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Monday, June 9, 2008

What Governance...

Inflation is now here to stay and therefore consequential impact such as CRR rate hike etc is unavoidable. As suggested by me yesterday inflation is set to drop down only after monsoon which means Nov and Dec. Inflation on 19 th june could be as high as 9% on the top of petrol hike but post which the biggest question will remain is what next…?

Yesterday handful of short selling is being wound because the much required bad news of petrol hike has seen the light of the day. For fresh selling they require another real bad reason to sell at current levels where bottom formation is happening. For bulls going long they require rock solid good news which is yet to come.

For those who have shorted at 5800 levels and enjoying the bear run it seems there is still long way to go for them to cut their short positions. They are waiting for one more major event which I will spell it out at appropriate time.

At the same time it now seems that market has limited downside and reports of 9000 or 12000 are seems to have been motivated ones. Any way, for the time being most of the traders prefer to rely on technical tools rather than fundamentals of the market. We still hold our fundamental view intact. As far as global investors are concerned India still holds fourth spot of investment destination.

Oil is hurting even western countries and in fact most of the western countries are feeling heat of manufacturing because higher costs and labour. They are closing down their plants or selling it out. Indians are taking over these plants for 2 reasons. One that they getting technology along with huge entry in US markets and two that they have capabilities to manufacture same thing at lower costs to make their plants viable. It is no secret that the Tisco disgusted to bullet of CORUS not for market but for sure for technology. Arcelor was grabbed by Mittal which can’t be forgotten.

The most lucrative segment is auto irrespective of petrol hike. I believe that India will manufacture 5 mn vehicles in next 5 years from current 1 mn. The component will come from India whereas technology will come from acquisitions. Minda looks set to roar in this segment as it has ambitious plans to reach Rs 5000 crs top line by 2012. It is sitting on gold mine in its MAGL which is largest kit fabricator of CNG and LPG. Even at current market price the stock has potential to rise to Rs 1500 per share. Minda Management is shading its conservative image and going all out for Rs 2500 crs acquisitions which mean very shortly there will be FII entry in this counter. Investors will do well holding this stock at least till 4 digit. How many companies FII will get at Rs 320 crs market cap in India with 14 existing plants in India…? I doubt even one…

We have been still receiving lot of complaints that traders are taking big bets on B gr shares even without their capacity to take deliveries. This is pure speculation we strictly discourage the same. Buy only to the extent to which you pockets can allow instead of leveraging on borrowed funds. This is class of operators who leverage on borrowed funds because they know in and out of the stocks and control the price movement also.

Nothing is more surprising than the easiness with which the many are governed by the few..

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