

Fuel

14.23%

341.4

342

0.18%

0.03%

Manufacturing

63.75%

197.1

197.6

0.25%

0.16%

Food products

11.54%

203

203.1

0.05%

0.01%

Basic Metal alloys & metal products

8.34%

290.8

293.5

0.93%

0.08%

Machine Tools

8.36%

168.2

168.9

0.42%

0.03%

Total

0.27%

Source : Bloomberg

Week-on-week increase in inflation index

0.27%

Base effect

-0.56%

Rounding off impact

0.02%

Increase in Yoy inflation

-0.27%

Source : Bloomberg

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