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Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Formula of success....

One more dull day for the capital market though Nifty showed some glimpse of sharp recovery on short covering. Any way most of the players have lost hope in A gr as they are now expecting market to go as low as 12000 on various pretexts. OIL, inflation, FII selling, Karnataka loss of ruling party and absolute lack of buying interest is making Sensex under check.

Yes, it is true that out of 100 trades 90 in favour of short sell and even technical calls have lost its lethal power and started giving intra day buy calls 1% gain or so. Instead we stick to our focus of not trading in A gr shares.

Meanwhile see B gr are giving good returns. Stocks correct for shorter time but the conviction level gives a chance to enter at lower level. Conviction is must to enter handsome amount of profit. When market was in full flow and FII were buying we were not hesitant to look at Swan Mills even at Rs 150 per share. The same stock is now available at Rs 53 even below the rate where major drive had entered and therefore you can merry such stock which will give at least 200% return.

G E is selling consumer finance biz worldwide. It sold its unit in Australia. It is focusing on banking biz. Sources says that G E is trying to take over a bank in India. The change is structure could mean huge upside in the stock. Have a close look at this MNC which is available at throw price. If this kind of investment can give us 15 to 20% return in a week why should we have a look at F & O stocks at all…..?

At the same time we continue to recommend our stocks in S C section though the period is getting delayed and delayed. It is very easy to close all the calls at one go saying loss booked but we will never do it because we are confident to sail you through. Yes, it will take time and those who have no patience may decide their course of action. We too are fully aware of all negative factors such as cruel crude, thorny inflation, uncertain political flux, and never thought of monsoon ahead of its actual coming. We know the consequences too.

But there are certain issues. One BJP won in Karnataka which means ruling party is shaken badly and prepared for 5 years term. Therefore election can be only in 2009. Enough time to control inflation. Yet I want to sound a strong warning is that we may touch 10% inflation as the growth is never stopping. With rise in inflation to 10% the GDP too will shoot up to 9% and I think we will have accept that scenario very soon.

It is also true that Govt will not digest this and try control inflation even at the cost of monetary measures. This may lead to political loss to ruling party and BJP may do a clean sweep in the next elections. Either way for market it will be a very good sign and market will find its rhythm back.

But before that the game will be done as usual. In 06 crash investors were stuck with B 2 stocks which took really long time to recover whereas in 08 crash they are stuck with A gr stocks. Even promoters are not willing to buy back now or may have exhausted their limits and hence the prices will not move up unless the blocks are closed once again like one you have seen in idea. Operators still have lot of liquidity and at every fall they are digesting the flow like never ending appetite. This is the precise reason even after steep FII selling of Rs 1400 crs on one single day market is not crashed. It is just down by little percentage.

In fact, we at I Develop knew about this scenario and therefore were advising traders to stay away from F & O all along. Even today though we have buy calls in S C Section we are advocating buy in B gr shares which are real value buys and giving good amount of profits.

Success will never lower its standard to accommodate us. We have to raise our standard to achieve it. Even nature provides food to every bird but definitely not in its nest.

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