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Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Who 330 minutes...?

Oil fell and Market recovered. Oil is set to fall vertically in coming days which will help market recover lost grounds to a great extent. It is really difficult to see how long it will take to change the factors required to take Nifty past 5400 but fro sure 5100 is in sight. Even that will kill short sellers.

Surprisingly punters and traders come to know about the adverse and bad factors only at the bottom of the cycle where they sell heavily to get themselves trapped. I have seen N of times that those who trade on either side will get screwed. Their success rate can’t be over 50% and with success rate of 50% you can’t make money.

We always prefer to take one sided call and whenever market falls we take this opportunity and may be make little money but for sure make money.

Today I was reading headlines that FII have started selling stake in the cos feeling overheated and promoters are unable to hold the selling flow. It is true and easy when you get easy money and use that money for expansion but when it’s to supporting them you run out of ideas.

This is the precise reason I always advocate that do not buy a stock where FII have large stake and not at fancy price which can be seen better on paper. Sandur, howsoever good is the stock one should book profit and enter in new stocks which are replica of sandur and at the beginning of cycle.

We advised investors to exit from Panyam today irrespective of the fact that this stock has lot of steam. But this stock is in full control of operators and they might rig up the price to Rs 300 but then they will start selling and distributing and you can’t get exit. It is better to exit when the things are in your control.

We were recommending Panyam at Rs 90 to 100 very aggressively and in 2 months it is doubled. Now this is time you must sell panyam and enter FII owned stocks which is full of value such as Gremach and Kernex Micro. Their exit will make this stock to bounce back by at least 100% which means you are making exit in panyam at 400 safely.

We have acquired stake in Network a Delhi based co today as we find the merger of PPS Tower very interesting. PPS Tower is holding co if Network as well as into entertainment biz. Going forward we feel there is case of another sandur into making provided the merger goes through properly and all the value of merging co gets into merged co. It has also spinned off its retail biz into a separate co which is again very positive. Since the preferential allotment to value investors in this co had happened at Rs 50, anything below Rs 50 is a good price for investors for long term basis.

We also have vested interest in all other stocks we have spoken in this section directly or indirectly.

Morning means one more innings given by GOD to play and win. So play your best innings today and have a winning day.

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