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Thursday, March 27, 2008

This Multibagger Will Double in SIX Months ------- I Develop’s Solid Research Multibagger Stocks

Anil Special

Steel Tube

DLF

ACC

Martin

Stelco Gujarat

KIC Metalic

Accurate Transformer

MSP Steel

Asian Oil

RDB

JK Cement

Kernex Impex

Asian Electronics

PowerGrid

MTNL

BEML

Jeyswal Neco

Mastek

Motherson Sumi

ICSA India

Sanco Trans

Sterlin BIO

IRB

Cairn

Coromandal Ferti

Mangalam Cement

Voltas

Essar Oil

GTL

Sesa GOA

Minda

Sirpur

Rainbow Paper

Rama Paper

JP Hydero

JP Associate

GMR

IDFC

India Bulls

Reliance Capital

RNRL

IDBI

IFCI

Unitech

Arvind Mills

Sterlite Optic

R Com

Videocon Ind

D S Kulkarni

Shalimar Paint

Mercator Line

KPIT Cummins

Monnet Ispat

International Con

Electrotherm

Marico

Dabur

Guj NRE Coke

McDowell

Divi Lab

Walchandnagar Ind

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Ford sells Jaguar/Land Rover to Tata-source
U.S. automaker Ford has agreed to sell its luxury brands Jaguar and Land Rover to India's Tata Motors for more than $2 billion, according to a source familiar with the matter. Ford, which signed the deal on Tuesday, plans to publicly announce the transaction in New York at 0800 EST on Wednesday, said another source.

The deal will also see Ford pay about 300 million pounds ($598 million) into Jaguar and Land Rovers' pension funds, according to unions. Ford declined to comment, adding "our first responsibility is to communicate with our employees." The sale had been expected at the start of this month, but it was delayed as the two firms discussed their future relationship, including technology sharing and Ford's provision of engines and body parts for the two brands.

Tata, India's top vehicle maker, has been in talks with Ford since it was chosen as the frontrunner to buy Jaguar and Land Rover a few days into 2008. Tata is pursuing the deal to gain a substantial foothold outside India. But analysts have questioned how Tata will incorporate the luxury brands into its stable of sturdy trucks and functional passenger cars, including the Nano, the world's cheapest car which it unveiled in January.

While Land Rover has generated three years of record sales with its iconic SUVs, the fit of Jaguar is far less clear. Ford, which lost $2.7 billion in 2007 and $12.6 billion in 2006, is spinning off Jaguar and Land Rover to focus on turning around its loss-making operations in North America.

The sale will include a commitment by Tata to continue buying engines from Ford, according to unions. All Jaguar and Land Rover's petrol engines are built in a Ford plant in South Wales, supporting hundreds of jobs there. Diesel engines come from Ford's factory in Dagenham, east London.

One of the sources knocked down reports on Indian television earlier on Tuesday that the deal had been closed for $2.65 billion. "That figure of $2.65 billion is highly unlikely," one source close to the deal said of the report on media. "You have to come south from that by quite a bit."

Ahead of the media reports, shares in Tata Motors rose 2.7 percent to a three-week closing high of 679.95 rupees, in a Mumbai market that surged 6.1 percent. Ford shares were down 0.2 percent at around $5.95 at 1813 GMT.

Japan's Export Growth Unexpectedly Quickens to 8.7%

Japan's export growth unexpectedly accelerated in February as demand from emerging markets helped automakers ride out the U.S. slump.

Exports, which contributed more than half of the economy's expansion last quarter, climbed 8.7 percent from a year earlier after increasing 7.6 percent in January, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 7.5 percent gain.

Consumers in China and Indonesia are helping Hino Motors Ltd. and Honda Motor Co. make up for waning demand in the U.S., Japan's largest market. Overseas sales are proving resilient even after a slump in the U.S. dragged the dollar down 12 percent against the yen this year.

``This is an impressively strong number and we may need to reassess the outlook for exports,'' said Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. ``Exports are less sensitive to the U.S. slowdown than expected.''

Imports increased 10.1 percent, and the trade surplus widened 0.9 percent to 969.9 billion yen ($9.7 billion), the ministry said.

The yen rose to 99.96 per dollar at 11:59 a.m. in Tokyo from 100.07 before the report was published.

