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Monday, March 24, 2008

Right focus...
Fed cut of 75 bsp has lifted sentiments globally as well as domestically. Though it was below market expectations, it worked for the given day. As far as India it looks like the rollover will start today which will give some leeway for higher Nifty trading. In fact, traders in Singapore Exchange provided clues of opening at 4750 but in India it opened at 4700 and started drifting.

Some funds confirmed and did rollover Nifty at 4680 levels which gave some indications of rollover. However, bears again attacked Nifty which made it crack below 4640 to make in intra day exit for Nifty traders. Nifty sell off will happen on every bad news and with Nifty breaching its previous low of JAN 22nd. On the contrary every good news such as LEHMAN saved off will not go well with market for the time being. It also seems certain that there would not be nay intervention from FINMIN as the crash is assigned to global clues. Therefore first the global market needs to get into recovery mode before major buying starts in India.

Though O I have come to Rs 61000 crs and stocks are 27% lower in terms of value of Nifty, the short sellers have not yet decided to cover their shorts.

As reported earlier no fresh calls will be introduced and only optional calls will be made available. Only high risk averse traders that if they deem fit may act without assigning any success or failure rate to us. The valuations have taken big knock as far as small and retail investors are concerned. For them I would advise hold for market reversing. April should bring some sanity back in the market simply because funding will re start for mid cap and small cap stocks.

By and large all big houses have started to buy recommending only A gr shares which are liquid. Yes, only liquid stocks are saleable to allow you exit at death nail rates. Mid cap and small caps stocks have corrected with volumes of few hundred shares and when they will rise it would reverse with similar volumes. The fact, remains since these category is controlled by operators and not FII’s chances of further deterioration is minimal as compared to A gr shares in case if market has to correct to 12 K levels.

If you believe in Sensex target of 11 K then it is easily possible only thing FII need to sell RIL to 1800 which will give a correction of anything between 2200 to 2800 Sensex. Then kill Bhel Larsen and SBI by another 10 to 15% and the damage is done. How far they could be able to sell their delivery stocks…? Orchid stock got battered 45% in just one day with management too selling major chunk indicates whether stock is A gr or B gr it had to be hammered it will get hammered come what it may. But for me B gr provides more cushion especially for small investors because the hidden value in such stocks never get priced at these stages. The pricing starts only when some FII enter these stocks which we consider exit levels.

I know for sure all the investors have deprived off cash to buy more and hence can remain only silent spectator. I think there is nothing wrong is doing so but if you are not over leveraged hold your holdings whether it is in A gr or B gr.

It's not what's happening to you now or what has happened in your past that determines who you become. Rather, it's your decisions about what to focus on, what things mean to you, and what you're going to do about them that will determine your ultimate destiny.

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