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Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Faith can move mountains...

For the first time that it was seen the FII panic selling happened yesterday which saw rupee sliding over 1%. This was now assigned to redemption pressure on Hedge funds whereas domestic funds are yet to get the same kind of pressure.

Market has shown huge selling pressure on the back of sustained bear attack from the quarters who had made killing in 2000 bear attack. So far, Nifty is favoring them because their average sell price is still close to 5400 and hence so long as 5400 is not crossed they will are unlikely to come forward for short covering. For them it hardly matters whether the Budget is good or whether there is de coupling with global markets.

One of the die hard old time bear known to have made exit from the market for quite some time has reentered at the fag end of the rally now started calling his shots in this bear attack. He is been supported by few funds and operators who had burnt fingers earlier. They are hardcore and sharp traders too and having got huge vallan they will not surrender so easily to Bulls.

Bulls have taken back seat at the moment with even FII just holding back their buy orders which on any given day could be 10 times larger than the sell figures. Whether is it is bull trap for bears is really required to be seen…? One thought of school is that Bulls wanted bears to do the maximum damage so that they could enter exactly at the bottom and try to change the cards in their favour. Another thought of school suggest that Bulls are tired and running short of liquidity in March 2008. Titans are clashing and we have to just wait and watch for this game to be over.

It is also underestimated by bears that Bulls may not strike back. So far I am aware Bulls themselves become bears once certain levels are broken so that they can buy at lower levels. It should also be understood that bears too loose in the process because though they get huge pay outs in F & O they too losing very heavily in delivery stock valuations. You have to wait for Bulls to attack with vengeance.

Market is close to all time low which was hit on 22nd Jan ( 15332) and set to break these levels very shortly as the game is in total control of bears at the moment. They have been now attacking all financial sectors stocks more specifically broking firms where they feel the valuations are not justified. In fact, they have echoed that few firms may even report losses due to the bad quarter as well as big bad debts from retail and HNI’s. Suddenly the valuations are getting knocked off.

Unless Bulls comes out with their entire potential to make bears check and mate market may struggle in the range. It could be really fair on the part of traders not to lose any more money in trading. If you have open positions in F & O convert the same into delivery to the extent possible which is must to understand market better.

At the same time stocks where FII presence is not there and retail is completely out have stopped falling and may find value buyers. The pain will be visible to F & O traders more than cash investors.

At the same time I am still reiterate that the Bull not is intact and our targets too are intact. It is just matter of time because the covering will start only if there is an event or news which can just make them feels the heat. The underlying fundamentals are neither changed nor likely to change. Economy is doing well and F M will surpass its estimates for sure. With the estimates of F M on revenue fronts Sensex 27 K is possible. Therefore investors should stay invested whereas traders avoid trading for next 2 to 3 weeks.

If there be a faith that can move mountains, it is faith in one's own power.

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