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Thursday, January 31, 2008

No time to sell but to invest.....

The annual session on Global Economic Outlook at Davos could not have been better timed as it immediately followed the recent global capital markets plunge.

The IMF managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, stated that the US subprime crisis was due to lack of financial regulation. Low interest rates, high liquidity, a breakdown of credit and risk management practices, and a shortcoming in US financial regulation and supervision had produced an economic storm in the financial world and called for its recognition.

Strauss-Kahn called for a “serious response” to the risk of a US recession and encouraged fiscal stimulus programmes in some countries: “We cannot rely only on monetary policy. Some countries are not in a situation to increase the deficit, but others are in the position where there is some room for fiscal loosening.”

Strauss-Kahn said that the first priority is the restoration of normal function in financial markets, which means that the central banks should provide funding to interbank markets.

The IMF MD suggested that the slowdown could result in a decrease of the price of commodities, including oil, which would provide room for a more active monetary policy, “There will probably be even more room to lower rates in the coming weeks or months depending on the price of commodities and on the decreasing demand.”
He recommended that larger systemic financial institutions raise capital instead of selling off assets.

He warned against excessive supervision exacerbating the crisis by calling for financial institutions to make balance sheet corrections on the asset side rather than securing capital.


Strauss-Kahn said that the IMF revised forecast to be released next week will forecast a slowdown even if emerging markets appear to be doing well, for the last week’s experience shows that the markets are not yet decoupled.

Earlier, Finance Minister P Chidambaram had said that India was not affected by the slowdown. Its economy is driven by investment, consumption and exports, and has been undergoing an investment boom fuelled by savings that add up to 35% of GDP. He expects only minor secondary effects from the US slowdown, but it could be re-assessed if there is a full-blown crisis. India has a small current account deficit and a fiscal deficit. He cannot speak for other emerging economies.

Sanguine Media - Press Release

Sanguine Media Ltd has announced that the Company has initiated a new division "PURPLE TIES", Purple signifies royalty, creativity, Luxury & nobility. PURPLE TIES will reach the "Purple People" directly by tying up with the premium & prestigious Clubs in India.

Phase 1 will be initiated in Chennai and other Southern Metros, PURPLE TIES will redefine entertainment with its creativity and spontaneity. This Tie up will help the brand managers to reach the “Purple people” through dedicated and customized happening events.

In the present marketing scenario, with so much of clutter distracting the potential customer, getting the attention from the target audience today is the key for the brand’s success. Increasingly brands turn to Innovative method to reach the Target Customers, a cost effective and rewarding solution will be to reach the target audience when they are at leisure: this will give them quality time to touch, feel or experience the product. In summary a total product experience.

In Phase 1, with more than 200 Clubs in Southern India having a combined membership of over half a million, PUPRLE TIES will emerge as an extended arm for the brands desiring to reach the Purple People.

The club Industry is growing exponentially: with the increase in the disposable income, newer and exclusive clubs are coming up even in tier 2 & 3 Cities. The present entertainment available to the club is largely restricted to Games and Film Screening.

With National & International Tie up with performing artists, chefs, designers & fitness consultants, PURPLE TIES will bring in the much needed variety in recreation and entertainment calendar of the clubs.

Cabinet likely to consider fuel price hike next week: Deora

On 31 January 2008, Oil Minister Murli Deora informed that the cabinet was likely to consider a fuel price hike next week.

The meeting with other members of the ministerial panel formed by the Indian goverment to look into the fuel pricing issue was inconclusive and no decision has been taken as yet.

Reliance Comm Q3 net up 48%
Reliance Communications today reported a 48.5% increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 1,372.83 crore for the third quarter ended December, 2007, when compared a profit of Rs 924.45 crore posted in the corresponding quarter a year ago.

According to a release issued by the company today, the group's total income for Q3FY08 was up 29.8% at Rs 4,874.20 crore as against Rs 3,755.30 crore in Q3FY07.