Time to capitalise..........
Market did not continue to tempo of yesterday’s rally simply because Bulls though made valiant effort of NAV game bears have gone free for short selling once again. Not a single short position has been squared off. This is very unlikely till 5300.

Yet we sense a great opportunity to capitalize this crash to your personal advantage in B gr stocks where FII are not present. It is a well known fact that most of the broker and big operators are going through a bad patch. They have stuck with F & O losses which is making them sell cash stocks to meet margin requirements. Tomorrow is the last day where they need to sell shares for that reason.

From Friday, fresh positions can be taken as the vallan pay in will fall in next financial year. This will provide leverage to big brokers and operators to consolidate their holdings back to square one and for sure they will do at lower the prices at which they had sold their holdings. E.g Jeyswal Neco was accumulated from Rs 20 to Rs 82 and major volumes happened between Rs 60 to 75. It has coal mines worth Rs 1 lac crs and market cap is just Rs 300 crs. At Rs 80 it had seen market cap of Rs 900 crs plus. It has potential to touch market cap of Rs 10000 crs in just one year which means Rs 300 per share.

Now the fact that those who have bought shares (I would not name here though I know) have sold very few shares to bring the share prices to a level where the innings started. Those who had boarded in between without knowing the stock must have already made exit. Now there is nobody between the share price and the big operator. The real story will be out once the stock crosses 150 to 200 levels.

I am explaining this because I know for sure you can’t get 10 times returns in any A gr shares including Reliance or Reliance Capital but for sure India foils, Asian Oil, RDB, Bajaj Steel, Avon, Network, Jeyswal Neco and lot of other stocks can give you nothing less than 10 times returns in 2 years. Therefore I would advise buy small cap and sit tight instead of general advise of buy A gr and sit tight.

Investors have money for sure but are frightened to invest and fear always does not allow them to ride when it really matters. Those who will buy now will get for sure super doper returns in times to come. Asian Oil will report ESP of Rs 55 to 60, RDB will report ESP of Rs 72, Bajaj Steel will report ESP of Rs 85 and these stocks are available at 1 to 3 PE levels and hence there is nothing to lose.

Sector wise Cement and banking are coming back in reckoning. Lot of people told me that you do not generate sell calls. We had given sell call in REL at 2700, ACC at 1300 and India Infoline at 1900. Now in my opinion cement is bottomed out. BUY ACC with stop loss of Rs 700 and see for one year you will get a price of Rs 1500 plus. Panyam and JK are the safest bet in cash stocks.

Let the fear of a danger be a spur to prevent it; he that fears not, gives advantage to the danger.

B Gr will be King again...

Nothing has changed except two factors. Global markets recovered substantially provided much required vitamin for Indian markets. AMC’s which have got huge cash but much shit valuations is making Fund manager’s life miserable. We know for sure if this attempt is only for saving their Balance Sheet then supply will come in the first week of April in A gr shares. Therefore we do not advise to go long in F & O in these set of circumstances.

As far as delivery is concerned investors looking for 30 to 50% returns may enter quality A gr shares. Investors who are looking 200% plus returns with some appetite of risk must enter B gr shares which have corrected by 75% plus. The price restoration will give you nothing less than 200%. Prices will be restored being no option because the entry of stock specific operators is at too high rates. Whether you call this manipulation or otherwise but this is realty. If money power can bring down or take up the stock prices in any direction then I think even vested investors who have spent life in investing stocks of their choice have right to invest more and take the prices up.

You can’t have 2 set of rules for market investigation. When the share prices goes up by even 15 to 25% exchanges come into play to find out why the prices have gone up unusually. The same exercise is not done when the prices have gone done.

TO safeguard you from the market conceptions I would suggest buy B gr shares simply because those who wanted exit have got exit and those who have bought at higher rates will not sell till their rates come. It is very easy to make killing money in B gr shares now. From 28th March the vallan will be funding vallan and limits will open for operators. They will ramp up their stocks come what it may. Take advantage of this situation and use for your profit which will give nothing less than 50 to 500% returns from 1 month to 24 month horizon.

This is only way remained for you to recoup your losses. For A gr traders I think should think to start trading only when Nifty crosses 5400. Tomorrow again a great day is seen where Nifty may travel towards next psychological barrier 4910 and 5050. Post 5050 bears will come forward for squaring off till 5300.

It is in virtue that happiness consists, for virtue is the state of mind which tends to make the whole of life harmonious.

