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Wednesday, December 26, 2007

21 K insight

Remark My words “we celebrate New Year 2008 by Sensex @ 21000"

Yes once again we have proved that our call on RIL never goes wrong come what it may…? In fact, our CEO has opined that RIL is heading for Rs 10000 in next 3 years which you may see in the Business World edition of 23rd Nov 2007. In fact, he is the only person who has been fancying RIL stock even since the fighting of AMBANI bandhu and has been advocating RIL buy which has already become Rs 4000 from Rs 500 in less than 3 years. We all love RIL stock and believe that it will cross Rs 10 K standalone.

Almost take entire Indian broking community which had written off market in this vallan at least when it came down to 5700 except we at i Develop. We had a firm belief that market would cross 20000 very smoothly and in next 3 trading sessions it will cross 21000 on the New Year eve for sure and RIL will be the ladder for the same. At least 49 H F’s are sitting in Mumbai alone with 16 bn USD and scouting for opportunities. If this cash is failing to enter good stocks what will happen to fresh allocation….? Don’t you think that Trust selling shares move is the pre curser of excess liquidity….? In my opinion yes, Govt wants the idle money to be rolled into economy and capital expansion should happen and for that this provision.

REL placement is coming at Rs 2500 very shortly and stock is heading for Rs 3800 the valuations which we had worked out and flashed in this section when REL was at Rs 1300. Just watch the stock movement.

RPL the deadline of 28th is now delayed but for sure commercial production is starting on 16th March 2008. Depreciation is the key issue for which plant need to start before 31 st March and if that is true then RPL placement will happen in FEB at Rs 330. We are per se bullish on this stock would carry positions till 20th FEB 2008. This date has some significance but we will not reveal in this forum.

However, it seems the worst in RPL is over and it is now heading for Rs 330 in next 30 to 40 days and for that at least 60 rupees rise must come in JAN alone. All speculators must take a calculated risk of Rs 10 to 15 and go long in RPL which will be a slow mover till Rs 245 thereafter Rs 265 in no time and post that a rise of 20% in one single trading session is not ruled out.

Those who have downgraded RPL saying RIL is a better one on merger scene will come and issue buy report in RPL at Rs 500. Please cut and paste these 2 lines because it had happened in SBI and RIL also and therefore this will happen even this time. You have made me trustworthy so that I can serve you longer and longer with precise vision ahead of time.

The only way to make a man trustworthy
is to trust him.

Buy - Triton Copr ( Bse Code : 523387)

Triton Copr which has just announced stock split of shares into Re 1 is slated for big action. Sources close to management are extremely bullish on the co. Promoters have 91% stake in the co and is likely to dilute 16% in favour of U K based fund. Post dilution 2 major acquisitions are lined up. We suggest compounded buying ahead of FII interest in this stock.

Buy Bihar Tubes (BSE Code : 590059)

Couple of days ago i Develop had given a call that there could be a block deal in Bihar Tubes. Today the volume in Bihar Tubes was over 1.6 mn which includes a block deal of over 1 mn shares at around Rs.185/- each. This once agian proves that Cni is always ahead of the market.

The block deal has happened at Rs.185/- which can be treated as the bottom price and hence the stock has to cross this mark in coming days........

Business : The company produces close to 150 varieties of specialised steel tubes such as pre-galvanised pipes, galvanised sheets, ERW pipes and other related products. Recently, it expanded its product mix to include niche products in order to improve its sales realisation. This has helped it to improve its operating profit margin. In the September ’07 quarter, pre-galvanised pipes contributed around 22% to the company’s revenues.

The revenue share of galvanised pipes and the hollow segment was higher at 26% and 38%, respectively.Bihar Tubes has announced a Rs 170-crore expansion and diversification plan. The company proposes to set up a greenfield unit in Maharashtra for production of precision tubes, API pipes and related products catering to the automotive sector, which will be a step towards forward integration. The project is being implemented through a joint venture (JV) with Kusakabe Engineering Company of Japan.

Financials : The company’s net sales surged by 20.8% to Rs 62.7 crore during the second quarter of ’07, compared to the corresponding quarter last year. The growth was driven by its focus on sale of pre-galvanised pipes and fencing products. The sale from this segment grew by 22% on a year-on-year basis. As the segment has a higher sales realisation, its net profit during the quarter jumped by five times to Rs 4 crore.

