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Friday, March 7, 2008

U.S. Treasuries Gain as Traders Increase Bets for Fed Rate Cuts

Treasuries rose, pushing two-year yields to the lowest in 4 1/2 years, on speculation rising unemployment and widening credit-market losses will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by as much as 100 basis points this month.

Traders see a 32 percent chance the Fed will lower its target rate for overnight lending between banks to 2 percent by its March 18 meeting, according to interest-rate futures. Stocks fell and the cost of insuring corporate bonds against default soared. The yield difference between two- and 10-year notes was 1 basis point short of the widest in almost four years on concern the rate reductions will stoke inflation.

Two-year yields fell 11 basis points to 1.42 percent as of 6:50 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 2 percent note due February 2010 rose 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 1/8. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

The yield touched 1.404 percent, the lowest level since July 2003. It has slipped 18 basis points this week, while 10-year yields were little changed on the week at 3.50 percent.

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Economic Event Calendar

GMT+5:30 Event Vol. Actual Consensus Previous
Monday, Jun 16
21:00 6-Month Bill Auction 1 4.155% 4.150%
21:00 3-Month Bill Auction 1 4.24% 4.25%
22:30 20-Year Bond Auction 1 4.942% 5.047%
Tuesday, Jun 17
04:15 Food Price Index (MoM) 1 0.5% 0.8%
18:00 Retail Sales (YoY) 1 5.2%
18:00 Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) 2 0.1% 0.1%
18:00 Retail Sales Control Group 3 -0.2%
18:00 Retail Sales (MoM) 3 -0.7% 0.1%
18:00 Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities 1 $15.63B
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