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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

SBI Central Board approves Rights Issue Monday
State Bank of India (SBI) has informed that the Central Board of the Bank at its meeting held on January 14, 2008, has decided as under:

Ratio for Rights Issue: one share for every five shares held by the eligible shareholders as on the Record Date;

Price for Rights Issue: Rs 1590 per share (i.e. face value of Rs 10 each and a premium of Rs 1580 per share)

Decision on fuel prices hike on Jan 17: Deora Monday
A decision on fuel price hike will be taken on January 17, Union Petroleum Minister Murli Deora said on Monday.

"On January 17, Group of Ministers (GoM) is meeting under the chairmanship of Pranab Mukherjee in Delhi and that time it will be decided what will happen to the prices," he said.

"Nobody can say now whether the prices will be increased or not," Deora told reporters after inaugurating an international conference of petroleum geo-physicists here.

Further weakness not ruled out

A real bad day for the capital market not for the global weakness but for the narrow thinking of traders and investors. Across the board investors made exit as if the market has reversed for ever on the pretext that REL power issue was subscribed. However to best of my knowledge, the rally will catch momentum very shortly as the market is in oversold position. Unconfirmed sources say that M A too has subscribed to REL power issue.

The fact that Govt has announced to raise 16000 crs for SBI rights issue and Rs 40000 for BSNL IPO augurs well for the capital market. Just think what the PM of India was saying about infra needs a couple of years back…? 150 bn was height whereas now he is talking about 700 bn USD and I am sure in next 2 years the figure will rise to 5000 bn USD. The leaps and bounds in inflow will take India towards a developed nation in next 10 years and till that time we need think about exit.

Look at your past and see what have you made out of it…..? Only few merchant bankers have earned 1000 of crores rupees in India by doing their game whereas the real power its genius AAM ADMI has not made anything for them…? Who should be blamed…us Govt …..the system or yourself….? I think the blame lies on you. You know the destination yet you throw yourself in towel or alternatively trader for just 5% spread.

Nation makes us and we make the nation likewise market makes us but more than that we make market. If you follow one GURU for deciding the market trend you will be better off.

We are bullish on the market and will remain bullish because our call is not based on REL power issue or global weakness. The later will remain for another 1 quarter and hence the weakness in global market is understood but for India we have just completed 3 bn USD IPO and another 15 bn is set to be raised by Govt alone and 15 bn by private players. In short 35 bn USD will be raised which will be introduced in the system investment cycle. This will spark the GDP growth beyond 10% easily. In view of the same we can’t expect the capacity expansion will top at these levels.

Market may open further weaker tomorrow as it has failed to hold on and another bout of margin trigger will occur tomorrow morning. However the targets are intact and lion hearted traders and investors may stick on whereas weak hands please exit as early as possible. All our calls in S C sections are firm and we would see that all the calls are matured in profit without breaking our tradition.

Punj Lloydd, IDBI, IFCI, Bombay Dyeing, Peninsula, BEML, Hindustan Oil will remain our top picks. Few of the stories we have exploded with futuristic triggers rest we leave it for the market to explore and explore. We can justify but we will wait for appropriate time to explode and also appropriate forum.

Explore, and explore. Be neither chided nor flattered out of your position of perpetual inquiry. Neither dogmatize, nor accept another's dogmatism.

Our observation on IDBI…

IDBI made very bold announcement by intention to expand the branches across the globe. Its insurance valuation is catching momentum. Its recovery of bad assets is on course.

All well, what is technical suggest….

When we started we IDBI at Rs 60 to 70 levels it was trading in 10 to 15 crs F & O volume. Slowly the volume have dwindled to as low as 1 cr shares and yet the stock is holding very close to its all time high. This signifies that IDBI counter has become dry and can burst any moment and this time it will out of reach all and none.

From reliable sources we understand that investors close political parties are accumulating IDBI and IFCI which clearly suggest and unexpected news flow in these 2 counters. Presumably Govt may announce a banking license in FICI whereas IDBI could be la SBI story and a rights issue is not discarded.

Another pattern which we have seen is that IDBI has made higher bottoms in every vallan and jumped to new high in every vallan. In Dec it had made bottom of 148 whereas in JAN it has made bottom of 159 which clearly indicate that the accumulation process is either completed and/or about to be completed.

Based on our observation we maintain a clear BUY in IDBI with a six month target of Rs 400 and 12 months of Rs 7

SBI updates...