Valuations: Bihar Tubes is expected to continue its momentum, driven by topline and bottomline growth in forthcoming quarters. Besides capex, growth will be aided by its focus on high-margin pre-galvanised pipes segment and pipes/tubes with higher specifications. The stock is currently trading at around eight times its trailing four quarters earnings. The company is expected to close fiscal year ’07-08 with a net profit of Rs 14-15 crore on a conservative basis. This leaves good scope for appreciation for investors who have a six-to-eight-month horizon.

Lift Kara De.......
Amidst market confusion whether 5800 will cross or not..? Whether 6000 is even to be seen again…? Whether distribution is happening..? Myself and our team were pretty confident this time with regard to market movement. We were damn sure that Nifty will touch 5987 before Thursday which in fact happened today itself. That is the reason our team repeated its slogan that we are in no hurry to book profits this time.

Now the stocks which will remain at center stage for next 10 days are RIL, RPL, RNRL, REL and reasons will come before you in course of time. It is too much discounted by members about our advance information system and instead of taking it for the good lots of members are on fault finding exercise. Therefore it was deiced to curtail such services upfront.

To the best of my knowledge the exact points of Nifty without even referring to technical are known to only our S C team in India. They have done a remarkable job so far. Market is still in two minds and every time recovery comes they are talking about correction again.

Now only 2 days are left and these 2 days will be used for full rollover as well as HAVALA. And as you are aware FII attendance is very poor which will be used by market makers for pulling in the fresh settlement. By next week fresh allocation will happen and FII too will return which will be seen through a frenzied buying because the depth will not be available due to fresh vallan.

Next bout of correction could be possible only on 22nd or 23 rd JAN because the next vallan is of 35 days and last day falls on 31st JAN which needs to be taken into account. This is a sufficient hint for the short sellers.

Apart from the same, BJP win means no early elections at the center. Next state to be watched could be RAJSTHAN even where BJP is likely to return to power. In short ruling party has no option than to go all out for full term and do a lot good for the economy as well as market. This also suggests the sense of urgency that market is heading for 22000 before Budget.

'IT was the night before Christmas, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,In hopes that St. Nicholas soon would be there;The children were nestled all snug in their beds,While visions of sugarplums danced in their heads."

Trusts to be allowed to invest in the markets.
The government today decided to amend the archaic laws to allow all trusts to invest in securities, including shares and bonds of listed companies.The move could see thousands of crores of rupees flowing to the booming capital market The Union Cabinet, which met today, approved a proposal to amend Section 20(f) of the Indian Trusts Act, 1882, in the next session of Parliament to make it more contemporary.This will be the first amendment to the Act since independence.Section 20(f) prescribes investment options and refers to places like Britain, Rangoon and Karachi.Since independence, only an administrative circular has been issued not to invest in any securities issued on behalf of a municipal body, port trust of city improvement trust in Rangoon Town, or by or on behalf of the trustees of the port of Karachi.The amendment in the investment norms under Section 20(f) will enable the government to notify a class of securities as eligible for investment by trusts, said an official statement after the Union Cabinet meeting here.At present, registered trusts can invest their funds either in securities notified by the government or authorised by the trust’s charter or under a High Court ruling.After the amendment to the Act, the government will allow all trusts set up under the Act, which include private and public trusts like religious trusts and educational trusts, to invest in shares, scrips, stocks, bonds, debentures, debenture stock or other marketable securities, sources said.Analysts said the measure could release thousands of crores of surplus funds, currently invested in risk-free government bonds and bank deposits, into the capital market.While newer trusts have provided maximum flexibility in their terms of investment options through their charters, older ones like cash-rich religious trusts, have been deprived of this opportunity.There are thousands of trusts in the country, out of which about 400 are very big and have huge resources. Trusts find it difficult to utilise the huge funds received for welfare.The infrastructure sector is expected to become a major beneficiary as the government may promote investment by such trusts in equity and bonds of infrastructure projects or firms.

China stock markets raise $113 bn in 2007
China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have raised 830.6 billion yuan (113.3 billion dollars) this year largely on an investment mania over initial public offerings, state media said Wednesday. The total amount, which was only for the year up to December 21, was nearly a four-fold increase over the money raised on the country's stock markets last year, Xinhua news agency said.According to estimates, the total amount raised for the entire year is expected to exceed 841 billion yuan, it said. This is equivalent to what was raised by the two bourses in their first 14 years of existence from 1990, it added. More than half the funds raised this year were through 120 IPOs, as investors jumped at new flotations with a vengance, disregarding warnings that an ongoing share bubble is destined to burst eventually. Chinese IPOs this year raised about 61 billion dollars, far outperforming the US capital market which earned 10 billion dollars in new flotations, Xinhua said. China's stock markets are in the midst of an ongoing boom with the Shanghai bourse up 95.60 percent for the year as of Wednesday, while last year the benchmark index rose 130.32 percent. According to Xinhua, more large IPOs are expected next year from numerous Chinese state-owned enterprises.

