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Monday, February 25, 2008

Learning process...

Rs 17000 crs is the rolled over position though just 4 days are left for rollover. Tomorrow is the RAIL Budget which is a representative of the MAIN Budget and if the freight charges are slashed substantially with more means of raising funds such as sale of railway land then probably market may go over the roof.

Will short sellers keep their positions intact ahead of Rail Budget is really to be seen…? It is also interesting to see whether bears keep their short open at 5100 levels ahead of Main Budget on Friday…?

Though they have 5 trading sessions to cut their short it seems they will get only 3 sessions for doing the same and in 3 sessions if market does not fall below 5100 levels time and again the short covering may see Nifty to 5300 levels. The odds are really not in favour of bears at the moment as market is in oversold position, two that few funds are really showing buying interest at 5100 levels and three those 2 new funds namely JERRYPOND and WADRFERRY. I can’t reveal how much allocations have been made by these 2 funds. No sane operator whether Bull or Bear will keep his positions open ahead of events like Budget. Bulls have nothing to lose because by Thursday their long will get died down and they will have to take fresh positions on 29th but the same may not go well because of the lack of volumes.

Yet the chances of lower levels are also not ruled out as the confidence crisis has continued which is making the best in the biz also to hold their investment decisions. Generally the human psychology is that “Do not buy when you are getting it and stand in queue when not getting it”.

Therefore all depends on how bears are going to react to Rail Budget and economic survey.

R Power announced 60% bonus reducing the cost of share to Rs 269 and ex bonus it will open at 300 plus which will give sizable recovery to those who have been allotted shares. More bold announcements such as takeovers will come in this co and in next 18 months this stock will become Rs 1400 plus on major projects going on stream. Investors could do well holding this share for longer period of time.

An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. It's knowing where to go to find out what you need to know; and it's knowing how to use the information you get.

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