State Bank of India (SBI) has informed that the Central Board of the Bank at its meeting held on January 14, 2008, has decided as under:

1. To increase the Issued Capital of Bank from Rs 526.30 crore to Rs 650.00 crore, in terms of Sec. 5 (2) of the SBI Act;

2. To raise an aggregate amount of Rs 16,736.31 crore (including premium) by way of Rights Issue offer to Government of India and to other eligible existing shareholders including GDR holders;

3. To issue shares to employees of the Bank under Employees Stock Purchase Scheme;

4. Ratio for Rights Issue: one share for every five shares held by the eligible shareholders as on the Record Date;

5. Price for Rights Issue: Rs 1590 per share (i.e. face value of Rs 10 each and a premium of Rs 1580 per share).

(Since the rights price is at Rs.1590 and current price is Rs.2500 its mini bonus...price will shoot up)

Peninsula update...

Peninsula Land is going the way Patel Engg has traveled in last 30 months. We had picked up Patel Engg at Rs 165 a Rs 10 paid up share even before the placement had happened to FII. Since then Patel has become a real multi bagger story.

Peninsula is at the same stage. Co has already sold Rs1000 crs FSI to ALOK in DAWN mills. It has decided to sell 15% stake to LEHMAN Brothers. And sources claim that co selling another part and parcel of FSI to a leading corporate for Rs 1200 crs.

All this will make Peninsula Balance Sheet very healthy and we think from hereon this stock will never look back and will rise to Rs 1000 in next 30 months simply because of the huge cash flows which is coming in the company.

We suggest long term investors to catch this young infra baby where action is set to start.

Videocon to enter lifestyle, grocery cash & carry retail

Consumer durables heavyweight Videocon Industries is venturing into the grocery and lifestyle retailing space through cash & carry format across the country. The company has hired several senior expats with global retail experience, headed by an Italian Marco Padella who has worked with Carrefour and Metro AG in Italy for the cash & carry formats.

Talks are on to hire the former Asia-Pacific head of Electrolux Peter Birch to head Videocon’s entire retail businesses. Some of the names being considered for the format are Bold, Next Cash & Carry and Videocon Cash & Carry.

The company may also tie up with a global player in this space, sources close to the development said. All the retail businesses like Next Retail, Planet M and the cash & carry format currently housed under Videocon Industries will also be spun off as Videocon Retail some time in mid-08.

“The growth in consumer demand and the growing share of the organised players in retail is compelling. We see the retail business, which is currently doubling for us each year, as a great value proposition,” said Venugopal Dhoot, CMD, Videocon Industries.

KSA Technopak, Ernst & Young and Price WaterhouseCoopers have been roped in to advise the company on the retail initiative. The company has kicked off the venture by acquiring land in Ahmedabad, Calcutta, Bangalore, Aurangabad and Ahmednagar.

RPL refinery achieves 82% overall progress in just 2 yrs

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Reliance Petroleum Limited (“RPL”) has successfully completed the second year of implementation of its complex refinery, coming up in a Special Economic Zone at Jamnagar. RPL has achieved 82% overall progress in just 24 months since commencement of the Project. Based on the progress so far, RPL is on course to complete the project ahead of its initial schedule of December 2008.

During the quarter, project implementation gained further momentum and led to achievement

of several significant milestones;

• Engineering activities are nearing completion.

• Overall procurement progress exceeded 97%.

• More than 75% of equipments and tagged items already received at site.

• Deliveries of over dimensional cargos (ODC) and super ODCs are nearing completion.

• Over 40% of equipments have been erected; Project skyline changed dramatically.

• Overall construction progress crossed the 60% mark for the complex.

• Structural and pipe fabrication activities progressing at an accelerated pace.

• Sufficient site infrastructure mobilised to sustain equipment installation and fabrication

activities on the fast track.

During the quarter, the project engineering activities were completed with all drawings for concreting, structural steel, underground piping as well as electrical and instrumentation released for construction. Residual engineering activities to support ongoing construction are continuing. Successful completion of this massive engineering effort in less than two years has set a new global record in the refining sector. It also reflects the success of a team effort that involved over 7,500 engineers, working from several interconnected locations across the world.

Tata Motors to create independent production hubs

After the Nano, it’s time for more innovative engineering at Tata Motors. The country’s largest vehicle maker, which stirred the auto world last week with its cheapest car ever, is now planning to reorganise its manufacturing operation through different hubs, a clear departure from the established manufacturing model at the 75-year-old company.