Monday, March 24, 2008

LIC hikes stake in Reliance Communications to over 5%

State-run Life Insurance Corporation has increased its stake in Anil Ambani-led Reliance Communications to over five per cent.

LIC has acquired three lakh shares representing 0.015 per cent stake in Reliance Communications through open market transaction on March 13, the company said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Calculated on the basis of the closing share price of Reliance Communication on March 13 (Rs 501.45), the deal value amounts to Rs 15.04 crore.

Prior to this transaction LIC had 103,080,576 shares amounting to 4.99 per cent stake in Reliance Communications, which increased to 103,380,576 (5.009

SBI aims at $250 m business in Sri Lanka

Indian banking Titan State Bank of India (SBI) hopes to do business of the order of $250 million in Sri Lanka in the coming three years.

The bank already has a balance sheet size of $150 million, though it has only four branches - three in Colombo city and one in the hill town of Kandy - a company source said.

"Over the last three years, there has been a 50 per cent growth, and the profit is of the order of $3.80 million," the source said.

Worldwide, in 2006-07, SBI had assets totaling $130.33 billion, total deposits of $100.19 billion and a net profit of $1.04 billion.

In its Sri Lankan operations, the Net Non-Performing Assets (NPA), in both the Domestic Banking Unit (DBU) and the Foreign Currency Banking (FCBU), have always been less than two per cent.

The SBI began its operations in Sri Lanka way back in 1864, and is the island's oldest bank.

In its previous avatar as the Imperial Bank of India, it funded the operations of the Ceylon government, and the then-nascent tea industry. Today, as SBI, it is aggressively into financing the working capital needs of the Sri Lankan corporate sector, even as it has strengthened its traditional hold on the financing of exports and imports, especially Sri Lanka-India trade.

Colombo is currently hosting a two-day conference of SBI branches in the south Asian region

6th Pay Commission bonanza for govt staff
The Sixth Pay Commission on Monday submitted its report to the government presumably recommending a 40 per cent hike in salary for the central government employees. The commission, headed by Justice B N Srikrishna, submitted its report to Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday morning.

The recommendations of the commission, when accepted, would provide a bonanza to over 4.5 million central government employees. The commission was set up by government in 2006.

The government has decided to merge 50 per cent of the Dearness Allowance (DA) in the basic pay of its employees and the recommendation would have an impact of substantial increase in salary.

Although the finance minister had not provided for any specific allocation for the salary hike in the budget, he had stated that there was enough head-room.

Earlier, a secretary-level official of the central government said recent reports about the expected increase in salaries were a bit over the top.

"A senior secretary gets Rs 52,000 as monthly salary. I do not expect it to go up to more than Rs 60,000. Salaries of top officials will not be more than that of governors," the official said.

Earlier this year, the Union Cabinet decided to double the salary of the President to Rs 1 lakh (Rs 100,000) a month, even as the Vice-President's salary was raised from Rs 40,000 to Rs 85,000 and that of Governors' from Rs 36,000 to Rs 75,000 a month.

The hike, which is with retrospective effect from January 2006, was necessitated by the fact that members of Parliament were drawing Rs 68,000, more than the Vice-President, who is the Chairman of the Rajya Sabha.

Going by this order of precedent, the country's highest ranking bureaucrat -- the Cabinet Secretary -- cannot be paid more than Rs 75,000.

The financial impact of the Sixth Pay Commission award has been estimated to be within 0.4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), similar to the Fifth Pay Commission award of 1996. Given that the Budget has projected GDP at Rs 5,303,770 crore (Rs 53,037.70 billion) in 2008-09, the impact of the award may well be Rs 21,215 crore (Rs 212.15 billion).

Exaggerated sensitivity...
Market opened at 350 points to correct immediately which was a roll over feature. In bull market rollover happens in rising market whereas in bear market rollover happens in falling market. It is undisputed fact that market is in oversold conditions. Bears are very very unlikely to cut their shorts even if market were to test 5000 plus because of the continued negative news flow.

The only silver lining is 5400 where some short covering is expected. But to reach this level, Bulls have to fight hard because at every rise short selling will keep on happening. I have no doubts in my mind that these levels will be crossed for sure though it would take some time.