Domestic Funds net buyers Rs.2160 crs
Provisional figures for the day :

Gross buyers Rs.3145.68 crs

Gross buyers Rs.985.33 crs

Net buyers Rs.2160.35 crs

Hero Honda announces Q3 results

Hero Honda Motors Ltd has announced the following Unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007:

The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 2750.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 2091.80 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Income has increased from Rs 26996.30 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 27951.70 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

Puravankara Projects announces Q3 results

Puravankara Projects Ltd has announced the following Audited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007:

The Company has posted a profit after tax of Rs 565.033 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 223.882 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Revenues has increased from Rs 843.477 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 1505.249 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

The Consolidated results are as follows:

The Group has posted a profit after tax of Rs 631.151 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 284.364 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Revenues has increased from Rs 843.477 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 1505.249 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007

Sanguine Media - Press Release

Sanguine Media Ltd has announced that the Company has initiated a new division "PURPLE TIES", Purple signifies royalty, creativity, Luxury & nobility. PURPLE TIES will reach the "Purple People" directly by tying up with the premium & prestigious Clubs in India.

Phase 1 will be initiated in Chennai and other Southern Metros, PURPLE TIES will redefine entertainment with its creativity and spontaneity. This Tie up will help the brand managers to reach the “Purple people” through dedicated and customized happening events.

In the present marketing scenario, with so much of clutter distracting the potential customer, getting the attention from the target audience today is the key for the brand’s success. Increasingly brands turn to Innovative method to reach the Target Customers, a cost effective and rewarding solution will be to reach the target audience when they are at leisure: this will give them quality time to touch, feel or experience the product. In summary a total product experience.

In Phase 1, with more than 200 Clubs in Southern India having a combined membership of over half a million, PUPRLE TIES will emerge as an extended arm for the brands desiring to reach the Purple People.

The club Industry is growing exponentially: with the increase in the disposable income, newer and exclusive clubs are coming up even in tier 2 & 3 Cities. The present entertainment available to the club is largely restricted to Games and Film Screening.

With National & International Tie up with performing artists, chefs, designers & fitness consultants, PURPLE TIES will bring in the much needed variety in recreation and entertainment calendar of the clubs.

Cabinet likely to consider fuel price hike next week: Deora

On 31 January 2008, Oil Minister Murli Deora informed that the cabinet was likely to consider a fuel price hike next week.

The meeting with other members of the ministerial panel formed by the Indian goverment to look into the fuel pricing issue was inconclusive and no decision has been taken as yet.

Reliance Comm Q3 net up 48%
Reliance Communications today reported a 48.5% increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 1,372.83 crore for the third quarter ended December, 2007, when compared a profit of Rs 924.45 crore posted in the corresponding quarter a year ago.

According to a release issued by the company today, the group's total income for Q3FY08 was up 29.8% at Rs 4,874.20 crore as against Rs 3,755.30 crore in Q3FY07.

Domestic Funds net buyers Rs.2160 crs
Provisional figures for the day :

Gross buyers Rs.3145.68 crs

Gross buyers Rs.985.33 crs

Net buyers Rs.2160.35 crs

Hero Honda announces Q3 results

Hero Honda Motors Ltd has announced the following Unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007:

The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 2750.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 2091.80 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Income has increased from Rs 26996.30 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 27951.70 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

Puravankara Projects announces Q3 results

Puravankara Projects Ltd has announced the following Audited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007:

The Company has posted a profit after tax of Rs 565.033 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 223.882 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Revenues has increased from Rs 843.477 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 1505.249 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

The Consolidated results are as follows:

The Group has posted a profit after tax of Rs 631.151 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 284.364 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Revenues has increased from Rs 843.477 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 1505.249 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007

Escorts announces Q3 results

Escorts Ltd has announced the following Unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007:

The Company has posted a loss after tax of Rs 59.30 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to loss of Rs 30.40 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Income has decreased from Rs 5178.20 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 4319.80 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

RBI keeps all key policy rates intact

--------------as we said before 2 days

RBI has not changed any of the key policy rates. All the rates including the Reverse Repo remain the same. The cash reserve ratio (CRR) has also been left untouched by the RBI.

Domestic Funds net buyers Rs.369 crs

Gross buyers Rs.798.50 crs

Gross sellers Rs.429.90 crs

Net buyers Rs.368.60 crs

Bombay Dyeing announces Q3 results

Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company Ltd has announced the following Unaudited Results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007:

The Company has posted a net loss of Rs 370.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 where as the same was net profit at Rs 72.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Income is Rs 3079.00 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 where as the same was at Rs 1190.20 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006.

