i Develop Stocks Advisory

Extreme Pessimism IIP Nos which had created panic for sure by sending unsolicited message to the market that slowdown is for sure. From 16% to 2% a vertical fall in the capital goods segment means loss of faith in INDIA growth story. Though it is surprising no analyst could gauge the same. Now they are talking about some aberration in the same. The knee jerk reaction could be sell sell and only sell. At the same time the Hon’ble Finance Minister who is supposed to be in control of ECONOMIC data still maintains “India will give best growth in the decade”. He also maintains the growth projections estimated for the current year. CMI estimating 8.7% GDP growth which just tad below the FM’s estimate of 8.8% growth yet respectable firm like Morgan in an open statement announced 7% GDP growth. Well, liberty is provided to everybody but what happens if India sustains growth of 8.8% ….? Will these fellow take the responsibly….? I think it is high time to reform even this sector. The responsibility of the analysts commenting on direction of the stock, market and sensitive nos must be fixed. Any way that is a different issue altogether. When the man who can see tomorrow says the growth will sustain that too at 8.8% I would go by him instead of a white collared analyst calling his shots. The correction which is close to 30% has factored in more than required derailment in growth. Even when Sensex was at 20000, the growth rate was never expected to grow beyond 9% and therefore the fractional drop denting 30% Sensex is uncalled for. I think market has been over reacting to all bad news. The current fluid situation of the market is a mix of reaction to weak international markets, extreme pessimism; lack of liquidity entering market and on the top of it the timing. Retail is washed out and only way they can come back in the market is through M F rout where they should be happy with 30% return. HNI were too shaken and now not ready to bite the bullet. Major money had come from Diamond markets and ancillary markets which too vanished. At this stage I think even if market recovers to 20000 plus in next 3 months or so nobody is going to come back to DALAL Street. Third time market is close to its lowest levels of last 6 months i e 15332 of JAN 2008. Market is definitely in oversold zone and every bad news is making short sellers go in free short selling in Nifty. Today SING Nifty trade happened at 4755 which normally a trend decided for day opening but bears hammered Nifty till 4660. Another 60 points they may drag it to 4600 levels where they would like to see the profits of short sells. My interaction with 15 top class fund managers from overseas clearly says that they are for India investment in a big way because they know for sure India is the only place where they can maximize their returns. They are just waiting to time the market. I am personally not inclined to buy the arguments of end of the INDIA growth story. Neither I am ready to believe that market is over. It is like a CITY BUS where you travel for 3 long hours and find co passenger (beautiful girl) sitting next to you. You feel her touch and presence and all along within yourself think to talk to her. Alas, 2 hours goes and she alights from the bus and you can’t do anything. Suddenly you feel you missed it and on next another girl boards the BUS. You heart starts beating and say I have one more chance. Can I do it…? Similarly wherever this kind of correction happen some players exit from this market whether they are retail, H funds or even HNI. At least those who board in this Bus in between will have to alight. Only investors who consider this as an industry survives. I am here for last 23 years and seen all ups and downs of market. Basic fact has remained in tact fundamentals can’t change. We have come long way from 6% fiscal deficit to 2.5% and inflation close to 5% and size has become globally competitive. This will expand and more international players are set to enter. The expansion of products such nifty trading in Singapore will have plus and minus sides which needs to be considered. Domestic leverages have to be on par on all fronts. Investors need to understand sooner than later that money can be made only by specialised investments and not by derivative products. If M F are going to give you 30% return even in these circumstances then for sure you will get over 100% returns from focused investments. Bigger the size of your portfolio higher is the need of personalized advice. No matters you land up paying 1 or 2% cost as professional fees to the experts. This is not portfolio management but it is personal management of your wealth on scale to scale. You have not lost time and as of now also can rechristen your portfolio considering the fact every correction ahs killed some sectors forever and new sectors which are at low ebb can become fancy of the next Bull Run. Be prepared. I remember one joke of defence guys. The forces report its head Sir we are surrounded by enemies from all the sides and there is no scope of escape. The Commander without wasting even a second shows his positive attitude and says “ No problem guys, we have liberty to fire in any direction now. Attitude is more important than the atmosphere. Had you made exit at 6000 or 6200 yes, it could have been greatest escape but now at 4600 you can’t think to make exit from a market which is sitting on volcano of negative surmises. Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent.