i Develop Stocks Advisory

Getting closer....

Yes the panic is not completely over as still more than 900 to 1000 bolts are jammed and investors have to get the funds back. The dust should settle by Thursday the last day of settlement and post which market will start rising in the old fashion once again.

In May 2006, nobody believed that Sensex will ever touch 16K but for sure we were there to console with Lion’s heart and yet another innings we are ready to play and prove that market will touch 38K. In fact, we have strong belief that market will ion new zone by 28^th FEB only.

Gain gone, pain will go and chains will be shut in few months. Only those who are sitting on cash are able to invest in this market. The old story will repeat once again. Investors can’t sell stocks in loss neither can buy more in falling markets. As and when the market recovers, investors will start getting head room to exit from existing holdings and will enter new stocks when Sensex goes into new orbit.

For me this is not new because more than actual pain it is human psychology which is working. When Friday market went up traders took positions home for cashing gains whereas today when it is down they start talking about 4400 Nifty once again.

However, a close observation suggest that market ( in normal conditions) would work on ELLIOTT wave pattern which means new bottoms will be formed. If 4400 is broken then there is no guarantee of even 3600 which means 4400 is now ruled out. After making 4900 a consolidation point, 5000 was another trigger. Then it went all the way to 5400 and corrected back to 5100 or around. Who has gained except the driver….? It means even after the driver lost heavily it has kept their head high to keep Nifty trades on.

I think Nifty will kiss 5880 very shortly either before 31^st if RBI cuts CRR by 50 basis point or alternatively in FEB where next correction will start. 5500 is the strongest bottom. Logically therefore 5500 crossing will take Nifty straight away to 5880 and then 6600 in not a dream because at 5900 there will not be any pain at all.

Now that those who had lost in May 2006 massacre could not come to market for at least 12 months which will be the case again in Feb 08. In order to see faster recovery one must enter quality stocks in B gr which could give them 100% return which can provide them a new platform. I know for sure my advise will go on deaf ears once again. I had been advising all of you to have only 10% exposure in futures because my philosophy suggested that future trades are only for passion and not earning.

Just imagine….I have been a strong reader of futures as well as stocks which could have lured me to trader in futures but my senses always prevented because I had lost money in 2000 crash to understand this market. Every trader has to pay the price then only he can become mature investor. The real problem on had was disproportionate long positions in futures. I know one small shop owner from Indore lost 4 crs Rs which was never before heard of. I also agree with Surjeet Bhalla who has pointed the defect of the system as a whole.

The O I in futures as of today is just 20 bn USD whereas the margin locked with exchanges could be at least 10 bn USD and therefore no broker is going go bankrupt on record though time will expose many frauds of misuse of money and margins by broking community as a whole which were held at ransom for squaring off the positions for want of margins and they had really no option and time to see which customers account they are knocking off.

Ideally, in this case NSE ought to have given some time to brokers to deposit margin cheque and/or square off positions on their own. Whenever exchange does this job you will remember DEONAR’s slaughter house.

From all these investors must take at one lesson…let this be a game of big players because end of day all the policies are pro BIG investors and not small ones and hence small investors must either enter stocks of their own research in B gr or invest their money in MF.

Me and my team will not leave any stone unturned to see your smiles back but please give time to do that and try to follow the advise more sincerely than before.

The right moment for starting on your next job is not tomorrow or next week; it is instanter, or in the American idiom, 'right now.

Chakr De...la.. KABIR KHAN
ANIL KUMBLE and his army of 4 old cammandos’ showed that age is no barrier for cricket. Likewise there needs to be few commandos’ come in the public domain to bail out Indian investors who have stuck in Tsunami created by brokers and exchanges. If ANIL KUMBLE is the self made KABIR KHAN we need somebody to become a market’s KABIR KHAN to make CHAKRA DE instead of cheque de. The men in blue are always heavy on the men in Eastman colors and we need to prove the same in the capital market too.

Majority of the brokers withheld the payments of retail investors ever after selling their portfolio for no fault of these investors. Well, these are the reasons Indian brokers are always called and known as brokers. It is well said that broker can’t lose money whether they are stocks brokers or commodity or for that matter any kind of flesh.

The brokers have lost heavily only on their proprietary accounts. History is already there where in 2001 few brokers manipulated badla money and gone bankrupt. This time too brokers used clients margin money and few brokers if goes bankrupt I will not be surprised.

In fact, this is the reason we have held back our opinion of V shape recovery. Yesterday market had seen 1000 points correction because one of FUND wanted to sell 1.8 mn shares of RIL which he tried place till 2 pm failing which he pressed the panic button. Who knows this will happen today, Monday or even Tuesday. The bottom line is clear, the brokers who are still holding some positions in JAN on behalf of very very strong clients too warned them to square off the same by 31^st JAN and shown no interest to rollover.

This may lead to further aggravation till 31^st JAN except for the fact that FM can come to the rescue of the market by asking RBI to cut CRR by 50 basis point on 30^th JAN which can provide a handsome respite.

At the same time I would now bet on SENSEX 38000 in 2009 and the reason is very simple. We are 5000 Sensex now and the filters used at 8900 were 20 cents diamond screening whereas this time it is 1 cent screening. Therefore the rise will be much faster at larger base of 17500. From 9000 to 21000 was a rise of 150% whereas from 17500 to 38000 it will be only 117% and with no pressure from any quarters. I had already expressed that DOW is forming bottom and 16K can come in 3 months which now been confirmed by M S by setting 6 months target of 18K.

I have only one message for those who have lost their last pant due to F & O ….whatever you are left with try to invest in quality stocks of I DEVELOP recommendation because there are no FII’s to create more damage to these stocks. Once the sanity returns these stocks will rise at least 100% in next 3 months to give some solace.

As regards market, the OI is now at 80 K and FEB OI is still at 11K which means even if the next vallan starts with 40K OI to come to back 100 K levels a rally of 5000 points is must which will be reflected till FEB 2^nd week and come what it may even the worst budget can’t do any more damage to market.

March month eventually know as p and l adjustment month which generally sees huge crash to clean up the books of big wigs which is not required now as the books are cleaned up beyond imagination and I think traders having paid huge STT are now scouting for profits in the market as per sources in this line.

This all suggest that SENSEX will cross 21K well before Budget and there are chances that market may climb to 25K in March if Budget is extra ordinary the chances of which can’t be ruled out due to enormous loss to the exchequer also.

FAITH IS A GIFT FROM GOD THAT HE MAKES AVAIALABLE TO ANYONE WHO WANTS IT. ALL YOU HAVE TO DO TO GET IT IS ASK HIM…….