Current valuations are by and large vitiated with big players manipulating their profits to avoid tax payment and also to hide their bad performance. This is done by transferring shares held in one scheme to another. Volumes have dried and most of the volumes are transfer entries. Though I T dept is active and carried out few raids in big brokers doing huge volumes it is practically impossible to trace the route as the deals are done in open market.

I am not on what funds are doing but I would like to send you clear message that just do not panic seeing these valuations. In fact the speed at which the valuations have fallen will see rise again when market will take U turn. I think market will start recovering in April but surely B gr stocks will recover faster. Most of the so-called operators too are stuck in the valuation game and their over leveraged positions made them to throw some stocks in the ocean. Their margin funding came to knot. This embargo will resolve in April. If stocks which are trading below the preferential allotment prices are best one to offer decent returns because these allotments were made at fair prices. Eg RDB where the operator was allotted shares at Rs 170 and cmp is Rs 100 co doing extremely well with EPS over Rs 20 and 50 (exp 09). Another example is Avon stock is 50% below the open offer. Anil 50% below the promoters stake increase etc.

You can make a good research on this and make your investment decisions for 50% returns. In any case, now in this kind of market investors become smarter than us and hence may not require counseling. In good Bull market too they do not require. This is how the quote has become famous “FEAR and GREED”.

Hardly 1% investors are able to break thy vicious cycle of Fear and greed. I would personally wish that if this no. goes to even 5% market will become very healthy. At least we at I DEVELOP wish that our follower should adopt this policy. Avoid F & O and become contrarians in B gr but with some guidance and technique of stock picking.

Only one question must be haunting in the minds of all the investors….what should they do with their delivery stocks…? We hold our long term view intact and surely believe that the valuations will be back in course of time except few sectors. Investors who go by fear have no excuse and sell all out to see cash which will also evaporate in course of time. Investors who are calm and can bite the bullet will get the share of profit. And investors who can’t decide which side to jump will lose on either side.

One of the broking house generated short call on Bombay Dyeing today when the news of MIG colony was already out in Marathi newspaper and likely to be out in other newspapers shortly. It is good if these counters are becoming oversold at the lowers rates then only it can find bottom.

Exaggerated sensitiveness is an expression of the feeling of inferiority.

Railway surplus land to be auctioned

The Railway's much awaited commercial development plan for surplus land is set to go under hammer in the second week of April. In Delhi's Sarai Rohilla, one of the ten sites selected for commercial development in the first phase on public-priv ate partnership basis, the first railway property would be handed over to a private developer on April 11.While eight bidders are in the race for getting about 25 acres of prime railway land in Sarai Rohilla, the reserve price is fixed at Rs 675 crore fo r the bidding.

The bidding would be opened in the second week of April and the highest bidder would be entrusted with the responsibility of developing a group housing complexes complete with all modern facilities including shopping complexes and health services, said a senior railway official.

Besides the reserve price, the developer has to renovate 750 railway quarters near the site as part of the development agreement. The report of the feasibility study for commercial development of the 10 sites spread over 265 acres of land has been submit ted to the Rail Land Development Authority (RLDA).

The 10 sites are located in Delhi, Kanpur, Gwalior, Vizag, Kolkata, and Bangalore. After Sarai Rohilla, the next bidding would be for Nirala Nagar land in Kanpur, the official said.

Fed May Buy Mortgages Next, Treasury Investors Bet

Forget lower interest rates. For the Federal Reserve to keep the financial markets from imploding it needs to buy troubled mortgage bonds from banks and securities firms, say the world's biggest Treasury investors.

Even after cutting rates by 3 percentage points since September, expanding the range of securities it accepts as collateral for loans and giving dealers access to its discount window, the Fed has been unable to promote confidence. The difference between what the government and banks pay for three- month loans doubled in the past month to 1.92 percentage points.

The only tool left may be for the Fed to help facilitate a Resolution Trust Corp.-type agency that would buy bonds backed by home loans, said Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. While purchasing the some of the $6 trillion mortgage securities outstanding would take problem debt off the balance sheets of banks and alleviate the cause of the credit crunch, it would put taxpayers at risk.

``An RTC-type structure is interesting, and it may not be that much of a burden on taxpayers in the long run,'' said Barr Segal, a managing director at Los Angeles-based TCW Group Inc. who helps oversee $80 billion in fixed-income assets. The government should purchase the mortgages and reissue ``debt that's backed by the U.S. government and there you go, you've unclogged the drain,'' he said.