Commercial production of PSF, based on PTA as feedstock, commenced from October 01, 2007 and hence the results for the current periods are not comparable with the previous periods. Further, the performance of the PSF division during the current period was adversely impacted by large increase in the price of the raw materials which could not be passed on to the consumers on account of the over supply situation in the PSF market.

HMT announces Q3 results

HMT Ltd has announced the following Unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007:

The Company has posted a net loss of Rs 157.50 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to net loss of Rs 44.90 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Income has decreased from Rs 701.30 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 378.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Mittal, Ambanis among world`s wealthiest CEOs: Forbes

Steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal along with Ambani brothers -- Mukesh and Anil, are among the 10 wealthiest CEOs in the world, according to American magazine Forbes.

Out of the world's 10 wealthiest CEOs, four positions have been grabbed by Indians -- Lakshmi Mittal is ranked at the second place followed by Mukesh Ambani (6th place), Anil Ambani (7th) and Wipro chief Azim Premji (9th).

The list has been topped by Warren Buffet, the Chief Executive of Berkshire Hathaway with a fortune of USD 52 billion.

Arcelor Mittal chief Lakshmi Mittal has a net worth of USD 32 billion, while Mukesh Ambani and Anil Ambani have fortunes worth USD 20.1 billion and USD 18.2 billion, respectively.

Chief of IT bellweather Wipro Azim Premji has a net worth of USD 17.1 billion.

However, these net worth figures are not current and have been taken from a list prepared almost a year back for Indian businessmen and from a September list for those from the US.

Forbes said that the list of wealthiest CEOs was prepared after perusing the ranks of the Forbes 400 list of the richest Americans from September and its annual billionaires' list from last March.

2009 GDP growth target 8.5%: Reddy

RBI Governor Y V Reddy, while addressing the media, today said: "We should aim for 8.5% GDP growth in 2009 also".

Global growth in 2009: "Nobody's bet that it would be higher".

Global dilemma is that growth is likely to moderate, infaltion is likely to be high and financial markets are in turmoil. "We are also facing a complex situation, several trade-offs involved."

"We cannot afford to let our vigil, emphasis on inflation moderation" Reddy said.

Supply side things looking positive, but on demand side continued vigil needed because of liquidity concerns, he added.

RBI aims to keep inflation below 5%: FM

Finance Minister P Chidambaram has endorsed the Reserve Bank of India's stance on the Credit Policy. He said it was RBI's endeavour to keep inflation below 5%. "RBI has reinforced emphasis on price stability

GDP growth 8.5%; inflation target 4-4.5%
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today maintained its growth projection for gross domestic product (GDP) at 8.5% for FY08 - assuming no further escalation in international crude prices and barring domestic or external shocks.

Y V Reddy, Governor, RBI, while presenting the third quarter review of annual statement on monetary policy said: "Real GDP originating in agriculture and allied activities has recorded above-trend growth in the first half of 2007-08 with kharif foodgrains production placed higher than in the preceding year. More information will be necessary to make a full and
realistic assessment of rabi production, including the extent to which reservoir storage will have a mitigating effect on shortfalls in the winter North-East monsoon.

"On the other hand, industrial activity appears to be experiencing some transient and cyclical effects affecting manufacturing performance. With the momentum of growth in the services sector expected to be sustained, drawing from leading indicators, the projection of overall real GDP growth in 2007-08 is maintained at around 8.5% for policy purposes, assuming no further escalation in international crude prices and barring domestic or external shocks."

The central bank said the aim would be to keep headline inflation in the range of 4-4.5%. "In recognition of India's evolving integration with the global economy and societal preferences in this regard, the resolve, going forward, would be to condition expectations in the range of 4.0-4.5% so that an inflation rate of around 3% becomes a medium-term objective
consistent with India's broader integration into the global
economy," the central bank said.

Bottomed out.....
I was waiting for this moment along with my team which has now stepped out with zeal and confidence to imitate hot buy calls.

It is not much depth left in the O I positions and hence the chances of market going down further are completely axed. In my opinion 4910 will be the all time bottom for now. Market will test new top first.

The issue under consideration was the CRR rate cut expectation. In fact, this hope only belied the stock market to 300 points plus and actual disappointment made market to correct by 500 points. This was inevitable because traders off late are not allowed to buy come what may but they are allowed to short. In short term scene they are getting few thousands also in such trades which will be wiped off soon and they will lose their pants once again in selling short.

