Crazy 4 High drama is being projected by media whether vote of confidence will go through or not…? Horse trading too is on. Speculation rate is 40 paisa for UPA and Rs 2 against. What does it all mean.. I have been a strong interpreter of things to happen whether you agree or not is different issue. I have been trying my best in your interest. Today when the whole world on the basis of some biased media reports is unable to decide what is going to happen on 22nd I think it is high time to know the pros and cons. We should always try to read between the lines to the possible best conclusion. RPL share price corrected by almost 15% the moment OIL secretary was changed which is a clear indication of SP ruling and UPA could have dared to take such a bold measure without its nos being set. In this sense it is well said that market knows it all. Two does BJP wants Govt to collapse and the answer is no because it was even BJP policy to remain in touch with US. Only LEFT is against this move and even within left there is split. Though the odds may remain equal till Tuesday, I think die hard speculator has a case to gamble and if they need to gamble then I think SBI is only one stock where they can put their odds. If Govt fails then chances SBI going down by 20 to 30% impossible because of the fact the price is already corrected without FII selling in this counter. FII limit is still frozen at 20% and will remain so. But if Govt survives then SBI could become Rs 1600 in no time. It is open secret that that LEFT has prevented Govt to raise the FII limit from 20 to 49%. When the RBI holding in SBI was transferred to GOI, SBI ceased as a subsidiary of the CENTRAL Bank and became a normal PSU bank like all other PSU bank. However the SBI has not been repealed so far which is governed by RBI Act. The Hon’ble FM had gone on record no of times that he wants to push through the baking reforms. Now the ball is set for rolling. No left there to stop them. The first stock which should favour because to Govt survival is SBI and FII will start buying the blue chip stock at least till Rs 1600 where they had subscribed to the rights issue along with GOI and MF’s. From Rs 1250 to Rs 1600 is close to 30% return is a decent return in any form of speculation. If Govt falls nothing bad will happen with this stock because even then FII will not sell. The new Govt post elections will take up the same stand and reforms will proceed. Therefore SBI will remain star performer. One thing one should not forget is that UPA is betting on Govt whereas BJP and LEFT are betting on nothing. If UPA succeed it could be fortune turner for next 6 months which I can not elaborate here. Even before Bush goes he will bless India for the kind at of MADAM. This will be big mileage for UPA politically as well as economically. Inflation stabilised and could start falling, political uncertainty will be at rest in next 3 days, oil collapsing ( satta broken for sure ), metal too falling. These factors for short term may not appeal to short sellers as their minds are corrupted and could remain so but in medium to long term will matter for sure. Watch CRAZY 4. Think like a man of action and act like a man of thought. |
Monday, July 21, 2008
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
BOJ Cuts Growth Forecast, Keeps Interest Rate at 0.5% The Bank of Japan cut its economic growth forecast, raised its inflation estimate and kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent, saying higher commodity prices are hurting the expansion. The world's second-largest economy will grow 1.2 percent in the year ending March 31, slower than the 1.5 percent forecast on April 30, the central bank said in a statement in Tokyo. Consumer prices excluding fresh food will climb 1.8 percent, more than the 1.1 percent projected three months ago, it said. Growth is ``slowing further'' because higher energy and raw-materials costs are discouraging businesses and consumers from spending, the bank said. ``Downside risks to the economy demand attention,'' it said, indicating the bank has no plans to resume a policy of gradually raising interest rates anytime soon. ``They're more concerned about the downside risks to growth,'' said Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, who used to work at the bank. ``Unless wage rates pick up, the bank isn't so concerned about inflation.'' In April, the central bank shelved a policy calling for higher borrowing costs. The benchmark rate, doubled in February 2007, is the lowest among major economies. The yen traded at 105.62 per dollar at 3:59 p.m. in Tokyo compared with 105.80 before the announcement. The yield on Japan's 10-year bond fell 3.5 basis points to 1.545 percent. |
Inflation major challenge for government: PM Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday said curbing inflation and maintaining growth momentum was a major challenge for the government. “It's not a typical inflation, it's influenced by global factors,” Singh was reported as saying. India's headline inflation during the week ended June 28 touched a 13-year high of 11.89 percent, while the growth rate of industrial production decelerated to a six-year low of 3.8 percent. In view of soaring inflation, economists have expressed doubts if India would log an eight percent growth this fiscal, compared to nine percent last year. |
