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Friday, March 7, 2008

U.S. Treasuries Gain as Traders Increase Bets for Fed Rate Cuts

Treasuries rose, pushing two-year yields to the lowest in 4 1/2 years, on speculation rising unemployment and widening credit-market losses will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by as much as 100 basis points this month.

Traders see a 32 percent chance the Fed will lower its target rate for overnight lending between banks to 2 percent by its March 18 meeting, according to interest-rate futures. Stocks fell and the cost of insuring corporate bonds against default soared. The yield difference between two- and 10-year notes was 1 basis point short of the widest in almost four years on concern the rate reductions will stoke inflation.

Two-year yields fell 11 basis points to 1.42 percent as of 6:50 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 2 percent note due February 2010 rose 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 1/8. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

The yield touched 1.404 percent, the lowest level since July 2003. It has slipped 18 basis points this week, while 10-year yields were little changed on the week at 3.50 percent.

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Economic Event Calendar

GMT+5:30 Event Vol. Actual Consensus Previous
Monday, Jun 02
14:00 M4 Money Supply (MoM) 1 0.0% 0.3%
14:00 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 1 46.4 45.1 45.1
14:00 Mortgage Approvals 1 60.463K 63.000K 63.603K Revised from 64.309K
14:00 Consumer Credit 1 £1.580B £1.100B £1.102B Revised from £0.875B
14:00 Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) 1 £0.82B £2.80B £14.10B Revised from £13.80B
19:00 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 2 45.3
19:15 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 1 52.3 52.3
19:30 ISM Manufacturing PMI 3 49.5 48.7
19:30 ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid 2 70.2 69.8
19:30 ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 2 47.2
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