Dard Vs Darr.....

I am an optimist…DARD hai DARR nahie…

We are not bearish and in fact we were waiting for this day to raise the toast to cash more trading opportunities. We do not care what market talks and what others believe about the market because we know what we need to do in the given circumstances. We are not here to manage the funds but for sure we are here to manage your interest.

Had we been managing your funds we could have catched the bottom Nifty and entry of numerous stocks ….? Any way, this is not our focus at the moment as we are lined up for major activities never done before in India and hence we are not keen to enter broking business though we are flush with such proposals.

Our channel partner SIFY’s SMS server was out of order and hence members must have faced difficulties more so when the market was volatile. In fact, we had been advocating for long that one should not depend on SMS alone and always have combo packs. In future, please take not of it in order to avoid inconveniences.

Coming to market, the pain is only for rollover because FRIDAY and TUESDAY are holiday and we are left with just 5 more trading sessions to rollover close to Rs 1,08,000 crs OI. This was known to our team though the timing was circumspect as usual because if we can know the timing we would occupy the space of the dream gambling den. The owner of the DEN deserves for this volatility.

Why is this volatility created in the market….? Market has enlarged beyond anybody’s imagination and even upcountry traders are dragged in trading in a big way. Broking community for the fun of creating their reach are adding more and more trading members and for that they are offering any kind of services but only till the times they gets going. The moment market start falling their risk management starts acting and in some cases they blindly square off all the positions without even taking the client’s consent because they hold POA duly signed at the time of margin trading.

Above that 20 K and global factors are always hogging in the minds of investors and they can’t see anything beyond the screen in front of them. It had happened at 5K 8K 12 K 13 K 15 K 18K and now at 20 K. If your vision is restricted to 22 K then for sure you can’t tolerate this kind of market but if you are destined for 45 K then every market will give you some multi baggers which will be wealth creators.

Any way whether market will give an opportunity to buy tomorrow itself is a big question mark but for sure post 27th Dec nobody will talk about this pain come what it may…? Last month we had seen Bajaj Hindustan correcting from Rs 245 to Rs 176 and then in this vallan went on to Rs 310. Therefore traders must understand that this is market and things will happen only in this way.

Yes there are lot of brokers generating sell calls too for which we have no answer and traders are free to follow them if they like their calls. JET and DLF will be the bullet calls for this vallan as well as next vallan whereas we are extremely positive on IFCI and IDBI for that matters and every dip is a buying opportunity. Media has tossed up a price of Rs 90 to 100 first then Rs 111 but yet there is no authentic statement from the management. We know only one thing Govt has taken equity at Rs 107 through bond conversion route that too after slogging for 4 long years and if they sell at Rs 111 then it could have been wiser to take refund of BONDS than get the same converted into equity. GOVT can’t be wrong and hence I would bet on IFCI. In fact, I have picked up IFCI personally for delivery for next 3 years as in my opinion it will move the way SAIL stock has moved. Those FII who have occupied 26% of IFCI shares from open market have not sold a single share till date. This clearly suggests the value of IFCI is far in excess of Rs 270 per share. ISPAT had one residential property at PEDDAR road mumbai and they have used their development route for realty gains and to my surprise they are booking residential houses at Rs 80000 per sq ft. IFCI is owning 3 premises in Delhi which will go for re development and the unrealized gains could be far in excess of Rs 20000 crs going by cmr in Delhi and hence IFCI stock will not go so cheap come what it may and even after the sell of 26% stake the stock will become a re rating story.

Coming back to cash segment, we have spotted Stelco a C R co with lot of great potential and grossly undervalued stock where we have taken stake in the co. As per our traditions we have initiated a simultaneous buy call on the stock. With top line of Rs 200 crs the cmc of Rs 50 crs is just below anybody’s imagination. We know certain FII are looking to take stake in this co but their problem is low market cap which means very soon it could cross Rs 100 crs market cap where FII could enter in this stock. We are also covering this stock in our INST research. However whether to invest overboard or not is your call since we have vested interest in the stock.

Keep close watch on the volumes which will rise every day and also keep watch on delivery marked which will give an indication of accumulation.

"It is the formidable character of the species to routinely seek the improbable, the difficult, even the impossible, as a source of pleasure and self-justification. Who would try to write poems, or novels, or paint pictures unless he is an optimist?"