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Wednesday, February 3, 2010

'GDP data by May to give true idea for stimulus withdrawa

Economic growth numbers for the current fiscal, to be released by May, will provide actual picture to the government to decide if stimulus packages could be rolled back, chief statistician Pronab Sen said today.

However, strong industrial growth numbers do indicate that the government may start thinking of withdrawing these measures, Sen told reporters here.

Industry growth has started picking up in recent months fueling suggestion from RBI and other analysts for partial roll back of stimulus measures taken to ward off the impact of global economic slowdown last year.

Sen, the Secretary, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, said industrial growth figures give supply side picture and does not tell whether demand is actually there to take that supply or only inventories are building.

The GDP data provide demand side figures also, Sen said, adding it is up to Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee to take a call in the upcoing Budget on stimulus measures, depending on industrial growth numbers or economic growth figures.

"It is up to the Finance Minister to either play safe (in the Budget) and wait for actual economic figures to come out or play gamble and take a decision depending on industrial growth numbers," Sen said.

Industrial growth for November stood at 11.7 per cent against just 2.5 per cent a year back. For the first eight months, industrial production grew by 7.6 per cent against 4.1 per cent a year ago

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