Nerve before the event.....
Markets were very nerve just before the event. The nervousness showed today in the form of high volatility. Markets were moving both ways and were range bound barring couple of hours at the close were fresh long and short covering was noticed amid the Fed event but at the end of it profit booking took its toll on the market.

Since the outcome of the Fed meet is just round the corner with an expectation of 100bps rate cut it is interesting to see how the market reacts. We would talk about the upside after we see how the markets react to the Fed outcome tomorrow. As far as downside is concerned it seems as if the bottom is either very close or we are at the bottom and hence it would be a good time to buy now.

Although the word bottom is a bit vague word as for ex. If a further bad news appears on the time horizon the markets might have a further downside risk. But for now it seems as if the market should start consolidating from April as there are only 5 trading days left in this vallan.

Today’s robust advance tax numbers speak for them self about our economic condition and hence we need not worry about what people say. Just invest and hold for 1 year and believe me you would not regret.

"An acre of performance is worth a whole world of promise."

Right focus...
Fed cut of 75 bsp has lifted sentiments globally as well as domestically. Though it was below market expectations, it worked for the given day. As far as India it looks like the rollover will start today which will give some leeway for higher Nifty trading. In fact, traders in Singapore Exchange provided clues of opening at 4750 but in India it opened at 4700 and started drifting.

Some funds confirmed and did rollover Nifty at 4680 levels which gave some indications of rollover. However, bears again attacked Nifty which made it crack below 4640 to make in intra day exit for Nifty traders. Nifty sell off will happen on every bad news and with Nifty breaching its previous low of JAN 22nd. On the contrary every good news such as LEHMAN saved off will not go well with market for the time being. It also seems certain that there would not be nay intervention from FINMIN as the crash is assigned to global clues. Therefore first the global market needs to get into recovery mode before major buying starts in India.

Though O I have come to Rs 61000 crs and stocks are 27% lower in terms of value of Nifty, the short sellers have not yet decided to cover their shorts.

As reported earlier no fresh calls will be introduced and only optional calls will be made available. Only high risk averse traders that if they deem fit may act without assigning any success or failure rate to us. The valuations have taken big knock as far as small and retail investors are concerned. For them I would advise hold for market reversing. April should bring some sanity back in the market simply because funding will re start for mid cap and small cap stocks.

By and large all big houses have started to buy recommending only A gr shares which are liquid. Yes, only liquid stocks are saleable to allow you exit at death nail rates. Mid cap and small caps stocks have corrected with volumes of few hundred shares and when they will rise it would reverse with similar volumes. The fact, remains since these category is controlled by operators and not FII’s chances of further deterioration is minimal as compared to A gr shares in case if market has to correct to 12 K levels.

If you believe in Sensex target of 11 K then it is easily possible only thing FII need to sell RIL to 1800 which will give a correction of anything between 2200 to 2800 Sensex. Then kill Bhel Larsen and SBI by another 10 to 15% and the damage is done. How far they could be able to sell their delivery stocks…? Orchid stock got battered 45% in just one day with management too selling major chunk indicates whether stock is A gr or B gr it had to be hammered it will get hammered come what it may. But for me B gr provides more cushion especially for small investors because the hidden value in such stocks never get priced at these stages. The pricing starts only when some FII enter these stocks which we consider exit levels.

I know for sure all the investors have deprived off cash to buy more and hence can remain only silent spectator. I think there is nothing wrong is doing so but if you are not over leveraged hold your holdings whether it is in A gr or B gr.

It's not what's happening to you now or what has happened in your past that determines who you become. Rather, it's your decisions about what to focus on, what things mean to you, and what you're going to do about them that will determine your ultimate destiny.

Hong Kong Rate Cut Spark Pan-Asian Rally

In Hong Kong, the Monetary Authority followed the Fed in cutting the base rate for its discount window by 75 basis points, to 3.75%.

Inflation rises to 11-month high of 5.92%

Inflation surged to over 11-month high of 5.92 per cent for the week ended March 8 as essential items like fruits and vegetables and pulses as well as some manufactured items turned expensive.

The whopping rise in inflation rate would not allow the RBI to go for soft monetary stance as it is way above the central bank's tolerance level of five per cent for this fiscal, analysts said. The wholesale prices-based inflation stood at 5.11 per cent in the previous week. The spurt in inflation rate happened despite a high base of 6.51 per cent a year ago.

