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Tuesday, July 15, 2008

KNOW YOUR STOCK

Yesterday US market fell on recession concerns whereas Asia withheld on CSFB comments that Asia is set to bottom out in second half. The fact is that after 614 points spectacular rally some healing was must and therefore the small correction. After rally of 500/600 points market will correct 200/300 points. The stocks which are on recovery mode will not fall much even when sensex falls whereas in upmove they will rise faster than others.

This is sign of Bull run and not relief rally. Stock with high interest goes up very fast. This gives an open invitation to bears to go short and then the game starts. Historically normal traders are unable to catch the speed of shark traders. I think those who had earned in the bear onslaught from 15500 to 12900 must have already matched their Balance Sheet.

It is like CASINO. I was there in MACAU casino yesterday night to see how these casino works in comparison to our Exchanges. One friend of mine earned as high as 3.44 lac HK dollars in just 15 minutes which is equivalent to 21 lac Rs. I told him boss this is huge money why do n't you stop and take away this....? He says SORRY luck is with me and I will play the whole night. I will win couple of mn HKD. I went to see MACAU life and when I came back late night my friend had lost 3.44 HKD plus 5 lac HKD and yet he was hoping to recover the same. The passion is never ending.

I tried with 100 HKD and I realised that it is nothing less than our F & O experience. Nobody can take away money from F & O. You win 9 times but when you lose on tenth time all you lose is profit plus capital.

There is methodology in F & O as well as casion speculation. You bet only 10% of your net wealth so that you have loss bearing capacity. F & O you can stand with margin however big it is becuase your exposure is limited.

The bottom line is very simple. You know your stock and its intrisic value and for that even if you have to pay small cost it really does not matter. Compare the cost on per share basis then only you can afford to spend. Say I am buying 50000 Jeyswal. If I have the report at Rs 50000 my cost is just Rs 1 per share. Re 1 is less than the volatility cost and hence affordable. This can compensate more than required. If I know the valuation is Rs 188 then I can buy at every fall every day 5000 shares each and when it rises I starts selling 5000 each and the trading can result in redcuing my cost to NIL and if I am able to sell at 188 then consider my returns. This is called INDUSTRY way. You can earn; you are entitled to earn but always know your stock before you buy in bulk.

Do not look at U S markets every day now. They are going to fall but Indian markets will rise irrespective of global markets. OIL has to fall and OIL will support Asian countries.

CMM has potential to hit at least 2 upper circuits of 20% each and then 5 to 7 10% once the story is out in media. I was speaking to some funds here and they too have shown very keen interest in this sector. A HK Hedge Fund has already small exposure in Appollo as well as Premier Healthcare and they says this sector has to outperform in any market. This is the time you are getting CMM at throw away price. It has valuation of Rs 150 crs only for existing hosptial. If the deal is announced this will rise the way G E rose and therefore ideally one should take risk only when nobody is buying and when the buying starts sell at every rise and reduce your costs. It seems media is aware about the story and it could hit deck any moment. Rest is your call. I am not pushing this story. We have a vested interest in the stock.

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