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Monday, March 24, 2008

Exaggerated sensitivity...
Market opened at 350 points to correct immediately which was a roll over feature. In bull market rollover happens in rising market whereas in bear market rollover happens in falling market. It is undisputed fact that market is in oversold conditions. Bears are very very unlikely to cut their shorts even if market were to test 5000 plus because of the continued negative news flow.

The only silver lining is 5400 where some short covering is expected. But to reach this level, Bulls have to fight hard because at every rise short selling will keep on happening. I have no doubts in my mind that these levels will be crossed for sure though it would take some time.

Current valuations are by and large vitiated with big players manipulating their profits to avoid tax payment and also to hide their bad performance. This is done by transferring shares held in one scheme to another. Volumes have dried and most of the volumes are transfer entries. Though I T dept is active and carried out few raids in big brokers doing huge volumes it is practically impossible to trace the route as the deals are done in open market.

I am not on what funds are doing but I would like to send you clear message that just do not panic seeing these valuations. In fact the speed at which the valuations have fallen will see rise again when market will take U turn. I think market will start recovering in April but surely B gr stocks will recover faster. Most of the so-called operators too are stuck in the valuation game and their over leveraged positions made them to throw some stocks in the ocean. Their margin funding came to knot. This embargo will resolve in April. If stocks which are trading below the preferential allotment prices are best one to offer decent returns because these allotments were made at fair prices. Eg RDB where the operator was allotted shares at Rs 170 and cmp is Rs 100 co doing extremely well with EPS over Rs 20 and 50 (exp 09). Another example is Avon stock is 50% below the open offer. Anil 50% below the promoters stake increase etc.

You can make a good research on this and make your investment decisions for 50% returns. In any case, now in this kind of market investors become smarter than us and hence may not require counseling. In good Bull market too they do not require. This is how the quote has become famous “FEAR and GREED”.

Hardly 1% investors are able to break thy vicious cycle of Fear and greed. I would personally wish that if this no. goes to even 5% market will become very healthy. At least we at I DEVELOP wish that our follower should adopt this policy. Avoid F & O and become contrarians in B gr but with some guidance and technique of stock picking.

Only one question must be haunting in the minds of all the investors….what should they do with their delivery stocks…? We hold our long term view intact and surely believe that the valuations will be back in course of time except few sectors. Investors who go by fear have no excuse and sell all out to see cash which will also evaporate in course of time. Investors who are calm and can bite the bullet will get the share of profit. And investors who can’t decide which side to jump will lose on either side.

One of the broking house generated short call on Bombay Dyeing today when the news of MIG colony was already out in Marathi newspaper and likely to be out in other newspapers shortly. It is good if these counters are becoming oversold at the lowers rates then only it can find bottom.

Exaggerated sensitiveness is an expression of the feeling of inferiority.

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