During the week, food articles like arhar, gram, moong, maize, fruits and vegetables as well as condiments and spices went dearer. Prices of furnace oil, which is an industrial oil, went up by 2 per cent. Manufactured products like imported edible oil, coconut oil, mustard oil, also turned dearer.

The Government had announced a ban on export of all edible oils with effect from March 17 for a period of one year to curb their rising prices. - PTI

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Reliance Power clarifies on news item

With reference to the news item appearing in a leading financial daily titled "R-Power buys Indonesia mine", Reliance Power Ltd has clarified to that the Company and its subsidiaries, as part of their regular business activity, enter into agreements / arrangements to further their businesses including sourcing fuel for projects of Reliance Power Ltd.

L&T to supply world's largest Coal Gasifier to China
Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T) has announced that the Heavy Engineering Division of Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T) has bagged a contract valued at Euro 28 million (Rs 170 cr.) for supply of the "Coal Gasifier and Syngas Cooler assembly" to M/s. Hebi Coal and Electricity Co. Ltd., subsidiary of Zhongyuan Coal Chemical Industry Group, People's Republic of China.

The complete Gasifier assembly & the structure, which is expected to weigh 1740 MT, is the world's largest and heaviest Gasifier assembly, with a capacity to handle 3400 tpd of coal. The assembly will be the heart of a Methanol Plant with a capacity of 600,000 tpa. The order was won through an international competitive bidding process.

The equipment will be manufactured from advanced technology steels at L&T's state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities at Powai & Hazira. The Hazira facilities are situated on the waterfront with easy access to the sea for ease of shipment.

Mr. M V Kotwal, Member of the Board & Senior Executive Vice President stated that the manufacture of this Gasifier will require transportation of the large fabricated sections, with on-site assembly, testing and erection. He said that although such jobs pose enormous challenges, the teams at L&T are confident of meeting the requirements, given their track record of having successfully completed similar work on Gasifiers supplied to remote locations in China, where ambient temperatures were as low as minus 30 degrees Celsius.

L&T has supplied several large Coal Gasifiers to China for various Ammonia, Methanol, Olefin and Coal-to-Liquid Fuel projects.

With rising costs of oil & natural gas, coal gasification provides a promising future to provide a cost effective alternative feedstock for downstream Power, Fertilizer, Petrochemical complexes and Coal to Liquid Fuel plants.

Lehman Net Income Declines 57%

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said profit fell 57 percent, less than analysts estimated, a day after the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm lost 19 percent of market value following the fire sale of Bear Stearns Cos.

First-quarter net income declined to $489 million, or 81 cents a share, from $1.15 billion, or $1.96, a year earlier, the New York-based firm said in statement today. Lehman rose 14 percent in early trading after profit beat the 72-cent average estimate of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Goldman Sachs Profit Falls 53%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm by market value, reported a smaller-than-estimated 53 percent drop in first-quarter profit after asset writedowns and lower fees from investment banking.

Net income fell to $1.51 billion, or $3.23 a share, in the three months ended Feb. 29 from $3.2 billion, or $6.67, a year earlier, the New York-based firm said in a statement today. The average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for $2.59 a share, with forecasts ranging from $1.95 to $3.40.

Fed cuts bank rate to boost confidence
The move aims to improve market liquidity.

The Federal Reserve on Sunday cut the discount rate for banks by 25 basis points to 3.25 per cent and created a new lending facility for other financial institutions in an attempt to boost market liquidity.

In announcing the surprise move, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US central bank, said the Fed and Treasury were “working to promote liquid, well-functioning financial markets, which are essential for economic growth”.

“First, we have introduced a special lending facility that will provide liquidity to primary dealers at terms similar to those available to banks at the discount window,” said Bernanke.

“Second, we reduced the discount rate by ¼ per cent and increased the maximum maturity of discount window loans to 90 days. These steps will provide financial institutions with greater assurance of access to funds.”

Separately, the Fed agreed to fund up to $30 billion (£15billion) to help JPMorgan complete its planned purchase of Bear Stearns, a deal that was finalised on Sunday.Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Fed, said the moves were “designed to help get liquidity to where it can help play an appropriate role?.?.?.?to address a range of challenges”.

