i Develop Stocks Advisory

Worst is over... Railway Budget was generally in line and market movement too was in line. Market closed 100 points plus though at one point in time it was looking like closing 200 points plus. Rollover till yesterday was Rs 26000 crs out of Rs 81000 crs which means lot of positions are yet to be rolled over. ADAG after controlling R Power to a respectable level through GANIMI KAWA method now played their cards in REL by announcing buyback. May be the next counter for damage control operations is RNRL as Reliance Capital does not require any operation and it will stand on its own. Most of the strong promoters have used this opportunity of crash for increasing their stake either through preferential rout or creeping acquisitions rout and I would advise investors too to respect such promoters who have shown guts and characters to raise their stakes. Either cash strapped promoters or promoters having very low confident on the self have failed to capitalize this opportunity. Now with just 2 trading sessions left I can just vouch for the fact that WORST is over for the market. Even if everything turns out to be negative market cant fall below 4910 which is close 350 points and hence investors can for sure take it for granted that 14000 is now history. For those who have short positions in the market the warning bell is already out. More and more new hedge funds stepping out the matter is getting worse for short sellers. Only 2 days left for them to cut their short. I have reason to worry about the Bulls because they had done patience game this time and retail completely out of fray market is now heading for 5500 plus in next 10 days. I am sure and very confident now that market will test 7000 levels that too in 2008 itself. This month was very critical for market and if it had to test lower levels second time this could have happened in FEB alone. Now March is starting and broking houses are not going to open the margin limits till 31st March 2008 because if they open now again in 2 weeks they will have to ask their clients to close the accounts. They are busy solving their own tax problems by adjusting the huge losses they have met in the recent crash. If they show these losses in the Balance Sheet openly then their valuations will get affected like the sub prime story. This is a big plus for market drivers to bridge the gap in cash stocks in March to a great levels and then bring back retail in April 2008 the things will be stream lined as usual. If this does not happen then they will have to close 50 of the recently opened franchises which seem impossible. Now as far as the rational behind B gr recovery in March is concerned I would like to state that operators, Funds, market makers, MF and major Corporate Houses all have huge exposure and in B gr shares and their losses in valuation is only on paper because they have not sold a single share. The F & O or A gr is only their face saving where they might incur actual losses but the fact remains that their real wealth generation happens only through B gr shares. Therefore bringing back Nifty to 7000 is the only answer to their wealth generation. Because by the time this happens all cash stocks will literally double. Which means a recovery of 30% in Sensex could mean 100% rise in paper wealth. Alternatively exit in so called paper wealth is just impossible without Nifty rising and sustaining new levels. I had promised you to enlighten on market course at appropriate time and I think though Nifty has not crossed my desired level of 5500 I had discharged my duty because now I think even if conspiracy has to work market can’t dip to certain levels. This is more so in the light of the fact that FII had sold naked Nifty this time to cover their cash stocks and they will to have cut their Nifty short in next 2 days. Therefore for even global markets fail to respond the possibility of huge fall is now ruled out. I must thank my team of S C to maintain their constant stand of hold positions irrespective of huge volatility in FEB. Otherwise for them it was so simple like all others to close the calls on paper. We have no approach of who cares….? All the stocks appearing in the S C sections are going to see the light of the day. Those who have lost and are out I can’t help it and those who are still holding positions may be benefited. It is worth taking risk ahead of Budget for new comers as there is no reward without risk in equity markets. Before I could spell out the course of my reading I had followed one principle… “whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent”