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Thursday, February 2, 2012

2012 to be volatile, blame it on planetary positions

The year 2011 was a volatile year for commodities with gold, silver, rubber, Pepper and several others witnessing wild swings hurting traders and investors apart from eroding market credibility. The MF global bankruptcy and huge losses it created for investors is still fresh in our minds.

But 2012 may not be much different according to Mr Mahendra Sharma (www. who predicts huge volatility for commodity market as planets are giving clear indications in this regard.  I have interviewed Mahendra Sharma before and he was kind enough to send me a copy of his latest book, “2012 Financial Predictions”.

The indications of volatility in Indian commodity futures market is already visible with guar gum, guar seed, pepper futures already creating panic  investors, exchanges and market regulator.  (But Mahendra Sharma’s book is not focused on Indian commodities as such but the global market and hence I couldn’t find any reference here.)
“As per planetary movement I see soft commodities performing well compared to grains. Metals and oil will move rapidly on both sides,” Mahendra  Sharma writes.  His forecasts are based on astrology which he learned from his maternal grandfather. He says his predictions are based on ‘Wave of Nature’ theory according to which planetary movements determine the negative and positive waves  in turn affecting the profitability of investors.

He has given a positive outlook on precious metals with Gold likely to hit $2000 mark sometime in the first half of 2012. In the energy sector, he predicts Crude Oil will not surpass all time high of $146 and that Natural Gas will outperform oil.  For those who were caught in a bearish base metals market for the whole of 2011, Mahendra Sharma gives some hope:  the complex will trade positive and advises investors to start building long positions.

Among agri-commodities, Mahendra Sharma is bullish on Corn and has a mixed view on soybeans and predicts that by 2014-2015, grain prices can shoot up on natural disasters and calamities. He expects soft commodities such as coffee, cocoa, orange futures, Cotton and sugar.

Giving an outlook or forecast  on anything is not easy an easy job, especially so when it involves financial markets.  The credibility of the forecaster can nosedive if predictions go way off the mark as has happened to Mr Arjun Murti of Goldman Sachs who predicted in 2008 that crude oil prices may rocket to $200. He hasn’t made any major predictions ever since.

Mahendra Sharma’s book is intended at investors in stock, currency and commodities  and gives predictions for the whole year but doesn’t describe the astrological phenomena in detail that could be affecting market trends.  In some instances he falls short of giving any price targets as in gold. 

Investors making use of the book may well co-relate it with fundamental, technical  analysis for a sound investment strategy.

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