The Fed said the new lending facility would be available for at least six months, and possibly longer depending on market conditions. The credit provided under the new facility would be collateralised by investment grade debt securities, and would be charged the same rate as the discount rate.

Senior Fed officials described the surprise action as a broad arrangement to reduce risk across the system. They dismissed suggestions that it was aimed at preventing a situation where they might have to rescue other investment banks, as they did with Bear Stearns last week.

One official said the move was an offensive, not defensive, action aimed at helping the market system. Before the Fed announced its actions on Sunday night, Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, had defended last week’s move to rescue Bear Stearns.

He added that the government would take whatever actions were necessary to ensure the stability of the US financial system.

Mr Paulson said he was convinced the Fed’s move to provide emergency funding to the stricken investment bank was the “right decision” even though he recognised the risk of moral hazard.

“You need to balance these two considerations,” Mr Paulson told Fox News. “At this time, given where we are, and given how important it is to minimise disruptions in our capital markets, and how important it is to protect the economy?.?.?.?this was the right decision.”

The Treasury secretary declined to say whether the government would be prepared to rescue any other investment banks that ran into similar difficulties, but stressed that the “number one priority” was the stability of the US financial system.


Please which one of the following belong to you?

There are many type of traders, an awareness of the varieties allows you to avoid the pitfalls.

THE DISCIPLINED TRADER.

This is the ideal type of trader, you take your profits and loses with ease, you focus on your system and follow it with discipline.Trading is usually a relax activity,you appreciate that a loss does not make you a
looser.

THE DOUBTER.

you find it difficult to execute at signals, you doubt your won abilities.You need to develop confidence.Perhaps you should paper trade.

BLAMER

All losses are someones else 's fault, you blame bad fills, your broker for picking the phone up to slowly , our system for not being perfect, you need to regain your objectivity and self-responsibility.

VICTIM

You blame yourself, you feel the market is out to get you, you start becoming superstitious in your trading.

OPTIMIST.

You start thinking it's only money , ill make it back later. you think all losses will bounce back to profits, or that you will start trading properly tomorrow.

GAMBLER.

You are in for the trill, Money is a side issue. Risk and reward analysis hardly figure in your trade, You want to be a player, want the buzz and excitement.

TIMID.

You enter a trade, but panic at the sight of a profit and take it far to soon, Fear rules your trading.

Asian Stocks Decline, Reversing Gains

Asian stocks fell, reversing earlier gains, after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said his government will take ``forceful'' measures to combat inflation.

China Mobile Ltd., the world's largest wireless company by users, slumped in Hong Kong on speculation China will raise interest rates, slowing the world's fastest-growing major economy. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, tumbled after copper and aluminum prices declined.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.4 percent to 131.82 as of 12:40 p.m. in Tokyo. The benchmark, down 17 percent this year, erased an earlier 1 percent climb after Wen's statements, made to reporters in Beijing today.

``The official comment has renewed the mounting concerns around the market that corporate earnings growth will slow down, because of the Chinese government's tightening measures,'' said Lu Yizhen, who helps manage the equivalent of $640 million at Citic-Prudential Fund Management Co. in Shanghai.

China's CSI 300 Index slumped 3 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index tumbled 1.7 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.4 percent to 11,838.34. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. rose as the cost to protect Japanese corporate bonds declined.

SBI looking to sell products via e-gram

The Gujarat government-pioneered e-gram project, which aims to facilitate e-governance initiatives in villages through a central information and communications technology (ICT) system could soon also act as a business facilitator for banking products.

State Bank of India (SBI) is working on this project, which would see e-gram kiosks be able to facilitate checking of account balance, deposits, loans, insurance and other banking services through the Internet in tandem with the nearest SBI branch.

“This is for the first time a project like this would be taken up in the country. Through this service, people from rural areas who live far away from a bank branch will be able to avail of banking products without having to personally visit the nearest branch,” said HC Pattnaik, chief general manager, SBI (Gujarat).

He added that Vadodara and areas near the city would in most likelihood get the nod for the pilot implementation of the project.

SBI’s branches are under the core banking system and modalities are being worked out on whether the rural ICT kiosks would be compatible with the technology or a new platform would have to be created. The bank is looking at targeting more than 5,000 rural ICT kiosks in the next one year to double up as its banking facilitator.

