i Develop Stocks Advisory

Volatility to stay.......... CLSA technical analyst has gone on record saying that market will test 4440 the JAN low. I remember these were same team who had downgraded India when Sensex was at 5000 saying that India has no future. They were proved wrong. Even when Sensex was at 8990 they had given sell call with target of 6000 which never seen light of the day. At 12400 again they did that only to fail. The issue is investors too need to understand the basic difference between technical tool and fundamentals. Technical may help only very sharp short term traders. But you can’t forget that it is impossible to make money in short term trading every time. A short term trader can go right 5 times with precise accuracy and make money but there is always one bad day for him too which wipes out his entire gains. In fact, the overall assessment of the best in the business is plus in cash and minus in derivatives. One of the reasons which I understand is that derivative products are in real sense only hedge instruments. Instead of using them as hedge instruments traders prefer to use them for naked speculation. The weather and stock market sentiment are really unpredictable for a shorter or very shorter period. Also when you execute such trades you do not the strength of the oppositions. Bulls made mistake in under estimating bear on RPOWER issue time and result is in front of you. Bears, howsoever powerful, can’t under estimate Bulls. What do we call for today’s market behaviour…? De coupling or coupling….? When global peers rose smartly Indian markets sold off on IPP nos which were really not warranted. RIL was holding on the front on one hand so bears used to attack Hindalco, DLF, Tisco, SAIL and SBI. The obvious reason was to break the Bulls strength to support Nifty at 4900 level. Bears succeeded once more. Any way the lost grounds will be made tomorrow because those who have burned their fingers today will shy to trade tomorrow. This is all short term spikes and on a given day both Bulls and Bears can lose the battle. Whereas fundamentals based on facts and figures helps investors to decide the long term trend of the market. We held all along that investors must apply their own mind and not to be governed by the media show faces where the chances of getting mislead is more. We too could have generated buy call in MOST, IIF and Tech Mahindra but we always felt that the valuations were extremely stretched as far as small retail investors are concerned. For FII ideally high priced shares are best ones because they have their back up plan and holding capacity for the sizable period. Again the stocks which are covered by I DEVELOP too have dropped with the drop in market sentiment and Sensex but for sure each and every stock will fire in coming days because of the stringent policy of I DEVELOP to pick a stock with huge upside only. There might be some losers because of their trading category and picked from market perception and not I Develop research fold. Lot of investors still having rush of blood saying that they have bought IDBI at 150 to 160 levels and stock is down to Rs 100 what should they do…? My dear we had been pushing IDBI from Rs 60 and took it to Rs 180 and in between there at 15 to 20 entry exits in IDBI. Why don’t you sum that and call for our performance…? They are also ready to hold for 2 year then what is the problem….? In 2 years Sensex will easily double and stocks will quadruple. You know the market sentiments changes very smartly then why are you so panicky…? A stock fully controlled by FII Asian Electronics corrected by 50% like all other stocks such as RDB, SS Duncan etc and then who are you going to pinpoint…? All A gr shares have plummeted by 30 to 50% then what is a great deal about the B gr crash..? Though we are trying to make a valiant effort to save those who are stuck in F & O at no point in time it was told to you to trade in F & O larger than you could digest. It was made clear that F & O trades should be only to satisfy your passion and the exposure has to be only 10% on your portfolio size. If you had followed this on the very first crash you could have converted your F & O positions into delivery by selling matching stocks from cash segment. This could have helped you to buy peace of mind which is much essential in given set of circumstances. Most of the corporates dealing in forex derivatvies too lost very heavily. Whenever it will be used as speculative instument losses are bound to be there. However, if it is done for passion there is always chances of satisfying your desire as well as making good bucks. The real problem is that you have no policy of one master. You had bought shares in futures from 10 other advisors including brokers and now being unable to bear the losses you are trying to shift the blame on somebody. We are bullish and would remain bullish come what it may…? Those who subscribe to our views may at their own peril can invest in our idea that too after due diligence. One thing is very clear elections are unlikely to happen in 08 and market has been oversold factoring elections. Q4 earnings in next month and monsoon in May will decide the course of market and therefore ELECTION gimmick will not help. Market can’t remain in short for such a long period. Please do not forget those who are long run a maximum risk of losing the cost whereas for short only infinity is the answer. Everyone should learn to do one thing supremely well because he likes it, and one thing supremely well because he detests it.