India to offer oil blocks, open acreage in 2009/10 |
India Sugar Output May Miss Forecast, Boosting Prices India's sugar output, the second- biggest in the world, may fall 25 percent next year, more than previously estimated, helping to ease a global glut. Production may total 20 million metric tons in the year to September, 2009, compared with an estimated 26.3 million tons this year, said Vinay Kumar, managing director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. International Sugar Organization this month forecast output at 22 million tons. Raw sugar traded in New York was the worst performer after zinc in the past two years on the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index as growers from Brazil to India boosted output after prices rose to a 25-year high. The sweetener gained 14 percent in the past month. ``Farmers have moved away from sugar cane,'' Kumar said in a phone interview. Growers are planting crops including corn, rice and soybeans because of higher prices, he said. Sugar for August delivery on India's National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange rose as much as 3 percent to 1,610 rupees per 100 kilograms. The contract traded at 1,605 rupees at 11:32 a.m. in Mumbai. Raw sugar futures traded on ICE Futures U.S., the former New York Board of Trade, dropped 2.9 percent to 13.59 cents a pound yesterday. The most-active contract closed at a 25-year high of 19.3 cents a pound on Feb. 3, 2006. The National Federation of sugar mills make up nearly half of India's output of the sweetener. · Surplus Global refined sugar production will probably exceed demand by 2 million tons in the 12 months through March 2009, according to Lausanne, Switzerland-based researcher Kingsman SA estimates. Indian cane growers planted the crop across 4.31 million hectares (10.7 million acres) by July 11, 19 percent less than a year earlier, the farm ministry said last week. In comparison, area under rice expanded 6 percent to 9.23 million hectares and soybeans were planted in 23 percent more area from a year ago. Corn climbed to a record $7.9925 a bushel on June 27 amid concerns all-time high crude oil prices may increase demand for biofuel made from the grain, while soybeans reached $16.3675, their highest ever, on July 3 after the U.S. farmers planted less area to the crop. Refined sugar output in the eight months ended June was 25.8 million tons, down from 27.8 million tons a year ago, as harvests in Maharashtra were delayed because of rain, and mills in Uttar Pradesh refused to process the crop because of a price dispute with the state government, the federation's Kumar said. · Exports A smaller crop may halve India's exports to 2 million tons, the Federation's Kumar said. ``We will continue to export sugar next year though the quantity will not be the same,'' he said. ``Removal of export incentives and better domestic prices may discourage exports.'' India's government will end a freight subsidy of as much as 1,450 rupees ($34) a ton on Sept. 30, reducing Indian exporters' ability to compete with Brazilian and Thai suppliers. The South Asian nation may have a stockpile of 12 million tons in the new crop year beginning Oct. 1 and local demand may total 22 million tons, Kumar said. |
Ranbaxy gets shareholders nod |
Economy is not slowing down: CII Strongly denying that economy is slowing down, CII President K V Kamath on Monday said, one has to see India Inc's performance in the next two quarters to pass a judgement. Pointing out that corporates have an investment pipeline of USD 700 billion to USD 750 billion, Kamath, also the Managing Director and CEO of ICICI Bank, said there are reports that order book of companies now is "much higher". "I am not seeing slowdown," he said at a CII function here and later interacting with media. He wondered how some people were talking about slowdown. "Where slowdown scenario has come," he added. Inflation and surging oil and commodity prices are challenges but noted that "what's insulating us is the huge pipeline of investment that's happening" and also the fact that services sector contributes to around 60 per cent of India's GDP, said Kamath. Corporate India has an investment pipeline of USD 700 billion to USD 750 billion, Kamath said, adding that there are reports that order book of companies now is "much higher" than it was at the same time last year. "Investment is not going to be a challenge," he said further. |
Videocon identifies 100 sites for logistics centres Consumer durables major Videocon Industries has identified sites in more than 100 cities for setting up logistics centres under a new joint venture with Japanese firms Mitsui and Hitachi. |
Govt allots Latua iron ore mines to Ispat Industries The Mines Ministry has approved the allocation of Latua iron ore mine to Ispat, a government source said. The Jharkhand government had in February this year sought Centre's approval for allocating mining lease of 520 hectares of Latua mines, which has an estimated reserve of over 100 million tons and iron content of 64 to 65 per cent, to Ispat Industries. "We have recommended Latua iron ore mine in Chaibasa to Ispat Industries, but are yet to receive the letter of allocation from the Centre," a senior official of the Mines Department in Jharkhand said. When contacted, a spokesperson of Ispat Industries declined to comment. Ispat Industries had signed a memorandum of understanding with Jharkhand government in 2007 for setting up a 2.8 mn tons greenfield steel plant in West Singhbhum district with an estimated investment of Rs 7,000 crore. The company plans to scale up the production capacity of the proposed plant to 5 mn tons. The steel major would require a total of 250 mn tons of iron ore for a span of 30 years when its plant reaches optimum production capacity of 5 mn tons. |
