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Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Titanic but not an end....

I am aware of the unprecedented carnage which was never thought by any body on the earth. Correction can be predicted not earthquakes. The current crisis in not even earthquake but is a planted VOLCANO. I am using the words planted volcano because volcano can’t be planted but this was the case here.

To the best of my knowledge FII have not sold more than Rs 12000 crs which is matched by 50% domestic buying. In fact, today entire New Delhi was concerned and PM and FM too had to start rescue operations.

The correction was due for 21 st Jan which was hinted by me at least 3 weeks before but the spot was picked on 15 th to coincide with the RELP issue. Since then history has repeated. RPL issue has seen crash of 4000 points and now RELP issue has seen crash of 6000 points but in both the crashes R factor is involved.

A spate of 9 lac crs came in RELP which has seen lot of margin transfer taking place and this fact master minded by some BEAR gr to create havoc in the system which needs a special investigation from market watch dog as well as FINMIN. Every time the watch investigate penny stock drivers and screw them as if they are the goats and leave the major mayhem creators intact.

Anyway, I am here not to do post mortem. Because this can be done by anybody and media is competent to do that.

My job has now become tougher to sail you through the remainders from the sank TITANIC.

I AM BOLDLY ANNOUNCING THAT MARKET WILL RECOVER VERY SOON TO 5400 NIFTY LEVELS BUT FOR GOD’S SAKE AVOID INTRA DAY TRADING AND STOP TRYING TO RECOVER THE LOSSES FROM THE MARKET. Though market has formed bottom, the huge losses are still hovering in the minds of the traders and the shock will not go away so easily.

All delivery holders must hold their holding as it is though we understand the immediate concern of valuation. The problem lies only for F & O traders and mark my words even if market recovers very fast the selling too will come at higher levels because we are in the list of opportunist traders.

Today more than Rs 9000 crs were pumped in by domestic institutions to save the sagging market and some short covering helped to recover some grounds the fact remains that majority of the cash rich investors too could not buy even at 2200 points down due to the fact that brokers terminals were locked for margins.

I would suggest all investors who can still go out and do bottom fishing must enter the water. Those who can’t must wait and watch. Those who are trying mitigating losses should try to sell at every rise i e around 5300 and 5400 in short run. The reason is that those who have invested at 4700 levels will defiantly come for profit booking and this will create huge volatility even when the feel good factor starts returning.

Generally I am always confident that market will take V shape recovery in time bound period but this time it is really unprecedented which is seen from Rs 28000 crs unwinding OI on Monday alone. This has broken the back of the system which can be only an attempt on the entire system. I still maintain my target of 6990 Nifty but the time period has now changed to June 2008 because the kind of shake out will take at least 30 days to see the system is back to normal.

With this one more important structural change has happened is that even the worst budget is now factored in the price. Most of the analysts will start their SAGA on wire media that now 6000 is history and so on like what had happened at 8900. At this juncture I leave to you whether you want to repose faith in us or go by public opinions.

All those who still prefer to stick to our views, I can still guarantee them to take out from the mayhem provided nothing nonsense is done. If broker has sold you out for you’re over commitment then I can’t do anything. As and when market recovers will start you getting out of one after another the way we did in June 2006. But for sure stop trading for next 3 to 4 weeks.

At the end of this session I would just say that yes it was horrible TITANIC sight where millions and millions were stuck and nobody was there to offer even solace but for sure the world is not ending here. After every dark night there is a bright SUN.

Destiny can’t be changed. One can snatch your food not destiny. Have faith.

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