i Develop Stocks Advisory

Half Empty Half Full It is absolutely true that the growth will taper as a consequence of the CRR rate hike. But market knew it that it could happen and market has corrected 1400 points in last 4 sessions alone on this pretext. GDP was factored in as low as 7% by all FII’s in India and therefore if the CRR rate hike brings down GDP from 8.5% to 7.75% how does it matter…? At 12 PE 09 market has factored in all these negatives and now from hereon if market has to fall then more negative news has to come. If inflation becomes 13% then you can’t stop from market going to even 12000 and if inflation touches 15% then even 9000 is possible. What are the probabilities…? Inflation rose from 8.75% to straight to 11% purely on account of rise in petrol. Now that another petrol price hike is impossible before elections and hence the most of the negativity has been factored in. The real inflation on of food was nominal. Only rise which can come this week is on account of consequential rise in transport cost and other costs due to increase petrol could rake inflation by another 50 basis point. Thereafter inflation has to fall and it will fall. Yesterday the white house discussed a plan to intervene oil speculation by introducing margin and other constraints. Their estimate is that they can bring down the oil to as low as 70 USD in less than 30 days. Whether this will happen or not in such as short span of time I am not sure. But I had predicted 72 USD by March 09 and I precisely believe that this will happen. Now white houses as well as at least dozen foreign analysts too are singing the same tune. What will happen if this happens...? Will Govt reduce the petrol prices by Rs 5 or more in view of election……..? If this happens then will Sensex touch again 20000 with almost zero ownership patterns? The mad sellers so far in India could turn out to be buyers again. This is future which is nobody knows…? The present also suggest the enough damage is already done and we are at the rock bottom end if not at the exact bottom and hence risk raking is must for traders as well as informed investors. Those who go with the wind will never find place in equity market and ideally they should choose MF route and RIL MF is the best outperforming fund at present. Not because they have not earned much but simply because they preserved the cash which they are now deploying heavily. In comparison to others they will outperform in any given market because of their corporate image and support. The heaviest short counter in today’s scenario is J P Associates. Each and every technical expert has sell on this co whereas fundamentally the stock is going at just 10% of their intrinsic value. In pull back this stock will definitely outperform. The average person puts only 25% of his energy and ability into his work. The world takes off its hat to those who put in more than 50% of their capacity, and stands on its head for those few and far between souls who devote 100%