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Monday, March 10, 2008

Fed may continue slashing rates as payrolls decline

The Federal Reserve may keep lowering interest rates and postpone the “rapid reversal” of reductions that officials discussed in January, as the housing rout erodes hiring and spending. The employment report, showing the economy lost 85,000 jobs in the first two months of 2008, altered economists’ and traders’ expectations for how much the Fed will cut rates and how long it will hold them down.

Increasing signs the US is in a recession, along with a further deterioration in credit markets, spurred traders to bet the Fed will cut its benchmark rate as low as 1.75% by June. The weakening housing and labor markets are also putting pressure on the Bush administration to do more to stem the surge in foreclosures and ease a shortage of cash in money markets.

“The economy faces considerable headwinds and rates will have to stay low,” said Brian Sack, a senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers in Washington. “Weakness in payroll growth, falling confidence, declining wealth, and tighter credit conditions all add up to a weak outlook.”

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Economic Event Calendar

GMT+5:30 Event Vol. Actual Consensus Previous
Wednesday, Jun 18
11:30 Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3 3.5% 3.6% 3.8%
11:30 Consumer Price Index (MoM) 3 0.2% 0.2% 1.2%
11:30 Retail Price Index (MoM) 2 0.2% 1.7%
11:30 Retail Price Index (YoY) 2 4.3% 4.3% 4.5%
14:00 DCLG House Price Index (YoY) 1 3.5% 7.0% Revised from 6.4%
16:30 MBA Mortgage Applications 1 12.5%
18:00 Building Permits Change 1 -4.0% Revised from -4.7%
18:00 Housing Starts Change 1 1.6%
18:00 Housing Starts (MoM) 2 1.360M 1.361M
18:00 Building Permits (MoM) 2 1.430M 1.422M Revised from 1.412M
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