The Mumbai-based truck and car maker plans to come out with independent production hubs that will focus on making different vehicles at different locations, instead of the earlier integrated facility where it had the commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle production lines in the same unit.

It is in line with the philosophy that Tata Motors plans to shift its Ace unit from Pune to Rudrapur in Uttarakhand while new generational vehicles, including SUVs (sports utility vehicles), would be made in Pune. The shifting will free up over 5 acres in Pune that will be used to ramp up production of Sumo, Safari and Indica, sources said.

However, a Tata Motors spokesperson, when contacted, said the company adopts a flexible approach at all its units while concentrating on certain product categories in specific plants. The Dharwad unit in Karnataka makes buses
while the Lucknow facility is used for trucks and buses.

Reliance Power Record IPO Gets $27.8 Billion of Bids



Billionaire Chairman Anil Ambani's Reliance Power Ltd. attracted $27.8 billion of bids on the first day of its initial public offering, starting a record year for share sales by Indian generating companies.

The unit of Reliance Energy Ltd., India's second-largest electricity producer by market value, got orders for 10.64 times the stock on offer, according to the National Stock Exchange's Web site. The Mumbai-based company is seeking as much as 117 billion rupees ($3 billion).

Reliance Energy quadrupled in value last year, the best- performing stock on India's benchmark index, as the government plans to invest $200 billion in generation and distribution in seven years to sustain record economic growth. Reliance Power will lead $7 billion of share sales this year in the sector.

RDB Industries Q3 net profit up 27%

RDB Industries Ltd’s October-December net profit rose 27.08 per cent to Rs 92.48 crore compared with Rs 77.85 crore in the same quarter of the previous year.

This, despite 45.20 per cent fall in net sales to Rs 4.28 crore from Rs 7.81 crore in the same quarter year earlier.

Total income for the quarter at Rs 8.17 crore (previous year Rs 8.82 crore) got a boost from a near 300 per cent jump in other income to Rs 3.89 crore from Rs 1.01 crore year earlier.

RIL to set up oil rig firm



Having made a number of oil and gas finds, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) now wants to set up its own oil services company or partner with a global rig major and for the first time the company has gone on record to confirm this move.

“It is better to set up our own company. It is certainly an option and we are seriously evaluating it. There is so much captive work that we have to do that it is best we are in the business on our own,” said PMS Prasad, President and CEO, Petroleum Business, RIL.

“It is not just the shortage of these rigs but also the rising costs of hiring the services that has prompted the move. Earlier the cost to hire the rig was $750,000 per day but now it could be close to $1 million,” said Prasad.

Just multiply that number and Reliance will be spending billions and billions of dollars to contract these rigs, which is why the company feels it makes perfect business sense to enter the space on its own and right now it is keeping all its options open.

“It could be a joint venture, partnership or a long term agreement. We are exploring all the options,” he added.

With crude oil boiling at $100, the oil services may become a very lucrative business for the company at a time when Reliance is sitting on a large part of India's unexplored acreage.

The company’s aggressive plan to hunt for more oil and gas beneath the deep waters is taking a hit and for now this new move may help it tide over the growing worry from transocean's deepwater frontier rig in the D6 block of the Krishna Godavari basin.

Devil scriptures...

Yesterday a leading broking house HDFC had stated that the Reliance Power opening of Rs.900 is just not justified and it seems as if investors were taking cues from these statements. The investors had been taking the IPO financing to subscribe to RPL issue which was reversed. This meant that the markets had to hive off the gains.

Once again the same old story is unfolding like one of DLF were every one believed that DLF would not live up to its expectation and Cni was the only one who had said that DLF would cross 1200 and it has already done so. Similarly we believe that RPL would open firm and would cross 1500 and these broking houses would than issue buy report on RPL at 1500.

Markets have shown great resilience even though all the markets were in red and hiving off gains and falling like anything our market stood up although the recovery came late but it did come.

Markets opened weak today as per our call on global cues and on speculation that the US financial sector might announce further losses. It has to be understood that the US accounting standards are different from Indian accounting standards. This means that the entire losses have been written off in the same quarter and the next quarter won’t take that much hit.

Moreover the Fed would now be forced to cut the interest rates by 50bps and this should spark further momentum. We are bullish and maintain our view and our nifty target of 6600.

"When the Devil quotes Scriptures, it's not, really, to deceive, but simply that the masses are so ignorant of theology that somebody has to teach them the elementary texts before he can seduce them."

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