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Monday, December 15, 2008

India’s Rupee Gains a Second Week as Funds Return to Buy Stocks

India’s rupee rose a second week as overseas funds returned to buy stocks on optimism interest-rate cuts will help protect the economy from the global slump.

The currency touched a one-month high this week after the government unveiled a $4 billion stimulus package in addition to the three rate cuts by the central bank starting Oct. 20. The Reserve Bank of India signaled it may lower its inflation target after a report yesterday showed gains in wholesale prices were the smallest in seven months. Global funds were net buyers of equities for a fifth day, the longest stretch in eight months.

“There’s more optimism on India than many other nations reeling under fears of global recession as policy makers here have shown to be reasonably pro-active,” said K.V. Mallik, treasurer at state-owned UCO Bank in Kolkata. “That is encouraging inflows and helping the rupee.”

The currency rose 2.1 percent this week to 48.56 per dollar at the 5 p.m. close in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rupee is the third-best performer this month among the 10 most-active currencies in Asia excluding the yen.

International investors bought $403.8 million more Indian shares than they sold this month through Dec. 10, according to data from the Securities & Exchange Board of India. The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index completed its best week since the seven-day period ended Oct. 31.

A slump in crude oil prices from their July record and a cut in local fuel prices have also added to speculation the central bank will reduce borrowing costs further.

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Economic Event Calendar

GMT+5:30 Event Vol. Actual Consensus Previous
Wednesday, Apr 09
22:30 10-Year Note Auction 1 4.435% 4.310%
23:30 FOMC Minutes 3
Thursday, Apr 10
02:20 Fed's Hammack speech 2
03:00 Fed's Kashkari speech 2
04:31 RICS Housing Price Balance 1 2% 8% 11%
15:30 RBA Governor Bullock speech 3
18:00 Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average 1 223K
18:00 Initial Jobless Claims 2 223K 219K
18:00 Continuing Jobless Claims 1 1.880M 1.903M
18:00 Building Permits (MoM) 1 -0.8% -3.2%
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