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Friday, February 1, 2008

FED ...immaterial

FED a ghost - the market is talking all about…? US market will definitely react negatively even if FED cuts it by 50 basis point because when markets are bad any good news could also spark sell offs.

India has nothing to do with FED which I am repeating again and again. Indian market is going through identity crisis as lot of selling is happening at every rise. This will happen till tomorrow. Most of the brokers have refused to carry forward positions to FEB. I think this was intended.

The rationale is simple. If you rollover then what the market maker will do….? Rs 30000 crs O I has already been rolled over which is a big sigh of relief for the market. In my opinion the total rollover will halt around Rs 50000 crs which is a good sign and hinting towards respectability. In another words the payment crisis is close to an end as stuck bulls have signed off huge lots yesterday.

On 1st QIP will get back their funds whereas FED issue will also be at rest. Q3 results which were up by 26% on an average are more than robust to reiterate that market are now grossly undervalued. With entry into Q4, there is no point in talking about 08 earnings and PE. We are at 14 PE for 09 and hence we have potential to see the market rising from 18 K to 38 K because we believe that the growth will sustain at 30% and PE will stabilise at 20 to 22 levels which makes us believe 38K possible.

I was bullish all along in GOLD which will be known by all old readers and not new ones. I had spotted the onset of GOLD rally at 265 USD with target of 1600 USD. It has come long way at 930 USD. I suppose it is time to sell GOLD in commodity market or sell even delivery at 12300 with a strict stop loss of 12950. Gold may correct by at least 20% in coming months to settle at 10500 or around before the next rally to 1600 USD starts.

Nifty is correcting below 5200 but I am not disturbed. This volatility is must for building positions in FEB. JAN selling will happen only when weakness is shown. In any case 4910 is an ultimatum. Market will not fell below this level come what it may…?

You know which stocks you can pick to make your life in B gr whereas if you leverage more in A gr the problem will aggravate though value remains intact. What made Century Textiles to crash to as low as Rs 163 in June 2006 from Rs 865 and again climb back to Rs 1250……………? Alternatively what has changed in Reliance Capital which was corrected from Rs 850 to 270 and rose to Rs 3000….?

Fundamentals hardly matters when the stock is in A gr in bear attack whereas you tend to give excessive valuation everything gets going….

Come again I will show you the valuation of these very stocks in next 3 months. Who will believe then that these were the prices of JAN…..

The three great essentials to achieve anything worth while are, first, hard work; second, stick-to-itiveness; third, common sense. Please keep this in mind.

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