Meanwhile 13 large state companies already listed on the Hong Kong bourse, such as China Telecom and Dongfeng Motor Group, are being encouraged to seek mainland listings in the future, it said.

Notable IPOs in 2007 include PetroChina which became the world's biggest flotation when it raised nearly nine billion dollars in the sale of four billion shares in early November. Enthusiasm for China's largest oil refiner however faded quickly with the stock trading at around 30 yuan per share in recent weeks after touching highs of around 48 yuan immediately after the IPO. Other top IPOs include China Shenhua, one of the nation's largest coal producers, which raised a record 66.58 billion yuan on the Shanghai bourse in late September and China Construction Bank, one of China's four top commercial lenders, which raised more than 58 billion yuan.

6 SBI associates considering merger
The consolidation process in the Indian banking industry is set to get a new momentum in January next year, with the boards of six associate banks of the State Bank of India slated to meet on January 25, 2008 to consider in-principle nod for their merger with State Bank of India, India’s largest commercial bank.

SBI has seven associate banks including State Bank of Saurashtra, whose merger with the parent bank has already been approved by both the boards and awaiting Government and RBI approval.

The other six are State Bank of Travancore, State Bank of Mysore, State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur, State Bank of Hyderabad, State Bank of Indore, and State Bank of Patiala.

SBI’s controlling interests in the associate banks range from 75 per cent to 100 per cent.

As and when the consolidation move goes through, SBI is expected to transform itself to a banking giant. It is already one of the largest banks in Asia.

The consolidation move stems from the need to shore up size, which has been a limiting factor for Indian banks as only 22 of them figure in the top 1,000 in the world. Mergers have been advocated as a strategy for Indian banks to make them bigger and face global competition.

In the domestic market too, late private sector entrants such as ICICI Bank have grown much beyond many public sector banks on the back of aggressive marketing of products besides some merger initiatives. Public sector banks too have been looking for consolidation opportunities, but none have materialised so far.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

