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Thursday, February 14, 2008

Match is wide open....

Market recovered smartly to cross its 200 DMA like a splash in pan. Some more recovery may be on the cards. However huge volatility will persist till the time it crosses 5300 and 5550 levels on upside and lower levels could be 4770 and 4400. Keep these bands in mind to be aware of margins. It should be clearly understood that the pain has not gone yet as market is yet to come out of the unprecedented crash which is comparable to May 06. In May 06 it corrected 31% from the top and this time too the correction works to 31% at 4400 the JAN 22nd bottom. It took 3 months to come out of the shock of May 06 therefore this time too at least 3 months will be required to see everybody coming out of this shock. Only these 3 months will explain you how much shock is absorbed and whether you are back to business.

One thing one must understand very clearly. Every crash has taken million wickets, brokers lost million clients, market lost million investors yet market carried on with new set of investors, traders and same brokers have another million set of clients and the show goes on. Those who want to seriously seek genuine help from I DEVELOP team; they may help them on case to case basis at their own discretion to come out of this trauma.

We have initiated 5 buy calls today for long term period. Those who are still left with some funds may go for it if they deem fit it. Some may even switch from tech and financial sector stocks to rock solid manufacturing stocks.

Some funds have started showing interest in India from today as value buy. The name of funds and broking houses which are executing buy orders will not be revealed in this forum.

At present we just want to abstain from commenting the exact market behaviour which could be even construed as our failure as well as confusion which we do not mind accepting at the moment. All big guns have stuck losses in the range of Rs 130 crs to 650 crs though they are more professionals and better equipped than us on any given day and if they could not save their investors from mitigating huge losses then how can you expect anybody else to do the same. Only 1 out of thousand can judge his own performance in relative terms instead of absolute terms when it comes to comparing his various classes of assets.

Market is wide open on either side and all willing participants can take their own calls on either side. We as a house have stuck with our philosophy to invest at every dip and increased our exposure substantially (3 times than our normal exposure) and ready to increase further at every dip as and when we find value.

I know it could also be felt that in May 06 I was the only person to predict market recovery with timings and Sensex did salute to us. It could be also construed that if I am bearish market may go down further and lot of messages we are getting as to the expected lower levels. I can’t help you from deriving what ever conclusions you want to draw as the freedom is given to you. I have expressed so far market views in last 3 days and made you aware about the actual position. I would be expressing my views only when required and when it really matters.

Self-esteem and self-contempt have specific odors; they can be smelled.

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