The key driver is the QIP refund. In fact, stop gap arrangements are being made to buy out shares in anticipation by corporate houses to some extent which is being reflected in improved prices. Actual impact will be seen when the refund is granted. By any stretch of imagination 40 bn USD is too big a figure for Indian market especially when the O I is dwindled to as low as Rs 82000 crs including Rs 18000 crs in FEB.

From 1st FEB 2 things will help market restore confidence one that the refund and 2 that short selling by FII. This will work as a good balancer. In fact, the freezing limits of 5% in B gr too should be removed and short selling should be allowed in large cap stocks which will help stock prices as per market discovery formula which is applicable to A gr stocks. Why should there be a step motherly treatment to B gr stocks….? If buyers has opportunity to buy IFCI at 67% discount in just 2 days why should a B gr buyer should hold the price at 10% lower…..? This is demoralizing and creating more manipulation in the stock prices.

In fact, the root of the problems lies here. Say. market collapsed A gr fell by 50% brokers got the margin call from the exchange which in turn asking investors to deposit DD within few hours. By that time all the B gr stocks are at lower cct and this cct would not open till next 15 days and then how can a investors sell their B gr shares which are generally accumulated through their profits out of A gr trading.

You are squeezed. Even if somebody wants to sell B gr share at 50% lower than the cmp you can’t sell because of 5% limit. The need of hour is that even such limits should be replaced by new limits on the very same day to provide exit to investors which could have really saved the system from collapsing.

In this sense I would still think that Indian capital market has to go very long way before we can say it is fully matured market. The claims made by the system developers are still sketchy.

Any way, market has bottomed out for sure. I would suggest all those who can trust us may go out and buy stocks of your choice. If you can’t spare funds then at least switch your portfolio like a smart fund manager.

Freedom is not an ideal, it is not even a protection, if it means nothing more than the freedom to stagnate.

Monday, January 28, 2008

RBI may keep interest rates unchanged
Reserve Bank of India may keep interest rates unchanged in the monetary policy to be announced on Tuesday.

Inflation concerns and high money supply will remain the primary concern of the central bank, sources close to the development said.

According to the sources, inflation concerns and high money supply will remain the primary concern of RBI for at least a couple of months more. This means the central bank will wait at least till the next policy review in April before adopting a softer stance on rates.

However, they added that the cash reserve ratio (CRR) may be increased 25 basis points to curb liquidity following the rising interest rate differential between the US and India after the 75 basis point cut in the US Federal Reserve rate.

Sources close to the development said there was an internal view within RBI that the time is perhaps ripe for a 25 basis point cut in the repo rate, since the corridor between the repo and reverse repo has been quite high at 175 basis points as against the conventional 100 basis points.

This can be accompanied by a 25 basis point hike in CRR. This, a section within RBI felt, will help tighten liquidity without the cost of issuing market stabilisation bonds and treasury bills. At the same time it would signal a softer stance on interest rate.

With the cut in the US Federal Reserve rate and expectations of another 25-50 basis point reduction in the January 30 Open market committee meeting, this section felt that a repo rate cut is necessary to stem the deluge of foreign exchange inflows due to the interest rate arbitrage.

However, RBI is veering to the view that a status quo is necessary as inflation concerns still remain high.

Besides, Indian economy growth may not be as high as last year; and the forex inflows will be more evenly distributed across all Asian countries. Moreover, if the liquidity management becomes a problem, RBI has all the instruments at its disposal to step in whenever necessary.

There is in fact a liquidity surplus in the system with no substantial increase in credit pick-up and money supply is already ruling much higher at 21-22 per cent above RBI’s forecast of 17-17.5 per cent.

Currently, CRR is maintained at 7.5 per cent after six tranches of hikes since April 2007.

One basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point while CRR is cash reserve ratio which is portion of the deposits mobilised in a fortnight to be kept with RBI as a statutory requirement.

Repo is the rate at which RBI infuses liquidity through purchase of government securities while reverse repo is the process of absorption of liquidity from the system through sale of government papers . These are tools for open market operations.

Tata eyes Deutsche Tele unit
The Tata group plans to buy a stake in a high-tech unit of Germany's Deutsche Telekom which would see thousands of jobs moving to India, according to a report published in a German weekly news magazine 'Focus'.