Under the Reserve Bank of India guidelines, banks are permitted use of services of non-governmental organisations/self-help groups, microfinance institutions and other civil society organisations as intermediaries in providing financial and banking services through the use of business facilitator and correspondent models.

A business facilitator can undertake identification of borrowers, collection and preliminary processing of loan applications, marketing products and follow-up for recovery whereas a business correspondent can undertake activities such as disbursal of small value credit, recovery of principal or collection of interest and small value deposits.

The bank’s other rural initiative, SBI Tiny account, could also come to Gujarat this year. The initiative will enable villagers to start a bank account with deposit amount as low as Rs 50. The account can be maintained with zero balance.

Also, a business correspondent for SBI can use his/her cellphone to record transactions which, in turn, is connected to a central server in Mumbai. The project is currently being piloted at Arunachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

“We are looking at business from facilitators and correspondents to go up increasingly. In the next two years, we could earn as much as Rs 1 crore per year from each of the facilitator centres we associate with,” said Pattnaik.

Under the business facilitator model, SBI has already signed an MoU with India Post to act as a facilitator for 50 post offices in a pilot project at Surendranagar, Anand and Bharuch districts in Gujarat. It has also signed up with Gujarat Agro Industries Corporation to market the bank’s products in 700 outlets of the 1,200 outlets in the state.

Further, SBI is looking at milk unions as facilitators. It has signed MoUs with Sabarkantha Dairy, Dudhsagar Dairy and Amul. The bank is looking to tie up with 7-8 more co-operatives in the next one year.

Nerve before the event.....

Markets were very nerve just before the event. The nervousness showed today in the form of high volatility. Markets were moving both ways and were range bound barring couple of hours at the close were fresh long and short covering was noticed amid the Fed event but at the end of it profit booking took its toll on the market.

Since the outcome of the Fed meet is just round the corner with an expectation of 100bps rate cut it is interesting to see how the market reacts. We would talk about the upside after we see how the markets react to the Fed outcome tomorrow. As far as downside is concerned it seems as if the bottom is either very close or we are at the bottom and hence it would be a good time to buy now.

Although the word bottom is a bit vague word as for ex. If a further bad news appears on the time horizon the markets might have a further downside risk. But for now it seems as if the market should start consolidating from April as there are only 5 trading days left in this vallan.

Today’s robust advance tax numbers speak for them self about our economic condition and hence we need not worry about what people say. Just invest and hold for 1 year and believe me you would not regret.

"An acre of performance is worth a whole world of promise."

Shock to economic growth

In a recent FII conference held in Mumbai one of the economists Dr Ajay Shah has expressed his views on India’s monetary and fiscal framework.

“The key take-away from Dr Ajay Shah's luncheon presentation was that while India does not have the characteristics of a typical emerging market, it is not equipped to cope with shocks to economic growth due to the lack of an appropriate monetary and fiscal stabilisation framework.

The reason is that in the past, India was prone to shocks driven by monsoon failure rather than business cycle dynamics, as investments largely comprised of public spending which was relatively stable. With over half of the gross capital formation coming from the private sector, the business cycle is more relevant to growth today.

The key reasons why Dr Shah believes that India's monetary policy is illequipped to deal with shocks are: (1) a de facto pegged exchange rate regime, which coupled with an open capital account, precludes monetary policy autonomy; and (2) an effective monetary policy transmission mechanism. On the fiscal front, given the current level of deficits, India does not have the leeway for a large scale stimulus.

As a result, even though GDP growth has risen to 9.6% in four years from 3.8% in 2002-03, given the lack of a stabilisation framework, a shock could negatively impact growth just as fast and lead to high growth volatility.”

Monday, March 17, 2008

SBI loses only Rs 1 crore in overseas credit derivatives
The government on Saturday said State Bank of India has suffered a loss of only Rs 1 crore in the overseas credit derivatives market even as private lender ICICI Bank has reported a loss of over Rs 1,000 crore.

“SBI has suffered a mark-to-market loss of Rs 1 crore because of exposure to overseas credit derivatives and investments,” Minister of State for Finance Pawan Bansal told reporters here.

Bansal claimed that the bank did not suffer any actual loss. “It is just a notional loss which arose after the exposure to overseas credit derivatives,” he said.

Other Indian banks which have reported losses due to exposure to overseas credit derivatives include Bank of India and Bank of Baroda.

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