i Develop Stocks Advisory

Watch for more cues... It was the day of Jeyswal Neco where FII entered today in a big way. This is how Cni research works. We started with Rs 25 post crash and today at 52 FII entering. Same thing was true with Sandur, Panyam where FII are now entering. We have decided to quit from any fresh recommendation in these 2 stocks. Panyam still there is steam left due to dolomite valuations but stock has to correct to Rs 130 levels once again. In case of Sandur, though management has given interview of Rs 600 crs pat in 09, we believe that the same could be less than Rs 300 crs and therefore the current market price is justified for exit. Another important reason for the exit is that most of the investors had entered in Sandur in or around June 10 last year which means anybody who will sell these shares after 10th June may not have to pay capital gains tax. This temptation could stop them from making exit from this stock today. For smart investors it is better to pay 15% tax instead of sell the stock at 15% lower price and built own capital. Who knows whether the stock will hold the pressure after 10th June 2008? In any case the investors who had entered in this stock at Rs 70 had made clean sweep by taking huge chunk from IDBI at that price which was visible even at that time. In fact, if IDBI could have prevented themselves from washing dirty linens like this its own share price could have been Rs 1000 plus. (Diff between Govt and pvt organisation). Any way, I am not IDBI management here but for sure there could be huge selling in Sandur after 10th June and if FII quota gets over then you have it. Alternatively if the June quarter results miss the nos excepted by analysts then also the stock could falter. The third risk is commodity especially oil and gold are set to fall vertically. Some heat will be felt in iron ore too. Sudden change in demand scenario could deprive you from exit opportunity. On the contrary, Minda Industries which has now proved that it is ahead of industry standards by bagging a prestigious first ever outsourcing order from Volkswagen has to go a long way. The order of Rs 60 crs is a trial order and the analysts tracking this co says co had capability to service even Rs 600 crs order to Volkswagen. In fact, Midna’s entry in the international makes it a good case for international acquisitions. With the acquisitions the size of MindaInd could change from Rs 1000 crs gr to 5000 crs very shortly. As of date the FII ownership is zero in this co is zero and only few very smart investors who have impeccable track record of making 10 baggers have cornered close to 3 to 4% stake in the co. Management holds as high as 74% stake and in no mood to dilute the stake even at Rs 700 per share as their E V is close to Rs 2200 crs on an equity of Rs 10 crs. If you convert Sandur to Minda which has very limited downside could be able to see Sandur growing to Rs 5000 indirectly in 2 years. Rs 3 rise in petrol is fully factored in the market. Oil has started showing weak signs and set to collapse to as low as 90 in next 3 months. But market if has to fall below 4820 then the reason will be something else and not oil or petrol hike. We will wait for further clarity till next Wed. today being Friday, it is also to be seen whether any surprise announcement from RBI comes in to combat inflation. Irrespective the huge volatility and persistent negative factors I maintain my view of new high in 2008 itself. If we don't believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don't believe in it at all