i Develop Stocks Advisory

Promise vs performance For the first time the savvy insider of bear camp spoke to a market maker and expressed his reasons for the bear attack. According to him the economic nos has no meaning and it could be manipulated ones. It also claims that the Bull Run in India started with Bush becoming US president and could end with Bush’s exit as president and hence the upside is now not much barring a sparkling short covering till 20 K. For them the bear phase has started and market will behave in the same manner like post Hashad Mehta era. They also claim that the so called earnings growth in corporate will vanish like new economy stocks post K P era. Fund redemption starting which will suck the liquidity from the market further and the vicious cycle will take its toll on the system. There are some written e mails in circulation with the regard to conspiracy of the stock market crash at a time when market sentiment is at its lowest ebb. The names of the famous bears as well as some wire channels are prominently and boldly flashed in these e mails though I am really circumspect whether they have evidence of the same or not. In any case, since the matter has deeper gravity we feel it is not fair to discuss in this forum and we also believe that market regulator is capable to ascertain the facts if at all true. Whenever market corrects this kind of assessments are bound to come. The situation is not much different than the 17 May 2006 crash rather is worse as the timing of the crash is matching year end considerations which itself is known as squaring off month. In fact, the fears as well as compulsion have allowed all retail and as well as HNI investors whether they were over leveraged or otherwise to reduce the exposure substantially in JAB, FEB and now March. Coming back to fundamentals, the best judge of the growth or pace of the growth is none other than Govt. Govt has already predicted growth 8.8% average growth in next five years which means in some years it will exceed even 9% then only 8.8% average is possible. We have not even 2% infrastructure of any developed country in the world which is possible only if the FDI money will come in a big way. Major events are not even happened in India such as rupee free float hence somebody calling the day as the bear run started is nothing but an attempt to misguide petty investors who are generally falling fray to these gimmicks. We have seen all past bear phases and we have catched the bottoms and are successful track record of predicting market behaviour though these will be always accompanied by short term failures. We at least for I Develop members can ensure that market will test new highs before the announcement of elections which could be at the fag end of the calendar year. For the aforesaid reasons and with extreme fearsome conditions, market has become trim and slim like ADNAN SAMI and hence the U turn will bring back the cheers like it did on all previous occasions. Sectors will change. Power, financial, banking, telecom and broking will get battered further and may correct another 50% from the current levels whereas sectors like pharma, infra, metal, auto, auto components, forging, hotel, oil and gas, gas ancillary, transformers, mining, media print especially, internet, IPR will catch momentum which will take India to new heights like M S Dhoni changed the Indian cricket overnight. I am happy that bears are so much in action because they are impetus for the recovery of the market. No bears have made big money in last 5 years ever since Bull market started and even if they have made in short run they will lose in this market only. Therefore our members should at least not to go by what these so called bears openly advocate including in public domain. Any way, if you have fear and greed then only you are the self destined judge of your own. Reliance in A gr and Minda in B gr are our biggest bets as on today. Nobody on the earth can stop RIL from crossing Rs 5000 in next 18 months and Minda from Rs 1000. FII are today sellers which is a very good sign because FII always sell at dirtiest rates and buy at the top and if there selling is over then market will get bottomed automatically. No need of a specialised Doctor for that. You cannot live on other people's promises, but if you promise others enough, you can live on your own.