In a report in its upcoming issue, the news magazine said the Indian group — specialising in high-tech, automobiles and steel — was on the verge of acquiring the systems integration business of Deutsche Telekom unit T-Systems. It said there were only a few final legal issues to resolve. The Deutsche Telekom unit employs about 13,000 IT specialists. The magazine said about half of those jobs would now be sent to India. A Deutsche Telekom spokesman declined to comment.

L&T - Allotment of Shares
Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T) has informed that the Company has allotted 3,43,412 ((Three Lakhs Fourty Three Thousand Four Hundred Twelve) shares on January 28, 2008 to those grantees who had exercised their options under the Company's Employee Stock Ownership / Option Scheme.

The said shares will rank pari-passu with the existing shares of the Company in all respects.

India leaves Davos hale & hearty

'If the US sneezes, India need not catch a cold!' was New Dehi's message to global business and political leaders as they prepared to leave this snow-clad mountain resort after spending five days worrying about a possible recession in the world's largest Economy.

While it is not the first time that India has articulated this theory, Finance Minister P Chidambaram used the World Economic Forum to get across the message that India was fairly insulated from the global financial crisis - which he said was the result of ‘failure of regulators and lack of regulations’.

Although India did not suffer any impact due to the US mortgage crisis, the year ahead could be difficult as there could be indirect implications for the services sector - dependent Economy.

SBI announces Q3 results
State Bank of India (SBI) has announced the following Unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007:

The Bank has posted a net profit of Rs 18086.40 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 10650.60 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Income has increased from Rs 112683.80 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 153640.00 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

The Consolidated results are as follows:

The Group has posted a net profit after minority interest of Rs 23836.60 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 15244.20 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Income has increased from Rs 170451.30 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 243809.90 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

Getting closer....

Yes the panic is not completely over as still more than 900 to 1000 bolts are jammed and investors have to get the funds back. The dust should settle by Thursday the last day of settlement and post which market will start rising in the old fashion once again.

In May 2006, nobody believed that Sensex will ever touch 16K but for sure we were there to console with Lion’s heart and yet another innings we are ready to play and prove that market will touch 38K. In fact, we have strong belief that market will ion new zone by 28th FEB only.

Gain gone, pain will go and chains will be shut in few months. Only those who are sitting on cash are able to invest in this market. The old story will repeat once again. Investors can’t sell stocks in loss neither can buy more in falling markets. As and when the market recovers, investors will start getting head room to exit from existing holdings and will enter new stocks when Sensex goes into new orbit.

For me this is not new because more than actual pain it is human psychology which is working. When Friday market went up traders took positions home for cashing gains whereas today when it is down they start talking about 4400 Nifty once again.

However, a close observation suggest that market ( in normal conditions) would work on ELLIOTT wave pattern which means new bottoms will be formed. If 4400 is broken then there is no guarantee of even 3600 which means 4400 is now ruled out. After making 4900 a consolidation point, 5000 was another trigger. Then it went all the way to 5400 and corrected back to 5100 or around. Who has gained except the driver….? It means even after the driver lost heavily it has kept their head high to keep Nifty trades on.

I think Nifty will kiss 5880 very shortly either before 31st if RBI cuts CRR by 50 basis point or alternatively in FEB where next correction will start. 5500 is the strongest bottom. Logically therefore 5500 crossing will take Nifty straight away to 5880 and then 6600 in not a dream because at 5900 there will not be any pain at all.

Now that those who had lost in May 2006 massacre could not come to market for at least 12 months which will be the case again in Feb 08. In order to see faster recovery one must enter quality stocks in B gr which could give them 100% return which can provide them a new platform. I know for sure my advise will go on deaf ears once again. I had been advising all of you to have only 10% exposure in futures because my philosophy suggested that future trades are only for passion and not earning.

Just imagine….I have been a strong reader of futures as well as stocks which could have lured me to trader in futures but my senses always prevented because I had lost money in 2000 crash to understand this market. Every trader has to pay the price then only he can become mature investor. The real problem on had was disproportionate long positions in futures. I know one small shop owner from Indore lost 4 crs Rs which was never before heard of. I also agree with Surjeet Bhalla who has pointed the defect of the system as a whole.