BEML bags 2 African orders BEML Ltd has announced two more mining equipment export orders totally worth Rs 44.50 crore from Tunisia and Malawi. These are its fourth in a week after two orders of Rs 207 crore from Indonesia. The defence PSU will export 35 equipments valued at Rs 21.50 crore to Tunisia and 18 equipments for Rs 13 crore to Malawi. The equipment include small bull dozers to back hoe loaders, wheel loaders and hydraulic excavators. With an order book of Rs 4,000 crore already, BEML expects this to surpass Rs 5,000 crore this year. - |
Mobile cos may be charged for excess 2G spectrum The new formula being suggested by DoT will do away with the process of allocating spectrum without any upfront fee. This means that an existing operator, such as Bharti, will have to pay for the additional 5.8 Mhz that it already holds in some circles, such as Delhi. |
SAT dismisses appeal against RPower’s IPO The Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) gave on Monday a clean chit to Anil Ambani’s firm Reliance Power for its initial public offer (IPO) saying the company had made all disclosures about shares acquired by promoters at face value. |
SHCIL ties up with IDBI Bank |
IFCI will be bidding for IIBI bad loans this week IFCI, the beleaguered financial instituion, will this week bid to buy non-performing assets (NPAs) of the now-shut IIBI Ltd. It plans to revive these assets and recover money from them to add to its net profit, the company's chief executive officer Atul Kumar Rai said. "There are 25 buckets of about Rs 40 crore each by book value of NPAs with IIBI. We will bid for some of those by the end of this week," Rai told. He said the company was yet to decide on how many buckets it will bid for and at what price. The Kolkata-based state-run financier IIBI was closed down after being declared sick. IFCI is looking to enter into new business areas to maintain a steady flow of income, Rai said. "As a business strategy, simple lending will not give us returns over a longer period. We can own long-term assets which will give us income over a long term," he added. |
KNOW YOUR STOCK Yesterday US market fell on recession concerns whereas Asia withheld on CSFB comments that Asia is set to bottom out in second half. The fact is that after 614 points spectacular rally some healing was must and therefore the small correction. After rally of 500/600 points market will correct 200/300 points. The stocks which are on recovery mode will not fall much even when sensex falls whereas in upmove they will rise faster than others. This is sign of Bull run and not relief rally. Stock with high interest goes up very fast. This gives an open invitation to bears to go short and then the game starts. Historically normal traders are unable to catch the speed of shark traders. I think those who had earned in the bear onslaught from 15500 to 12900 must have already matched their Balance Sheet. It is like CASINO. I was there in MACAU casino yesterday night to see how these casino works in comparison to our Exchanges. One friend of mine earned as high as 3.44 lac HK dollars in just 15 minutes which is equivalent to 21 lac Rs. I told him boss this is huge money why do n't you stop and take away this....? He says SORRY luck is with me and I will play the whole night. I will win couple of mn HKD. I went to see MACAU life and when I came back late night my friend had lost 3.44 HKD plus 5 lac HKD and yet he was hoping to recover the same. The passion is never ending. I tried with 100 HKD and I realised that it is nothing less than our F & O experience. Nobody can take away money from F & O. You win 9 times but when you lose on tenth time all you lose is profit plus capital. There is methodology in F & O as well as casion speculation. You bet only 10% of your net wealth so that you have loss bearing capacity. F & O you can stand with margin however big it is becuase your exposure is limited. The bottom line is very simple. You know your stock and its intrisic value and for that even if you have to pay small cost it really does not matter. Compare the cost on per share basis then only you can afford to spend. Say I am buying 50000 Jeyswal. If I have the report at Rs 50000 my cost is just Rs 1 per share. Re 1 is less than the volatility cost and hence affordable. This can compensate more than required. If I know the valuation is Rs 188 then I can buy at every fall every day 5000 shares each and when it rises I starts selling 5000 each and the trading can result in redcuing my cost to NIL and if I am able to sell at 188 then consider my returns. This is called INDUSTRY way. You can earn; you are entitled to earn but always know your stock before you buy in bulk. Do not look at U S markets every day