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Monday, May 12, 2008

Touch of genius...
There were more than 50 SMS and few emails were circulated on Friday that it could be black Monday. Market began to behave in that manner and on short covering recovered smartly mid session. Once again the IIP nos made a trick and market collapsed in fraction of seconds.

But the inevitable was to happen. After sharp falls also market recovered and closed at 140 points plus. This was simply because the short selling was so huge after market broke 200 DMA on Friday traders and punters started taking help of astrology to predict vertical crash.

Even the best funds started advocating sell on rise and market will test new lows of JAN. I too have seen some mails including comments from some chartist. All bullshit.

These guys were sleeping when market collapsed 2200 points in 2 days of JAN 21 and 22. I hope if they had made killing money in that crash every such technical expert could have been owning a house in London instead talking a virar train at 6.50 on the overcrowded on board.

Market today came back and closed at 5027 which is again 200 DMA. Yes it is true that major changes are happening in the positions of planets but to construe that that will help market collapse vertically is impossible. No astrologer has a proven track record of predicting such events on 2 consecutive occasions. Please keep all these non sense things aside and concentrate on screen reading.

It was very well known that market will tire at 5270 or 5280 levels even when it was 4700 levels because of FIBBONICCI levels. Now by the rule book, market can’t break 4830 come what it may….!

Market therefore tested 4925 level with huge bear onslaught from 5280 levels and the bulls work is done.

Now from hereon market will cross 5280 very easily and then race towards 6000. RIL towards 3000/3200.

Why is this…?

Most of the punters and traders are not well versed with economy at large. Just the announcement of IIP nos 3% and street tried to rape Sensex …? Was this IIP no for May 08..? No way. Then why react..?

At the same time nobody is able to see that Govt has silently devalued rupee over 6% in just 2 weeks from Rs 39.5 to 42. This is in order to tackle the decelerating GDP growth. 6% crash in rupee means exports will rise by 18% which in turn will push the GDP very smartly by at least 1%.

Inflation is being tackled separately and GDP and exports are dealt with. With rupee at 42 F M has given open invitation to all foreign funds to bring in smart money in India. Well, at least 6% is assured return because within 6 months Govt will try and restore rupee back to 39 levels once inflation is addressed.

Under this circumstance selling short is suicidal and for sure the inflow will rise very fast. Alternatively have a look at mid cap stocks where volumes are happening. If market had to go back to 4300 levels mid cap volumes will not happen because in real sense we call that market knows it all.

Hugely short market will give you a good opportunity to make killing in this market. My call is remain invested in mid caps. Some times it is possible that even after we identify stock the vested scrupulous operators do not want the price to go up and therefore they keep on suppressing share prices. But all our recommendations have gone through the roof. Minda Ind has moved from Rs 130 to 330 non stop and yet we believe that the stock is grossly under priced. I had said in 2007 that 2008 will belong to auto ancillary. Our sources says Minda has bagged huge order of over Rs 300 crs volsvagon and looking for 3 major acquisitions in UK and US worth Rs 3000 crs. This co will become a fortune co in very short time and I can bet on Rs 1000 target on this co.

Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius, and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction.

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