The O I in futures as of today is just 20 bn USD whereas the margin locked with exchanges could be at least 10 bn USD and therefore no broker is going go bankrupt on record though time will expose many frauds of misuse of money and margins by broking community as a whole which were held at ransom for squaring off the positions for want of margins and they had really no option and time to see which customers account they are knocking off.

Ideally, in this case NSE ought to have given some time to brokers to deposit margin cheque and/or square off positions on their own. Whenever exchange does this job you will remember DEONAR’s slaughter house.

From all these investors must take at one lesson…let this be a game of big players because end of day all the policies are pro BIG investors and not small ones and hence small investors must either enter stocks of their own research in B gr or invest their money in MF.

Me and my team will not leave any stone unturned to see your smiles back but please give time to do that and try to follow the advise more sincerely than before.

The right moment for starting on your next job is not tomorrow or next week; it is instanter, or in the American idiom, 'right now.

Chakr De...la.. KABIR KHAN
ANIL KUMBLE and his army of 4 old cammandos’ showed that age is no barrier for cricket. Likewise there needs to be few commandos’ come in the public domain to bail out Indian investors who have stuck in Tsunami created by brokers and exchanges. If ANIL KUMBLE is the self made KABIR KHAN we need somebody to become a market’s KABIR KHAN to make CHAKRA DE instead of cheque de. The men in blue are always heavy on the men in Eastman colors and we need to prove the same in the capital market too.

Majority of the brokers withheld the payments of retail investors ever after selling their portfolio for no fault of these investors. Well, these are the reasons Indian brokers are always called and known as brokers. It is well said that broker can’t lose money whether they are stocks brokers or commodity or for that matter any kind of flesh.

The brokers have lost heavily only on their proprietary accounts. History is already there where in 2001 few brokers manipulated badla money and gone bankrupt. This time too brokers used clients margin money and few brokers if goes bankrupt I will not be surprised.

In fact, this is the reason we have held back our opinion of V shape recovery. Yesterday market had seen 1000 points correction because one of FUND wanted to sell 1.8 mn shares of RIL which he tried place till 2 pm failing which he pressed the panic button. Who knows this will happen today, Monday or even Tuesday. The bottom line is clear, the brokers who are still holding some positions in JAN on behalf of very very strong clients too warned them to square off the same by 31st JAN and shown no interest to rollover.

This may lead to further aggravation till 31st JAN except for the fact that FM can come to the rescue of the market by asking RBI to cut CRR by 50 basis point on 30th JAN which can provide a handsome respite.

At the same time I would now bet on SENSEX 38000 in 2009 and the reason is very simple. We are 5000 Sensex now and the filters used at 8900 were 20 cents diamond screening whereas this time it is 1 cent screening. Therefore the rise will be much faster at larger base of 17500. From 9000 to 21000 was a rise of 150% whereas from 17500 to 38000 it will be only 117% and with no pressure from any quarters. I had already expressed that DOW is forming bottom and 16K can come in 3 months which now been confirmed by M S by setting 6 months target of 18K.

I have only one message for those who have lost their last pant due to F & O ….whatever you are left with try to invest in quality stocks of I DEVELOP recommendation because there are no FII’s to create more damage to these stocks. Once the sanity returns these stocks will rise at least 100% in next 3 months to give some solace.

As regards market, the OI is now at 80 K and FEB OI is still at 11K which means even if the next vallan starts with 40K OI to come to back 100 K levels a rally of 5000 points is must which will be reflected till FEB 2nd week and come what it may even the worst budget can’t do any more damage to market.

March month eventually know as p and l adjustment month which generally sees huge crash to clean up the books of big wigs which is not required now as the books are cleaned up beyond imagination and I think traders having paid huge STT are now scouting for profits in the market as per sources in this line.

This all suggest that SENSEX will cross 21K well before Budget and there are chances that market may climb to 25K in March if Budget is extra ordinary the chances of which can’t be ruled out due to enormous loss to the exchequer also.

FAITH IS A GIFT FROM GOD THAT HE MAKES AVAIALABLE TO ANYONE WHO WANTS IT. ALL YOU HAVE TO DO TO GET IT IS ASK HIM…….

Friday, January 25, 2008

Sensex – Nifty Targets

The only concern on hand is that whether this is the beginning of the bear phases or unfolding of a new bull market….?