now. They are going to fall but Indian markets will rise irrespective of global markets. OIL has to fall and OIL will support Asian countries. CMM has potential to hit at least 2 upper circuits of 20% each and then 5 to 7 10% once the story is out in media. I was speaking to some funds here and they too have shown very keen interest in this sector. A HK Hedge Fund has already small exposure in Appollo as well as Premier Healthcare and they says this sector has to outperform in any market. This is the time you are getting CMM at throw away price. It has valuation of Rs 150 crs only for existing hosptial. If the deal is announced this will rise the way G E rose and therefore ideally one should take risk only when nobody is buying and when the buying starts sell at every rise and reduce your costs. It seems media is aware about the story and it could hit deck any moment. Rest is your call. I am not pushing this story. We have a vested interest in the stock. |
Mill Time.... Fear continues as the circulation of vested mails and sms continues. We always have some fundamental logic while selecting the stock. We have again initiated buy call on R Power because we strongly believe that A Singh factor will bring much required coal to this gr come what it may and coal would definitely improve the margins of the power. Arvind Mills today announced to take the restructuring to the AGM which means the wait for land development of 7 bn rs is over. The one man army has big passion for mills because mills do not incur cost for acquiring lands. The major cost which can fluctuate and erode the margins of infrastructures firms is not applicable to mills. They have to spend only cost of construction which generally comes from booking and hence there is no cost involved in any manner. It has only profit and profit. He is also passionately accumulated RDB Ind only on the same ground that RDB’s land bank is 3 decade old and hence has no cost. It will report only profit and profit. Now the Bull known for stock picking which had turned bearish in India since last year have started picking up mill stocks only on these premises. Market will continue to pose 2 views till the time the fog of voting is cleared. Those who can trade with risk may be able to cash trading gains whereas those can’t take risk must stay away from the market. For small investors there is always an opportunity to pick up some value stock like CMM Hospital, Silversmith, Jeyswal, Gremach or MSP.SBI trade could give nothing less than Rs 50 plus whereas RIL could see gain of as high as Rs 70. Arvind Mills even if somebody had traded intra day the loss is zero. This is possible only if you can underwrite risk involved. Jeyswal Neco matter is tossed up in the parliament which itself suggest that this is worth investing. This has proved our identification of the stock as well as intrinsic value. Market closed at 4040 which is half full and half empty. With all negative factors still hovering around such as vote of account, inflation, credit policy, global weakness, delayed monsoon which boosting the sell side and favoring bears. They are greedy with their target of 2500. On the other hand, the most conservative funds like George Soros, Capital, Janus, Alliance, BAS etc have started picking stocks in India on pure valuations knowing all negatives. They believe that it is the best time to buy. They are ready to see Sensex 4900 in next 2 to 3 months on pure inflows. Game is wide open. I am on bull’s side and you decide which side you want to jump. My favorite stocks are RIL, Reliance Capital, RPL, RNRL, SBI, Century, B Dyeing, IFCI, A Mills, IDBI and hence I would restrict myself recommending only these stocks in A gr whereas you all know my favorite stocks in cash. As soon as we attract enough attention in the world to play a part in it, we are set rolling like a ball which will never again be at rest. |
Monday, July 7, 2008
IDFC plans logistics chain, eyes partners |
Deal will come to Parliament, allow us to go to IAEA, NSG Noting the concerns about the deal, he said "I agree to come to Parliament before I proceed to operationalise (the deal). What can be more reasonable than this?" Breaking his silence on the nearly fortnight-long standoff between the UPA and the Left parties on the issue, he told senior journalists "If Parliament feels you (government) have done some wrong, so be it." "All that I want is the authority to proceed with the process of negotiations through all stages like the IAEA and NSG that will not not tie down the hands of the country," he said in reply to questions at his residence after he launched the National Action Plan on Climate Change. |
PM leaves for G-8 Summit in Japan; to meet Bush over nuclear deal Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday left here on a three-day visit to Japan for attending G-8 summit on whose sidelines he will meet US President George W Bush and discuss progress on the Indo-US nuclear deal. |
PM leaves for G-8 Summit in Japan; to meet Bush over nuclear deal Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday left here on a three-day visit to Japan for attending G-8 summit on whose sidelines he will meet US President George W Bush and discuss progress on the Indo-US nuclear deal. |
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