i Develop Portfolio Management Services - Performance Report as on Oct 2007

100% accuracy in Oct'07

Rs 9.7 lakh net profit booked in just up to October'07

Date

Scrip

type

Entry

Exit Price

Exit Date

Profit

% gain

Lot Size

Profit per lot

26. Oct.2007

Rel capital

Long

1,820.00

1,830.00

26. Oct.2007

10

0.55%

550

5500

25. Oct. 2007

IFCI

Long

87

95

26. Oct. 2007

8

9.20%

7875

63000

25. Oct. 2007

Petronet LNG

Long

82

84

26. Oct. 2007

2

2.44%

4400

8800

24. Oct. 2007

Nifty

Long

5,538.00

5,638.00

26. Oct. 2007

100

1.81%

50

5000

23. Oct. 2007

NTPC

Long

215

227

26. Oct. 2007

12

5.58%

1625

19500

23. Oct. 2007

Arvind Mills

Long

72

76

26. Oct. 2007

4

5.56%

4300

17200

22. Oct. 2007

Escorts

Long

109

114

26. Oct. 2007

5

4.59%

2400

12000

22. Oct. 2007

Bongaigaon

Long

60

63

26. Oct. 2007

3

5.00%

4500

13500

22. Oct. 2007

IDBI

Long

133

149

26. Oct. 2007

16

12.03%

2400

38400

15. Oct. 2007

IFCI

Long

88

95

26. Oct. 2007

7

7.95%

7875

55125

9. Oct. 2007

IOB

Long

141.5

138

26. Oct. 2007

-3.5

-2.47%

2950

-10325

25. Oct. 2007

Rel capital

Long

1,800.00

1,865.00

25. Oct. 2007

65

3.61%

550

35750

24. Oct. 2007

RPL

Long

184

189

24. Oct. 2007

5

2.72%

3350

16750

22. Oct. 2007

RIL

Long

2,450.00

2,535.00

23. Oct. 2007

85

3.47%

150

12750

22. Oct. 2007

Bombay Dyeing

Long

626

655

23. Oct. 2007

29

4.63%

300

8700

19. Oct. 2007

Hindalco

Long

181

188

23. Oct. 2007

7

3.87%

1595

11165

18. Oct. 2007

Nifty

Long

5,300.00

5,390.00

23. Oct. 2007

90

1.70%

50

4500

18. Oct. 2007

Sterlite Optical

Long

260

277

23. Oct. 2007

17

6.54%

1050

17850

22. Oct. 2007

REL

Long

1,310.00

1,410.00

22. Oct. 2007

100

7.63%

550

55000

19. Oct. 2007

SBI

Long

1,620.00

1,700.00

22. Oct. 2007

80

4.94%

250

20000

19. Oct. 2007

Orchid Chemical

Long

232

232

22. Oct. 2007

0

0.00%

1050

0

19. Oct. 2007

MTNL

Long

166

180

22. Oct. 2007

14

8.43%

1600

22400

18. Oct. 2007

MTNL

Long

172

182

18. Oct. 2007

10

5.81%

1600

16000

17. Oct. 2007

Bongaigaon

Long

60

66

18. Oct. 2007

6

10.00%

4500

27000

17. Oct. 2007

Hindalco

Long

198

206

18. Oct. 2007

8

4.04%

1595

12760

17. Oct. 2007

Nifty

Long

5,250.00

5,430.00

17. Oct. 2007

180

3.43%

50

9000

17. Oct. 2007

RIL

Long

2,350.00

2,600.00

17. Oct. 2007

250

10.64%

150

37500

17. Oct. 2007

Infosys

Long

1,760.00

1,900.00

17. Oct. 2007

140

7.95%

100

14000

17. Oct. 2007

NTPC

Long

214

222

17. Oct. 2007

8

3.74%

1625

13000

17. Oct. 2007

DLF

Long

818

860

17. Oct. 2007

42

5.13%

400

16800

17. Oct. 2007

SBI

Long

1,815.00

1,875.00

17. Oct. 2007

60

3.31%

250

15000

12. Oct. 2007

Nifty

Short

5,495.00

5,230.00

17. Oct. 2007

265

4.82%

50

13250

16. Oct. 2007

Bombay Dyeing

Long

715

716

16. Oct. 2007

1

0.14%

300

300

16. Oct. 2007

Escorts

Long

125

124

16. Oct. 2007

-1

-0.80%

2400

-2400

15. Oct. 2007

Sterlite Optical

Long

249

282

16. Oct. 2007

33

13.25%

1050

34650

12. Oct. 2007

NTPC

Long

225

230

16. Oct. 2007

5

2.22%

1625

8125

11. Oct. 2007

SBI

Long

1,900.00

1,935.00

12. Oct. 2007

35

1.84%

250

8750

11. Oct. 2007

MTNL

Long

155

163

12. Oct. 2007

8

5.16%

1600

12800

11. Oct. 2007

IDBI

Long

142.5

154

12. Oct. 2007

11.5

8.07%

2400

27600

11. Oct. 2007

IFCI

Long

84

88

12. Oct. 2007

4

4.76%

7875

31500

11. Oct. 2007

Bongaigaon

Long

65

69

12. Oct. 2007

4

6.15%

4500

18000

9. Oct. 2007

SBI

Long

1,855.00

1,920.00

10. Oct. 2007

65

3.50%

250

16250

8. Oct. 2007

Bombay Dyeing

Long

655

688

10. Oct. 2007

33

5.04%

300

9900

9. Oct. 2007

RPL

Long

155

161

9. Oct. 2007

6

3.87%

3350

20100

8. Oct. 2007

IFCI

Long

81.5

87

9. Oct. 2007

5.5

6.75%

7875

43313

8. Oct. 2007

R Com

Long

631

686

9. Oct. 2007

55

8.72%

700

38500

1. Oct. 2007

ITC

Short

187

176

8. Oct. 2007

11

5.88%

2250

24750

3. Oct. 2007

Bombay Dyeing

Long

644

683

4. Oct. 2007

39

6.06%

300

11700

28. Sep.2007

IFCI

Short

100

93

4. Oct. 2007

7

7.00%

7875

55125

28. Sep. 2007

R Com

Short

592

615

1. Oct. 2007

-23

-3.89%

700

-16100

26. Sep. 2007

Gail

Long

377

405

1. Oct. 2007

28

7.43%

750

21000

Total Profit

970738

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