The Hon’ble PM and FM and reiterated that there is no change in economic fundaments and the current crisis is due to global clues clearly suggest that this is certainly not a beginning of a bear market. It is for sure an unfolding of a WAVE V of the Bull market with a new SENSEX target of 38000 by Dec 2009.

The views expressed is just a thought process of iDevelop and has no conclusion of a bear scam or evidence of such a scam. Logically you may find confirmation only when Nifty crosses 5500 in next 3-5 days and 6600 in next 2 months.

Every deep correction has unfolded a new BULL market and this time it is not an exception. This is because the commodity Bull run will last till 2012 and so the equity bull run and if you look at it from other angle FII may sell 3 to 5 bn USD stocks but they are not here to make complete exit. Eventually they want to raise they share in Sensex market capitalisation to close to 60% no matter if they have to invest another 100 bn USD for that.

Market may test lower levels before 31st JAN in volatile moves and investors will do well by not going aggressively long in F & O whereas for cash stocks this is the best time because you can’t make the top and you can’t make the bottom.

Investors strategy....

Thursday, January 25, 2008

What stocks investors can accumulate …?

Following stocks if bought in these valuations can mitigate your losses whatever you have made in this crash. We expect the volatility will definitely end by 31st Jan 2008 the last day of vallan and hence 6 more days of PAIN can’t be ignored. This is the precise reason we are not increasing and initiating buy calls.

BOMBAY DYING / IDBI / RIL / REL CAPITAL / REL INFRA / RPL / PUNJ LLYODD / PENINSULA LAND

HINDUSTAN OIL / IFCI / BEML / MINDA / AVON ORGANIC / SS DUNCAN / INDIA FOIL / KIRLOSKAR BROTHERS / KIRLOSKAR OIL / EVINIX / HEG / JEYSWAL NECO /SANDUR

ACCURATE TRANSFORMER / PANYAM CEMENT / VISHNU CHEMICALS / SIRPUR PAPER

Valuations have corrected but at the same time it is giving you a GOD gifted opportunity to swap and trim your portfolio in the aforesaid stocks. All these stocks are multi baggers and 10 baggers.

We know that investors do not have funds to leverage more buying and even if have some do not want to bring it to capital market.

The real selling in B gr will start at every rise as and when the prices start resurfacing in FEB and investors will take sigh of relief saying AH my rate has come and after 3 months would repeat it once again my selling was at the bottom and my luck is BAD…..

Become a self portfolio manager. Book losses in stocks where you have bought higher and save tax and enter the aforesaid stocks where you are sure to make gains which will not only compensate your losses but would take your MERRY LAND.

End of the day we can only advise you and final call is yours….

Results

IG Petrochemicals - updates Thursday, January 24, 2008
IG Petrochemicals Ltd has informed that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on January 23, 2008, inter alia, has considered and approved the following:

- The issue of share warrants has been deferred due to pendency of certain regulatory approvals.

Nandan Exim net profit rises 18.99%

Thursday, January 24, 2008
Net profit of Nandan Exim rose 18.99% to Rs 4.95 crore in the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 4.16 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2006. Sales rose 61.48% to Rs 98.50 crore in the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 61.00 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2006.

GTL announces Q3 results Thursday, January 24, 2008
GTL Ltd has announced the following Audited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007:

The Company has posted a net profit after extraordinary items of Rs 337.20 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 98.50 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Income has increased from Rs 2139.40 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 3652.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

The Audited Consolidated results are as follows:

The Group has posted a net profit after extraordinary items of Rs 406.70 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 208.00 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Income has increased from Rs 2927.00 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 4546.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

The figures for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 are Unaudited.

Reliance Capital announces Q3 results Thursday, January 24, 2008
Reliance Capital Ltd has announced the following Unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007:

The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 1352.40 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 725.70 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Income has increased from Rs 1212.40 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 3754.60 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

Nitco Tiles net profit rises 43.48% in the December 2007 quarter Thursday, January 24, 2008
Net profit of Nitco Tiles rose 43.48% to Rs 13.20 crore in the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 9.20 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2006. Sales rose 24.37% to Rs 144.17 crore in the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 115.92 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2006.

Nagarjuna Fertilizers & Chemicals net profit rises 35.06% Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Net profit of Nagarjuna Fertilizers & Chemicals rose 35.06% to Rs 5.47 crore in the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 4.05 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2006. Sales rose 28.02% to Rs 624.20 crore in the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 487.57 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2006.

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