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Friday, March 12, 2010

Feb wholesale inflation seen at 9.62 pct

India's wholesale price index probably rose 9.62 percent in February from a year earlier. Forecast from 21 economists ranged from +9.01 percent to +10.11 percent. The index rose 8.56 percent in January from a year earlier.

FACTORS TO WATCH: Possible upward revisions to the monthly food price index and the cost-driven inflationary trend in manufacturing prices. If the data suggest that food prices are not cooling off as expected, then the fuel price increase that took effect late last month could push headline WPI inflation sharply higher in the months ahead.

MARKET IMPACT: A faster rise in prices could prompt investors to position for a larger increase in policy rates by the central bank at its April review.

The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to raise both its benchmark lending and borrowing rates by at least 25 bps each to 5.00 percent and 3.50 percent respectively.

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