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Monday, July 21, 2008

Crazy 4

High drama is being projected by media whether vote of confidence will go through or not…? Horse trading too is on. Speculation rate is 40 paisa for UPA and Rs 2 against. What does it all mean..

I have been a strong interpreter of things to happen whether you agree or not is different issue. I have been trying my best in your interest. Today when the whole world on the basis of some biased media reports is unable to decide what is going to happen on 22nd I think it is high time to know the pros and cons.

We should always try to read between the lines to the possible best conclusion. RPL share price corrected by almost 15% the moment OIL secretary was changed which is a clear indication of SP ruling and UPA could have dared to take such a bold measure without its nos being set. In this sense it is well said that market knows it all. Two does BJP wants Govt to collapse and the answer is no because it was even BJP policy to remain in touch with US. Only LEFT is against this move and even within left there is split.

Though the odds may remain equal till Tuesday, I think die hard speculator has a case to gamble and if they need to gamble then I think SBI is only one stock where they can put their odds. If Govt fails then chances SBI going down by 20 to 30% impossible because of the fact the price is already corrected without FII selling in this counter. FII limit is still frozen at 20% and will remain so. But if Govt survives then SBI could become Rs 1600 in no time.

It is open secret that that LEFT has prevented Govt to raise the FII limit from 20 to 49%. When the RBI holding in SBI was transferred to GOI, SBI ceased as a subsidiary of the CENTRAL Bank and became a normal PSU bank like all other PSU bank. However the SBI has not been repealed so far which is governed by RBI Act. The Hon’ble FM had gone on record no of times that he wants to push through the baking reforms.

Now the ball is set for rolling. No left there to stop them. The first stock which should favour because to Govt survival is SBI and FII will start buying the blue chip stock at least till Rs 1600 where they had subscribed to the rights issue along with GOI and MF’s. From Rs 1250 to Rs 1600 is close to 30% return is a decent return in any form of speculation.

If Govt falls nothing bad will happen with this stock because even then FII will not sell. The new Govt post elections will take up the same stand and reforms will proceed. Therefore SBI will remain star performer.

One thing one should not forget is that UPA is betting on Govt whereas BJP and LEFT are betting on nothing. If UPA succeed it could be fortune turner for next 6 months which I can not elaborate here. Even before Bush goes he will bless India for the kind at of MADAM. This will be big mileage for UPA politically as well as economically.

Inflation stabilised and could start falling, political uncertainty will be at rest in next 3 days, oil collapsing ( satta broken for sure ), metal too falling. These factors for short term may not appeal to short sellers as their minds are corrupted and could remain so but in medium to long term will matter for sure. Watch CRAZY 4.

Think like a man of action and act like a man of thought.

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