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Tuesday, August 12, 2008

December roses...

Market was almost close to 4677 the 50 pc retracement theory as per chartists and most of the traders made up their mind to go short either at 4677 or max of 4700. Market once again did not allow them to catch the exact top and fell below 4600 instantly on IIP nos. There are 3 holidays starting Friday and general consensus is always in favour of no position ahead of holiday. Much is also talked about the SEBI meeting on P note tomorrow though in my opinion there may be anything.

Ever since 4620 yesterday we avoided to generate buy call in Nifty because we will buy only when street sells it off. We have a stock specific approach at the moment though our targets of Nifty 4700 4812 and 5000 are intact. If market close on weak note then there is every possibility that it will correct further. We have great chance of re entering Nifty at 4460 to 4470 levels again.

Oil, Gold and Silver all collapsed and the way it fell it did not give any chance of covering. Now there could be intermittent rallies in these commodities but my advise could be only actual long users must dare to enter in these three commodities for the next 3 months. The weakness will continue and oil will find its bottom at 72 USD for sure though the buying levels could be anywhere between 90 to 78.

There are few fund managers who believe that the rally in RIL counter is over for now and RIL will never test 2600 again. They claim that RIL satta has broken and neither oil nor gases will this counter. In fact, this belief only made their conviction still stronger to the effective conclusion that the rally is bear rally and will not go past 16000.

I believe otherwise. The best of RIL is yet to be out in public domain. FII which had 27% stake in this co had started making exit when RIL was at Rs 500 cum split. Now the FII holding is as low as 17% and the share price is already up by 6 times. This stock has habit of beating analyst all along. I am very confident of market breaching 18000 that too before Diwali and this will happen with RIL being out performer.

Corrections are here to stay. Only those guys who buy in fall, wait and sell on rise could come out winners. There is no market for intra day trades because of volatility. For sure every dip is a buying opportunity provided you can spot the right stock at the right price.

God gave us memory so that we might have roses in December.

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