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Monday, May 26, 2008

Psychology of the WHO..?

One more drive on front foot by bears but for me it was not a big deal. Market did not break 5000, which was more than sufficient. In fact most of the stocks were holding on except for the attack on banking stocks. Right now since the focus of market is on mid cap nobody is much bothered about the valuations in A gr for the time being. Instead of blocking margins the same money is giving 100% returns in B gr.

Just see the volumes in Duncan Industries and Jeyswal Neco. These are testimony of the operator’s interest. Tea was on fire as the supply is falling in comparison to demand. Same thing is likely to happen with Sugar. Off late oil companies too have started saying they will stop selling petrol and sell only branded products. RIL has started converting oil depots to gas depots. Slowly the stage has come where country is shifting to gas and as per my dream by 2011 we should see MUMBAI a gas city. RIL will then become Rs 10000.

As regards market I am not much worried because earlier we were fighting on more than one fronts such as US crisis, domestic crisis, political issues, oil, inflation, GDP, monsoon and so on. Now with most of the issues perpetually being adjusted the only issue we are fighting at present is OIL. OIL is at all time high and that is troubling the speculators overseas as well as in India.

The only question all speculators have in mind is that how the country will survive…? Oil is at its peak and it will collapse vertically sooner than later. The long term targets are 200 USD and that will happen in next 3 years but we will have to accept the same and live with it.

The current phase is a typical accumulation by the market makers. In every fall also they are buying as if there is no tomorrow. Market is falling but the best part is that there is no complain about the exit in stocks from any body including FII’s. In fact, every day we are getting more and more enquires for bigger blocks.

This shows the game is on. I am bullish and my first target is 5400. Let it cross then I will give more targets. Stocks of choice are Rel Capital, RIL, R Power, RNRL, RPL, IFCI, IDBI, Power Grid, NTPC, Nagarjun Fertiliser, Tata Tea, Tisco etc. Best sell could be HDIL as the story for the time being is over.

For small investors I would still suggest buy cash stocks. Next 3 months everything will double. Maximum stocks where you had stuck are entering in new highs or coming close to earlier highs and investors are getting exit. This is providing liquidity to investor to enter into fresh stories….

The show must go on….

Nothing is more surprising than the easiness with which the many are governed by the few.

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